Journal of Turkish Weekly
October 17, 2014 Friday
Interim mistake
Turkey, Oct. 17 — JTW Op-Ed, Orkhan Valiyev
International relations was created at the Peace Conference of
Westphalia in 1648. Subsequently, world affairs have been regulated by
monarchies, nation states and ideological wars. Now, we find ourselves
in 2014, at the centenary of World War I, as Huntington famously wrote
the world politics has entered a new phase that in which the sources
of conflicts will primarily be cultural.
After the Soviet breakup the West endeavored to remap post-Soviet
geography with revolutions being one of its major instruments. While
these color revolutions were ultimately able to prompt regimes change
in Ukraine, Georgia, the EU failed to eliminate corruption and Russian
presence in Ukraine thereafter, therefore rendering the hopes of the
initial revolution void. Yet looking at it from a different angle,
since independence Ukraine was never able to fully independent due to
the strong influences of both Russian and the West. Here the western
part of the country leaned toward the West, while on the other hand
eastern Ukraine refused to accept western values due in large part to
the high concentration of the Russian speaking minority living there.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia’s popularity has declined
in the post-Soviet geography and the West has been there to try and
supplant by sowing the seeds of democracy, rule of law and respect for
human rights. The West was able to convince of western Ukraine of the
democratization process, and as a result those living there began to
identify themselves as part of the EU even though their country would
never be a full member. The western oriented leadership of Ukraine may
have succeeded in ousting the pro-Russian president but they did not
have any realistic strategy for the future. Subsequently, the
government is still in need of western aid to which end the newly
elected president visited the US on 18 September and held a “historic
speech” at congress asking for support against Russia. He added that
the crisis in Ukraine is a global issue but I argue that despite lond
applause at the congress the Western leadership cannot agree with him
because the world is currently facing such crises and, conflicts that
are much more threatening to global security especially western
interest. Ultimately, the Ukrainian crisis is a regional and even
post-Soviet issue for the west.
Karl Popper described politics as “irrational action”, and in the case
of Ukraine’s interim government that came to power after Yanukovich,
irrational decisions were made which had dire consequences for the
Ukrainian population.
First, with the nullification of the law on minority languages in
Ukraine, the interim government opted to shoot first, think later, an
action which has come at a high price and given the Kremlin a pretext.
Seizing this opportunity, Russia declared that the Russian minority in
Ukraine was in danger, and therewith, a justification for Russian
intervention on behalf of the society of its people was provided.
Second, the interim government hoped for full membership in both the
EU and NATO, but according to the joint Declaration of the Prague
Summit in 2009, participation in the Eastern Partnership does not
guarantee EU membership. In article one of the declaration it is
stated that “The participants of the Prague Summit agree that the
Eastern Partnership will be based on commitments to the principles of
international law and to fundamental values, including democracy, the
rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, as
well as to, market economy, sustainable development and good
governance”. As can be seen the declaration makes no mention of
membership.
Third, as Huntington wrote on his thesis in terms of religion and
ethnicity Ukraine was divided two parts, with the majority of those in
western Ukraine, which saw the first of five movements in the
post-Soviet geography against Soviet authority on the eve of the
Soviet breakup as European. While the opposition leaders successfully
aimed their aggression against at Russia in the western part of the
country, they neglected eastern Ukraine and the Russian presence
there. As Huntington wrote “people can change their religious,
political, and civil identities but they cannot change their cultural
identity”. In addition, economic interdependence is seen by Dale C.
Copeland as the major cause of wars yet this characteristic of
Ukrainian- Russian relations was not aptly recognized by Ukrainian
leaders.
Why Ceasefire won’t stop deaths
On the eve of the Soviet breakup five conflicts emerged within the
post-Soviet geography all of which were frozen by Russian “mediation”.
In the case of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, both sides signed an
agreement but skirmishes and casualties never stopped as the terms of
ceasefire neither released Azerbaijani territories that were invaded
by Armenia exerted any significant impact on the future proceedings of
the negotiation process. In the case of Ukraine, the signing of a
ceasefire agreement in no way ensures that the conflict will truly be
resolved.
First of all, the central government of Ukraine does not have direct
contact with the separatists, thus making any form of negotiation
difficult.
Second, as can be seen in the example of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Russia does not seek to stop deaths or reach a genuine political
solution to the conflict, rather, the Kremlin’s primary interest is
maintenance of its influence over Ukraine.
Ironically, despite the fact that the Kremlin denies its relations
with the separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, during the signing of
the ceasefire agreement in Minsk, representatives of the separatist
did not sign the final peace plan. From my point view, the ceasefire
process proved once again that unless they formulate and pursue a
rational strategy which would guarantee Russia’s interest in eastern
regions, Ukrainian officials will not prevail.
In conclusion, I postulate that Russia will not annex or seize the
eastern regions of Ukraine like it did with Crimea. Nonetheless,
Russia will also never agree to the existence of Western values in
eastern Ukraine and has already successfully planted the seeds of fear
and revulsion which are the major factors of conflict. As Dr Zbigniew
Brzezinski famously wrote “Modern nation-building is a difficult
process. Because it is so complex, the process is easily vulnerable to
nationalistic emotions and, indeed, ethnic antipathies” (The Caucasus
and New Geo-Political Realities). Therefore, Ukraine should formulate
a rational, pragmatic strategy that can act as a guide, and understand
that nations have no permanent friends or enemies, they only have
permanent interests.
Additionally, Ukrainian officials should also heed the words of
Lippmann that “the facts of geography are permanent” when analyzing
its geographical position, Ukraine does not technical fall into Europe
in a geographical sense. Moreover, despite the fact that the newly
elected government signed the Association agreement with the EU, it
will be implemented in 2016, once again proving that Ukraine’s
westernized political elite made a historic mistake. While the fact
remains that the Russian economy has seen declined, the country still
have formidable influence over the post-Soviet geography and the
Ukrainian officials have failed to balance their relations with the
Kremlin. Consequently, Putin hold all the cards in his hand.
Unfortunately, despite the repulsion of the population of western
Ukraine towards Russia it will be unable to institute a central
government without Russian participation.