WHAT ARE ARMENIA’S PROSPECTS IN THE EURASIAN UNION?
Hayots Ashkharh, Armenia
Oct 18 2013
Armine Simonan’s report on interview with political analyst Khachik
Galstyan
[Translated from Armenian]
“Had Russia not initiated the Eurasian Union, it would have been a
defeat for her in the ongoing global competition between the world’s
several major economic blocs. Therefore, it decided to gather around
it countries connected to it with strong economic ties and these are
of course the former Soviet republics,” political analyst Khachik
Galstyan told Hayots Ashkharh in the interview.
Analyzing the meaning of Armenia’s decision to join the Eurasian
economic area, he came to some interesting conclusions.
Economic benefits
First of all, looking at the economic side of the issue, the political
analyst observed that the idea of setting up a Eurasian economic
union was itself a certain challenge aimed at globalization trends
in the world economy. It makes sense as it is necessary to defend
the internal markets of the member countries of the Eurasian economic
area on the one hand, and on the other, to boost the competitiveness
of the Eurasian Union.
Viewing the problem of transport communications as a most serious
challenge, Galstyan expressed confidence that at least two major
problems of Armenia had been resolved at the 3 September talks between
[Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan and [Russian President Vladimir]
Putin.
First of them [was] the problem of the lack of common border with
the Customs Union member states, as well as the problem of transport
communications. “What was an obstacle until now for Armenia to become a
full participant in the process [of Eurasian integration]? Of course,
the lack of reliable transport communications. If you remember even
Prime Minister [Tigran Sargsyan], as well as Deputy Foreign Minister
[Shavarsh Kocharyan], had an evasive attitude towards joining the
Customs Union in view of the lack of common border”.
Currently, it is absolutely evident for the political analyst that
Armenia’s sharp turn to the Eurasian Union took place only after
some solution to the communication problem was offered by Russia. “I
am sure that at the talks on 3 September, Russia has offered such a
model of transport communications, which would permit us to become
a full member of that economic project without having a common border.”
It is known that a solution is the re-launch of the Abkhaz railroad
[via Georgia]. Galstyan believes it is no accident that in the
aftermath of the Sargsyan-Putin meeting, reports on re-launching the
railway were circulated. Even though Georgia was quick to deny the
reports, he nevertheless said that there was a detailed conversation
held or, [as he put it,] “talks are still going on, as there is no
other option and without a secure transport channel the idea of the
Eurasian Union will not be viable”.
A second most important matter negotiated at the talks was the issue
of new investments into the Armenian economy, Khachik Galstyan opined.
“Each integration scheme has to be beneficial to all parties and the
question was what could motivate Armenia to become part of that union.
And of course, these are steps that would invigorate our economy, also
implying financial inflows. It is no accident that the financial topic
was among the top ones at the talks of presidents Sargsyan and Putin,”
[he said].
As the political analyst noted, Russia integrates around it countries
transiting energy resources and if the idea of the project of the
Eurasian economic union is implemented, it would be a major player in
the field of energy resources. Meanwhile, Armenia that lacks energy
resources will ensure itself with these resources in the long run
by joining that great network together with its re-launched Nuclear
Power Plant.
Geopolitical relevance
The decisions made at the negotiations in Moscow carried, apart
from economic, very important geopolitical relevance and, analysing
the political component of the decisions taken, Galstyan said the
following: It is already a long time that other geopolitical players
are rather active in the post-Soviet area and having the aim of
pushing out Russia from its traditional zone of influence.
Galstyan also opined that if in the aforementioned circumstances,
Armenia refused to join the projects of the Customs Union and the
Eurasian economic union, it would have put at stake the viability
of those projects, would damage Russia’s image, which in turn would
have brought about the weakening of Russia’s geopolitical positions in
the region. “After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the idea of the
Eurasian Union is the most global one that Russia is implementing. Had
its strategic partner Armenia refused to join that geopolitical area
that would have served as a trump card in the hands of the opponents of
that idea. They would have said: ‘Russians, your idea is so non-viable
that it does not inspire even your traditional ally'”.
Therefore, Khachik Galstyan does not consider incidental the arguments
brought by international experts saying that Russia has gained the
upper hand over Europe in the current geopolitical confrontation.
“A second factor of geopolitical success was connected to the
settlement of the Karabakh issue, where Armenia has succeeded in at
least conserving the current status quo and got some guarantees from
the Russian partners that the Eurasian integration scheme has some
space for Nagornyy Karabakh, too,” [Galstyan said].
To our request to “open the brackets” Galstyan answered that it
was among the matters that were not normally openly talked about,
but which were an integral part of politics.
[Translated from Armenian]