Author: Kanayan Tamar

Yerevan Considers Consultations between Armenian and Azeri FMS as Useful
PanARMENIAN.Net
06.10.2006 19:08 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian and Azeri FMS Vartan Oskanian and Elmar
Mammadyarov meet under the aegis of the OSCE MG co-chairs in Moscow
October 6. During consultations in the Russian MFA the Ministers
referred to issues that are still unsolved in the Karabakh talks,
as well as ideas of the co-chairs regarding overcoming those
differences. According to Oskanian, the Armenian party evaluates
the consultations as positive, noting that the issues raised by the
co-chairs during these will be seriously discussed in Yerevan before
the next meeting that is scheduled in late October.

Turkish economy may become growth engine of Europe
FreshPlaza, Netherlands
Oct 6 2006
Turkish Industrialists & Businessmen Association (TUSÝAD) Chairman Omer
Sabancý has stated that Turkey could not be a member of the European
Union without convincing the European public opinion, and added “Truths
about Turkey should be told. A fair evaluation should be made. Turkey’s
membership in EU is an additional value for all. Turkish economy may
become growth engine of Europe. ” TUSÝAD Chairman delivered a speech
in Paris, France at a panel titled ‘Global Challenges of Europe and
Turkey’ within the scope of Turkish Week.
Reminding that the TUSÝAD demanded the abolition of article 301 of the
Turkish Penal Code within the context of freedom of expression, Sabancý
went on to say, “When we make steps toward more freedom of expression,
I cannot comprehend the attitude on freedom of expression in France”,
referring to recent attempts in France to legislate a prohibition on
any speech against alleged Armenian Genocide issue. Sabancý added
he thinks such an attitude befitted a country fearing the truths.
–Boundary_(ID_WRRHv8aPhRO4BctAvft1pA)–

GUL – REHN JOINT NEWS CONFERENCE
Turkish Press
Oct 5 2006
ANKARA – “Turkey is aware of its deficiencies in the EU membership
process. The most important things are the determination, the capacity
of overcoming difficulties and showing everyone that we have that
capacity,” said Turkish Foreign Minister & Deputy Prime Minister
Abdullah Gul on Wednesday.
Gul held a joint news conference together with EU Commissioner for
Enlargement Olli Rehn.
“Mr. Rehn’s visit coincided with the first anniversary of the opening
of entry talks between Turkey and the EU. We have recorded important
developments last year. Turkey has maintained the screening process
successfully. We consider the negotiation process a transformation for
Turkey. We also consider this process a period of modernization and a
period of increasing our standards to the level of EU-member states,”
he said.
“Turkey is aware of its deficiencies in the EU membership process.
The most important things are the determination, the capacity of
overcoming difficulties and showing everyone that we have that
capacity. Therefore, we need the negotiation process,” he said.
Gul kept on saying, “Turkey has become a center of economic
attraction since October 3rd, 2005. We will continue fulfilling our
commitments. We expect the EU to contribute to our efforts in this
process.”
Upon a question about the Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code (TCK),
Gul said, “we have a long negotiation process ahead of us. We will
increase all standards in Turkey.”
When asked whether the resolution in France envisaging to punish
those who deny the so-called Armenian genocide was against freedom of
thought, Gul said, “during my meetings in France, I stressed that the
resolution was nothing but a contradiction. I hope that the resolution
will be rejected.”
Upon another question about proposal of Finland on the Cyprus issue,
Gul told reporters, “if we succeed in resolving the Cyprus issue,
it will be beneficial for everyone. Together with Greece and Cyprus
as a whole, we can create an area of cooperation in the eastern
Mediterranean. Turkish Cypriots have fulfilled their responsibilities
to this end. We expect the same positive attitude from the other
party. We told Finland which holds the rotating EU presidency, that if
isolation of Turkish Cypriots was lifted, we could take some tangible
steps. However, no one should expect Turkey to take unilateral steps
as long as the isolation continued.”
Speaking at the news conference, Rehn said that there was a difficult
and long period ahead of Turkey. He said that both Gul and he was
determined to this end, adding that Turkey and the EU would work
together to find solution to several problems which would enable the
parties to maintain the negotiation process.
Noting that he came to Ankara to mark the first anniversary of the
opening of entry talks between Turkey and the EU, Rehn said that the
Progress Report to be released in the coming weeks would include many
developments and several deficiencies.
Rehn told reporters that they were aware of the current threat of
terrorism, adding that terrorism jeopardized not only Turkey but the
whole world.
He said that they appreciated the reform process in Turkey, noting
that there were still many things to do.
Rehn stressed that his meetings in Ankara focused on freedom of
expression and freedom of religion.
He highlighted importance of Turkey’s fulfilling its commitments
stemming from the additional protocol extending the Customs Union
deal to cover the whole EU-member countries during the presidency
of Finland.
Referring to the Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code (TCK),
Rehn said some people in Turkey were tried because of their critical
attitude. He said that those trials stemmed from indefinite expressions
in the article.
Upon a question about the so-called Armenian genocide, Rehn said that
recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide was not a pre-condition
neither in Turkey’s negotiation process nor in the full membership
process. He highlighted importance of creating an appropriate
atmosphere for discussions over the issue in order to provide an
atmosphere of compromise between Turkish and Armenian societies.

TUSIAD HEAD SABANCI: “FRANCE’S STANCE SHOWS ITS FEAR”
Turkish Press
Oct 5 2006
Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (TUSIAD)
Chairman Omer Sabanci yesterday criticized the French bill proposing
punishment for people who question the so-called Armenian genocide,
saying that he couldn’t see a French measure restricting expression as
suitable while on the contrary Turkey is taking steps to expand freedom
of expression. “This stance belongs to societies which are afraid
of the truth,” said Sabanci. TUSIAD held a panel called “Europe’s
Global Difficulties and Turkey” in Paris as part of Turkish Week,
marking the first anniversary of the beginning of Ankara’s European
Union membership talks. Taking the floor at the panel, French Trade
Minister Christine Lagarde pointed to Turkey’s importance and said,
“France trusts in Turkey’s future.”

TURKEY AGAIN URGED TO STEP UP REFORMS, AVOID ‘TRAIN CRASH’
Doha Time
Gulf Times, Qatar
Oct 4 2006
ANKARA: Turkey faces a “train crash” in its relations with the European
Union if it fails to step up democratic reforms and resolve a trade
row with Cyprus, EU enlargement chief Olli Rehn said here yesterday.
The stern warning came on the first anniversary of the inauguration
of Turkey’s accession talks and just weeks before the EU issues
on November 8 a crucial report on the country’s progress towards
membership.
“I want to make sure that the first anniversary (of the talks) is
not the last one,” Rehn told a news conference. “I want to work for
avoiding a train crash in Turkey-EU relations.”
Highlighting the benefits of Turkey’s EU membership, the enlargement
commissioner said it would ease mounting tensions between the West
and Muslim countries if Turkey carries out the necessary reforms and
meets all EU criteria.
“In the current situation when… relations between Europe and Islam
is the greatest challenge of our time, it simply won’t make sense to
allow the things to lead to a train crash,” he said.
Rehn urged Ankara to pass reforms to ensure freedom of speech,
a major area of concern after dozens of intellectuals were charged
with denigrating the Turkish nation under a penal code article, and
to grant trade privileges to Cyprus under a customs union agreement.
“Freedom of expression is a cornerstone of our common democratic
values. I cannot even imagine a member of the EU that will not
respect such a fundamental European principle,” Rehn said earlier at
a conference on trade union rights.
A string of intellectuals, including best-selling writers Orhan Pamuk
and Elif Shafak, have stood trial under Article 301 of the penal code,
which envisages up to three years in jail for insulting “Turkishness”
and state institutions.
No one has yet been imprisoned under the provision, but the
appeals court in July upheld the suspended six-month sentence of
a Turkish-Armenian journalist, setting an alarming precedent for
pending cases.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he is open to proposals
to amend the article, but no action has been taken so far amid vocal
opposition by nationalist-minded Justice Minister Cemil Cicek.
Speaking after talks with Rehn, Cicek rejected EU pressure to
amend Article 301 before the crucial November 8 report, arguing that
“parliament is not under the government’s command,” and that an upsurge
in Kurdish rebel violence this year was making it harder for Ankara
to expand freedoms.
He also charged that freedom of speech was being breached in EU
countries, pointing to a French draft law that would make it a
punishable offence to deny that the massacres of Armenians under the
Ottoman Empire amounted to genocide.
“While asking why freedom of expression is being restricted in Turkey,
one cannot turn a blind eye to a draft law that will be taken up on
October 12 in an EU country,” he said.
On the row over Cyprus, Rehn said he was hopeful that a formula
proposed by the EU’s Finnish presidency would resolve the stalemate.
Turkey is under pressure to open its air and sea ports to the
internationally recognised Cyprus government under a customs union
agreement with the EU, or face a suspension of its membership talks.
Ankara insists that Cypriot ships and planes will remain barred from
Turkish ports unless the EU unless delivers on its promise to ease
trade restrictions on the island’s breakaway Turkish Cypriot state,
recognised only by Turkey.
“The Finnish formula has not been rejected by any of the parties so
far, including Turkey,” Rehn said. “I trust all parties sense the
seriousness of the issue and try their best to find a solution.”
He also called on Ankara to improve the rights of women and non-Muslim
religious communities as “other very important issues of urgency.”
In another sticking point, Rehn urged the government to keep up reforms
to strengthen civilian control over the influential Turkish military
“like in any European democracy.”
On Monday, chief of staff Yasar Buyukanit angrily rejected EU criticism
of its influence in politics, saying that the charges had exceeded
“the limits of tolerance,” and asserted the army’s right to have
a say on issues concerning national security and the protection of
Turkey’s strictly secular system.
Rehn was scheduled to meet with Erdogan, Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul as well as other officials before he wraps up his visit tomorrow.

VISIT OF DELEGATION HEADED BY FRENCH PRESIDENT JACQUES CHIRAC TO ARMENIA FINISHES
Noyan Tapan News Agency, Armenia
Sept 2 2006
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 2, NOYAN TAPAN. The representative delegation headed
by President of the Republic of France Jacques Chirac, having been
on a state visit in Armenia from September 29, left Yerevan in the
midday on October 1. RA President Robert Kocharian with his wife Bella
Kocharian saw off the President of France, his wife Bernadette Chirac
from the “Zvartnots” airport of the capital. RA NA Deputy Speaker Vahan
Hovhannisian, Minister of Territorial Administration Hovik Abrahamian,
Minister of Foreign Affairs Vartan Oskanian, other officials
participated in the ceremony of seeing off the French delegation.
At the beginning of the seeing off ceremony, Mr. and Mrs. Kocharians
and Mr. and Mrs. Chiracs addreesed, with shaking hands, wishes of
succeess to members of the French and Armenian official delegations,
then they recieved the rank of the RA Armed Forces guard of honour.
The two countries’ heads and their wives bade farewell to one another
with huggings at the stairs of the French President’s plane.
J.Chirac, before entering the plane, bent and rose his hand, as a
token of farewell with friends, then crossed both hands keeping high,
as a token of the French and Armenian peoples’ friendship.
The first place in Yerevan which the French President visited on
early September 30, within the framework of his state visit, was the
Tsitsernakabert memorial complex to Armenian Genocide victims.
“Remember.” Jacqeus Chirac wrote down only this one call in the
memory register of the Armenian Genocide Museum-Institute, after
putting flowers to the memorial to Genocide victims and getting
acquainted with materials of the museum-institute. He also planted a
tree of memory, a silver glance fir tree, in the alley of memory of
the Armenian Genocide memorial complex.
Then the solemn opening ceremony of the French square in Yerevan took
place with participation of the Presidents of Armenia and France,
during what J.Chirac and R.Kocharian made long speeches symbolizing
the Armenian-French centuries-old friendship. After that they directed
to the presidential residence, where, after a private conversation
taken place here, they held a joint press conference.
Responding journalists’ question, the two countries’ Presidents touched
upon the present state of the Karabakh conflict settlement, bilateral
cooperation in the economic, educational, cultural, interparliamentary
and interregional spheres, state of the regions neighboring to Armenia,
the Armenia-European Union, Armenia-Turkey, Turkey-European Union
relations, the issue of Turkey’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide.
Particularly, the two countries’ delegations continued discussions
of issues relating to the bilateral economic cooperation during the
working banquet organized by RA President Robert Kocharian.
R.Kocharian and J.Chirac were present at the “Charles Aznavour and His
Friends” open-air concert in the Republican square on late September
30. The national year of Armenia in France entitled “Armenia, My
Friend” started with these events.
On October 1, the last day of the French President’s visit, His
Holiness Karekin II Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians
received him. J.Chirac got acquainted with the exhibition of the
“Treasures of Etchmiadzin” museum of the Mother See as well.
To recap, Minister of Foreign Affairs Philippe Douste-Blazy, Minister
for Transport, Infrastructures, Tourism and the Sea Dominique Perben,
Minister of Civil Service Christian Jacob, Minister of Culture
and Communication Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres were in the official
delegation staff headed by the President of France. Businessmen,
representatives of science, education, culture and sport sphere,
members of the French Armenian community, more than 45 journalists
also accompanied J.Chirac.
To recap, the President of France is the second from the UN Security
Council members and Presidents of the G8 countries who visited
Armenia. J.Chirac received R.Kocharian’s invitation to visit France
still during the visit paid to France in 2001. To recap, Armenia was
the second CIS member country after Russia where the President of
France visited.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Montreal Gazette, Quebec
Oct 1 2006
The Armenian church of canada’s anniversary celebration of the
country’s independence was a fun-filled success, raising $200,000
for two children’s hospitals View Larger Image
Chair Sossi Manoukian (left), Miss Universe Canada 2006 Alice Panikian
and co-chair Marcelle Lavoie Meterissian at a gala organized by the
Armenian Church of Canada.
Photograph by : PHIL CARPENTER, THE GAZETTE
JENNIFER CAMPBELL, Freelance Published: Sunday, October 01, 2006
Mission love: One year ago, dynamic Bishop Bagrat Galstanian, primate
of the Armenian Church of Canada, envisioned a noble “mission of love”:
The church would host a gala fundraiser titled Let There Be Light,
Let There Be Life, with a view to commemorating the 15th anniversary
of the independence of the Republic of Armenia while simultaneously
celebrating Canada and generating revenue for sick children.
How’d the love mission work out? Well, why don’t you be the judge?
Exhibit Food: Mounds of P.B. Banquet’s authentic Armenian appetizers
(including positively perfect Armenian mini-pizzas) flooded the food
front, followed by an impeccable filet mignon feast.
Exhibit Decor: Exquisitely appointed bronze table settings (think
lofty candelabras atop incandescent cloths) dotted the ballroom,
tailored to the Windsor’s Old World allure.
Exhibit Entertainment: There was puhlenty of E-stuff, including a luxe
silent auction; captivating video address (from such notables as PM
Stephen Harper and filmmaker Atom Egoyan); emcee-escapism, courtesy
of comic surgeon Sarkis Meterissian and young Charlot Daghlian;
plus non-stop dancing thanks to the Family Affair Orchestra and DJ
Hye Class.
Exhibit VIPs: Ahem, 300-plus were in the house, a la dedicated
chairesses Sossi Manoukian (with John Manoukian) and Marcelle Lavoie
Meterissian (with Sarkis Meterissian); Suzanne Tailleur Tremblay with
mega-mayor Gerald Tremblay; well-spoken special guest (and staggeringly
stunning man magnet) Miss Universe Canada 2006 Alice Panikian; elegant
Maroush and Power Trading power-VP Ara Soukiassian; Armine and Razmig
Margoosian; Nayira and Arman Agopian, charge d’affaires, Embassy of
the Republic of Armenia in Canada; Adrineh and lead sponsor, MJI power
pres Mardig Jorjezian; opposition party leader Noushig Eloyan; city
councillor Mary Deros; dashing Andy Habib with Chanel Canada’s Anny
Kazanjian (trendsational in a Chanel sheath and pearltastic vintage
choker); Lise and Daito Group chief Vartan Toroussian; Ardene stores’
toppest Arden Dervishian with glam wife Christine; Liberal leadership
candidate Stephane Dion (sporting a rather smart bow tie); Paula and
Armen Aprikian; and Hera and Ari Demirjian.
Exhibit $$: Close to $200,000 was raised for the Montreal Children’s
and Ste. Justine hospitals.
Now if your party verdict isn’t positive and you don’t think mission
love was a rousing success, I surrender!
Centaur triumvirate triumphs: After having perused the silent-auction
loot and consumed copious amounts of Bon Appetit appetizers, I do
admit to almost giving in to the call of the clicker and making a
pre-performance beeline for the door. But alas my columnist conscience
beckoned. And I’m so glad it did. The informal stage-chat that Centaur
artistic director Gordon McCall conducted with esteemed Canadian
playwrights David Fennario, Vittorio Rossi and Michel Tremblay was at
once informative, fascinating, entertaining and inspiring. Each of the
evening’s 3 Voices spontaneously revealed snippets from his respective
life that gave the audience keen insight into what motivates the craft
and makes a world-class playwright tick. For your Sunday enjoyment,
some snippets of snippets: Come hell or high water, Tremblay produces
first drafts in a prolific 11 days; one reason Rossi chose playwriting
over novels is adjectives aren’t his thing (Vittorio if you need a few,
I’m your girl); and Fennario elegantly clarified his natural affinity
for dialogue: “I’ve been listening to bulls–t stories my whole life!”
Not surprisingly, the audience ate it up. The event attracted 200
Centaur VIPs including Nancy and 3 Voices chairperson James Grant;
Viviane and senator Francis Fox; committee and board members Carolyn
Renaud (with Richard), Janet Black (with Hans) and Alison Silcoff
(with Joel); he-who-decorated-the reception-in-the-trendiest-way
designer Mitchell Davey (who, scoop, spent a remarkably parsimonious
$250); Gordon’s lovely wife Eloise McCall; Gretchen Evans; Darlene and
Ottawa-based philanthropist Dave Smith (who made one heckuva celebrity
auctioneer); Marika Teakle; Angela Chen and John, founder/owner of the
Montreal Retina Institute; Nina and Tom Harrington; Lilian Vineberg;
UTS Energy executive chairman Dennis Sharp; Claire Chaillez and
SNC-Lavalin executive VP Pierre Duhaime; and David Horlington. Yup,
the 3 Voices were heard (and loved!) helping to generate over $100,000
for one of Montreal’s most venerable cultural institutions. Encore!
A terrific TAKE: The recent TAKE fashion extravaganza at the Best
Western Hotel Europa was a lotus of a treat for all 270 present
as co-chairs Shivendra Dwivedi and Geeta Suchak immersed guests in
Bollywood beautiful. Lead sponsors included The Marcelle and Jean
Coutu Foundation, Stikeman Elliott, Scotia Bank and Saputo.
Our exotic journey began with an elaborate cocktail (dipped in Taj
Mahal-chic), where authentic Indian fare was washed down with a medley
of Smirnoff’s mango, guava and passion fruit martinis.
Caught thoroughly enjoying their first-class trip2India were
Pradeep with honorary chair Manishi Sagar (Kinderville Group CEO
and Canada’s 32nd most powerful woman); Mr. Schwartz’s himself,
Hy Diamond; Tatyana Reeve; honorary consul of the Republic of Yemen
Shirish Suchak with beautiful wife Vina; Carolina Richer Lafleche;
Amy Marleau (autumn-awesome in leggings and a tempting trench);
CJAD masters Stuart Nulman and Jill Fitzgerald; Naveen Tambhkoowala;
stylish city counsellor Catherine Sevigny; Binny and Ravi Mehra;
jazzy Jay Gould; Katie and Arun Mehra; Baton Rouge restauratrice
Chris Ann Nakis; Ravi Chhabra; and finance guru Ermes De Domenicis.
Next, patrons moved on to the fashion component of the evening,
choreographed by Suhaila Niazi Khan with makeup by Mindy Shear and
hair by Carte Blanche. (Exemplary emceeing was furnished by event
driving force, CJAD journalistic wonder Eramelinda Boquer). And that’s
where the TAKE came in, standing for The Alia Khan Experience – Khan
being one of the globe’s most successful Indo/Western designers, who
left us all more than a little awed by her exquisite and remarkably
wearable designs.
All of the above plus close to $20,000 for the Freedom from Poverty
Foundation (established in Montreal by professor T.D. Dwivedi and son
Shivendra) currently working to build a medical and education centre
in Uttar Pradesh, India.
Bollywood beautiful? U bet!

CHIRAC: TURKEY SHOULD RECOGNIZE “ARMENIAN GENOCIDE” FOR EU MEMBERSHIP
Azeri Press Agency
Sept 30 2006
France’s President Jacques Chirac visited monuments of the false
“Armenian genocide victims” in Yerevan, APA reports.
After laying a wreath on the memorial, the French President visited
“genocide” museum. Then France square was opened in the center of
Yerevan and it gave start to Armenian year in France. France President
made public appearance that was not planned. He talked with common
people for half an hour.
In the press conference held in Yerevan, Chirac said that if Turkey
wants to become EU member it should recognize “Armenian genocide”. He
said France accepted a special document on the alleged genocide that
denounces any demonstration of racism and xenophobia.
Armenia-born French singer Charle Aznavour and other artists will
give a concert program in the Republic Square, Yerevan. Armenia-born
French footballer Yuri Jorkayev is also in the French delegation
visiting Armenia.

ON US-UK POSITIONS AT THE UNITED NATIONS ON CONFLICTS IN SOUTH CAUCASUS – EXPERT
Vano Tumanishvili is a freelance journalist
Regnum, Russia
Oct 1 2006
The USA and Great Britain cannot depend on the UN arena in settling
conflicts in Moldavia and South Caucasus. Both countries, as well as
Russia, realize in detail different sides of the conflicts and have no
illusions regarding the availability of political approaches to their
solution. States-co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group and Great Britain
have had at their disposal all possible tools of exerting pressure
and coercion in the process of solving the Nagorno Karabakh problem.
Problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, of course, have not been
considered within the so much institutionalized mechanism as the
Minsk group; however, the available mechanisms also seem to be
quite adequate. Georgian conflicts have long been in the focus of
the international community. Such organizations as NATO, EU, and
EC have repeatedly spoken about and took part in the discussion of
the problems. From the very start of launching the initiative of
discussing the problems within the UN, especially as a priority,
especially after the relevant statement of the head of the Russian
Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov, – not a single leading expert, not a
single active politician in the West attempted to refute or analyze
doubts which this initiative aroused.
According to US and British experts, after such a detailed discussion
of the issues in the European structures, it is hard to imagine their
objective and close analysis at the UN that does not have mechanisms
of executing such a task in a working regime. It is suggested that the
UN has to create a special structure, a group or a commission for the
further examination of the issues, which in any case will lead to an
extended and ineffective bureaucratic process. Most unexpected events
may unfold in the process, creating quite unpleasant precedents for
the leading world powers.
British experts concede that nobody among the British and US expert
community has anything to do with the said recommendation. They
contend that after the attempts to force Armenia to accept a conflict
settlement scheme suggested by the International Crisis Group in winter
2006 failed, a certain grouping in the government of Great Britain,
headed by representative of prime minister to South Caucasus Brian
Fall, as early as in April 2006 proposed an attempt to transfer the
discussion of the Nagorno Karabakh problem to the UN.
The idea of discussing conflicts in Moldavia and South Caucasus at
the UN arose somewhat later. However, it was exactly Brian Fall who
discussed the initiative with the heads of foreign political offices
of Georgia and later Azerbaijan (exactly in this succession). Already
after the discussions, an idea of putting forward the initiative in
the UN by the GUAM countries broke the surface. Undoubtedly, the key
factor in putting forward the initiative and involving in it the US
and Great Britain is a game around the Georgian political theme.
The Nagorno Karabakh and Transdnestr factors per se play a minor or
subordinate role. It is necessary thereby to analyze the hierarchy
of tasks to be solved, by the initiators’ design. The idea was also
discussed with representatives of a number of European countries
and high-ranking officials at the Council of the European Union and
the OSCE.
Great Britain, Poland, and Lithuania have reportedly conducted at
the European Commission and European Parliament a substantial work on
the issue of Russia’s politics in the Georgian direction. Supposedly,
the work was rather successful. Energized effort to study the issue
has been seen at the European Commission and the European Parliament,
where the working staff received relevant instructions on preparing
suggestions on the matter.
Apparently, the suggestions include assessments of Russia’s
policymaking and the situation in the Russian-Georgian relations,
including the issue of peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. Most probably, preparation of political initiatives by the
EU concerning parallel GUAM initiatives at the UN is taking place.
The task is to ensure political solidarity of the USA and the European
Union concerning their Russian agenda.
A principal agreement between Europeans and the US on the matter is
limited by the terms of individual discussion of each initiative.
Essentially, Great Britain and countries of Eastern Europe try to
surpass positions of France and Germany and use the potential of the
European Union in their anti-Russian activities. British politicians
count that PACE and OSCE are not effective mechanisms in carrying out
the eastern politics, since Russia herself uses the arenas to defend
her own interests.
Russia tries to use PACE and OSCE for legitimate discussion of a
number of problems related to her involvement into other countries’
affairs and maintaining her presence in conflict zones. Thereby,
the European Union has been chosen, in which Russia has no formal
influence. In this regard, opinions of experts at the German Schiller
Institute that holds a rather anti-British position are of interest.
According to the experts, Great Britain suffers significant problems
with Russia on issues of oil business.
Despite good positions in Russia, British capital may face serious
problems concerning reserve redundancy and access to large oil
fields. Besides, some particular problems are apparently at issue.
For example, the US-British tandem is very concerned with the
Russian-German-French integration in the energy sphere.
Besides, the US and Great Britain are quite concerned with the
possibility of “conspiracy” on the part of Russia, Germany, France,
and, possibly, other European states regarding Ukraine, including
extending NATO. Hence, Great Britain attempts to get support of
Eastern European countries in consolidating the EU in the anti-Russian
direction. Hence, the new scenarios of pressurizing Russia are being
devised by the British politics.
These scenarios make exploring the version of the “British Caucasus
Project” as a global initiative of pressurizing Russia from the
southern strategic direction a relevant task. It is exactly in the
context of this version that the GUAM initiative at the UN has to
be assessed.
Lowering risks in the mode of maintaining tensions
Confrontation between Georgia and Russia, and, correspondingly, in the
conflict zones in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, exceeded the manageable
level and became a powerful factor of threats and risks in the South
Caucasus where the US-British energy complex functions. The European
community failed to reduce the confrontation, its many initiatives
only proved infeasibility of such efforts.
The US and UK for quite a long time led the game of suppressing
conflicts, before construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
completed. After the project was completed, both countries attempted
to exert pressure on Russia to solve problems unrelated to South
Caucasus. The goals were earlier defined and are elements of US and
British strategies in Eurasia. For the last months, the two powers
have been carrying out the policy of inciting controlled confrontation,
which has become more than dangerous.
Russia did not concede in any direction, and did not give Georgia
or any of her partners any signs in the direction of lowering
confrontation. A decisive move became pertinent in order to transfer
responsibility for the developments in the region to such a high
arena as the UN.
Consequently, internationalization of the conflicts had to
be maximized, Russia regarded as a party to the conflicts,
and, if possible, Russia’s role as a “party” to these conflicts
institutionalized. By this, an attempt to simultaneously increase
pressure on Russia, get control over the confrontation vector,
and create grounds for furthering the geopolitical and geoeconomic
expansion in the Caucasus and Caspian region was performed.
Satisfying ambitions of partner states
The USA and UK, although successfully ignored interests of their
partners in the South Caucasus, forcing on them some imitation conflict
resolution processes, cannot absolutely deprive them of favorable
expectations about the conflicts’ settlement. Apart from hopes given to
the ruling elites, the elites are in their turn expected to give hopes
to their people, on which the sustainability of the ruling regimes
depends. All ruling regimes of the GUAM member countries go through
a serious political crisis and need a systemic support from abroad.
Technologies of persuasion
The US and UK have no recommendations on settling conflicts in Moldavia
and South Caucasus in the given geopolitical situation.
Forcing Armenians, Abkhazians, and Ossetians to submit to the states
concerned will lead either to resuming war or genocide -and what is
traditionally referred to as humanitarian catastrophe.
No coercion methods are available in the western community’s Caucasus
policy reserve. For the most part of the history of the conflicts’
settlement, the US and UK tried to persuade Georgia and Azerbaijan that
solving the conflicts by political means was impossible and solving
them by military means – inadmissible. This is a very complex task
for the countries’ western partners, for the process of discussing
the issues at the UN may become an interesting arena for persuading
the ruling teams and the peoples of Georgia and Azerbaijan that
political solutions to the conflicts are unreachable, at least in
the foreseeable future.
The US and UK, undoubtedly, have corresponding developed scenarios for
the discussion of the problems at the UN. Although detailed information
on the scenarios is so far unavailable, it can be assumed that their
designers are going to stick to the practice of imitating the process
of conflicts’ settlement.
Enhancing and consolidating GUAM positions
The GUAM bloc, despite the number of attempts to make it effective and
assign to it particular geopolitical functions, has not and cannot
become effective, for it is a union of weak states, mediums of very
contradicting and mutually exclusive interests, and does not have a
strong leader. The US are trying to assign to GUAM some particular
functions, first of all, of protecting energy communications and
confronting Russia, which is not very expedient to Ukraine, Moldavia,
and Azerbaijan.
Besides, Ukraine, however started to make one-sided statements in
favor of Georgia and Azerbaijan, makes them timidly, not striving to
undertake military and political tasks to solve the problems.
Devising common political tasks for GUAM countries is an important
objective of the US policymaking. At a closed-door classified
seminar at the American Institute of Entrepreneurship (Republican and
rightist US think-tank) held in September 2006, US State Department
Under Secretary for Democracy and Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky
(daughter of Ukrainian anti-Soviet nationalist) sketched the US’
goals for the GUAM. The goals envision, first of all, pulling the bloc
countries into common for all the member countries political projects,
first of all, related to creating a new political reality in Eurasia,
as well as in the security field.
Paula Dobriansky in her report contended that GUAM member countries
policymaking has to reflect policymaking of states that belong to
the democratic world. She argued that Ukraine qualifies to become
a leader of the said states, taking into account her economic and
military potential. Hence, the situation in the vast space of Eastern
Europe and Eurasia depends on the political fate of Ukraine.
Representative of the National Intelligence Council and Brookings
Institute Program Director Fiona Hill informed seminar attendants
that the security situation in the Black and Caspian Sea region was
far from normal, pendency of old conflicts required taking measures to
relieving tensions, which was impossible without active participation
of the international community.
So far, solving merely individual security issues has not led to
achieving stability in the region. The possibility of emphasizing
the roles of the UN and OSCE in relieving tensions was mentioned,
however, nothing definite was said of settling conflicts as such.
Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Frederic Starr pointed
out that creating GUAM and other regional blocs was incapable of
solving security issues in the region.
Anyway, taking decision on the GUAM countries’ accession to NATO
is necessary, upon which premise the US strategy in the region has
to be built. Any doubts in this regard cause much disappointment in
the countries of the region. According to Starr, the international
community has not been sufficiently involved in resolving conflicts
in the South Caucasus.
The seminar participants agreed that the need to involve the UN in
solving the issues has become pertinent. The seminar’s objective
appeared to be affirmation of the idea to transfer the problems of
the region to the UN arena.
The problem of expanding NATO
The US advocate including Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, even if at the
cost of degrading defense, political, and economic standards accepted
in the alliance. This became a subject of principal discussion within
NATO, in which not only the leading European states, but also other
states of the alliance are involved. France and Germany, although have
not made the issue one of the priorities of their domestic policies,
i.e., have not initiated parliamentary or political discussion of
the problem, unequivocally pronounced their opinion, pointing to
the negative objectives that can be discerned behind the new stage
of expansion.
Despite the UK government and generals’ support of the plan in bulk,
there are serious doubts concerning it in the British establishment,
including the ruling party politicians. According to assessments of
British liberal experts, NATO bureaucracy is inspired by the experience
of the alliance membership by states that to the moment do not meet
the alliance criteria, are not successful in participation in various
initiatives, and send military contingents to armed conflict zones.
That is, the leading NATO states are quite satisfied with the role of
the new alliance members. The contradictory positions are a source
of great concern for the US, for there are so far no hopes for a
successful accession to NATO by the new members. Expanding NATO
requires new argumentation, including substantiating new threats.
For the United States, it seems very important to convince the
international community of the reality of threats posed by Russia,
first of all, in regional directions. Russia has to appear as a country
who impedes conflicts resolution, occupies territories of states under
the pretext of maintaining peacekeeping forces, carries out political
subversion against ruling regimes, and uses energy resources for
political means. Besides, of the set goals, withdrawal of peacekeepers
from Georgia and troops from Moldavia are the priorities. The US and
UK are striving to unfold at the UN a prolonged propaganda process.
Absorbing Armenia
The US regard Armenia as a nation that has not so far chosen its
geopolitical orientation. According to confessions of US administrators
and experts, the US influence in Armenia is more significant than in
Azerbaijan and some other US partner countries.
Geopolitical blockading of Armenia with the help of the GUAM bloc
would lead the country to understanding that the western orientation
has no alternatives.
The US cannot achieve the goal and re-orient Armenia by exploiting
the Nagorno Karabakh issue. Therefore, the Nagorno Karabakh problem
is of no interest to the US from the point of view of geopolitics
and security. Americans bet on changing the geopolitical situation
in the South Caucasus.
The joint initiative of GUAM at the UN looks like multi-goal
and quite effective from the point of view of creating solidary
foreign policy. The US set no goals in the direction of Nagorno
Karabakh problem, since its development would yield no advantages
strategically. However, from the propaganda point of view, it could
create some additional arguments for the campaign. The US need to
solve some tasks on Moldavia and Georgia.
Conclusion
According to approximate estimations of British experts, joint
discussion on the Transdnestr, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, and Nagorno
Karabakh issues at the UN is impossible, even given that some working
structure will be created in the course of taking certain decisions.
The initiative has very unclear outlooks. The US and UK will not
insist on taking too uncompromised decisions.
It should not be ruled out that Georgia and Moldavia will insist on
a decision on the occupation by Russia part of their territories and
withdrawal or rotation of conflict zones’ peacekeeping forces. The
goal here is to create an utterly unfavorable situation for Russia and
stage an international condemnation of her policymaking. The states
of the European Union are likely to support the anti-Russian stance
of the initiator countries and produce assessments and decisions
directed against Russia.
It should be taken into account that projecting of the South Caucasian
policy is conducted in a very secluded framework – by the staff of
EU’s High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy
and US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs
Daniel Fried. That is, the planning is utterly non-participatory
and non-transparent, and almost unconnected to parliaments and civil
societies.
It has also to be taken into account that the UN decisions on conflict
issues will be taken in the situation of severe confrontation,
caused by positions of different states on the USA, for example,
by the Muslim countries’ positions. Azerbaijan will apparently try
to put forward the initiative in an integrated form, by integrating
conflict issues in one problem. Georgia, undoubtedly, will attempt to
present her problems individually, on pragmatic grounds. Moldavia will
attempt not to hurry and take a mainstream of pursuing the initiative.

INTER-STATE FORUM “DAYS OF ARMENIA IN SIBERIA” TO TAKE PLACE IN KRASNOYARSK FOR FIRST TIME
Siberian News Online, Russia
Sept 28 2006
Inter-state cultural and business forum “Days of Armenia in Siberia”
is to take place in Krasnoyarsk in International Exhibition Business
Center “Siberia” on October, 3-6 for the first time.
Guests arrive from Armenia to enlarge economic and cultural relations
with Russian biggest region, the press service of IEBS Siberia
reported. The regional center will be visited by members of Armenian
Government, mayors of Armenian biggest cities, representatives of big
business, the Union of National Commodity Producers of the republic
and cultural figures. They will be having meetings with authorities
and businessmen of Krasnoyarsk Territory in IEBS Siberia for 4 days.
On October, 4 the delegation is to meet with Krasnoyarsk Territory
governor Alexander Khloponin and Krasnoyarsk Mayor Pyotr Pimashkov.
On the same day Armenian businessmen will participate in the panel
discussion with members of Central Siberian Commercial and Industrial
Chamber, Krasnoyarsk Territory Union of Industrialists and Businessmen,
and the Union of Commodity Producers and Consumers.
The cultural and business forum will start with the presentation of
the republic and an exhibition opening, where food and industrial
goods of Armenia will be presented on October, 3. In particular,
one will be able to see national crafts of stone, wood, cupronickel,
silver, ceramics, golden and diamond jewelry, drinks and equipment.
Trade exhibition of the goods made in Armenia will take place in
Krasnoyarsk on October, 5 and 6. Famous Armenian singers and musicians
will give two concerts as part of the cultural program. One of the
concerts will be given in International Exhibition Business Center
“Siberia”, the second – in the Big Concert Hall of the regional
philharmonic society.