Author: Kanayan Tamar

RUSSIAN EXPERT: AZERBAIJAN CAN WIN ONLY A BLITZKRIEG BUT THIS SCENARIO IS IMPOSSIBLE

arminfo
Wednesday, October 12, 17:10

Neither of the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will undertake
a big war, Russian political scientist Andrey Yepifantsev said in an
online interview given to ArmInfo in the framework of the “Alternative
Information in the Armenian-Azeri Dialogue” project of the Region
Center (Armenia) and the Peace and Democracy Institute (Azerbaijan).

“Azerbaijan will be able to beat the Armenians only in case of a
blitzkrieg but this scenario is impossible. If the war drags for more
than 5-7 days, Azerbaijan will face the ‘pipe’ factor: the countries
on the other end of the pipe, i.e. those receiving oil and gas from
Azerbaijan, will force the Azeris to stop the war. So, there will be no
big war. On the other hand, if the current status quo is continued, in
some 10-15 years the blockade-ridden Armenia will be so much exhausted
economically that the blitzkrieg scenario will become possible. Once
this happens, Azerbaijan will not miss its chance,” Yepifantsev said.

He believes that the change of the negotiating format is possible.

There are four scenarios: 1. continued ineffective talks and a
possible blitzkrieg by Azerbaijan; 2. refusal to continue the talks
and a consequent 10-year pause under international non-resumption
guarantees; 3. continued talks and simultaneous efforts to force
the Armenian and Azeri societies into mutual concessions; and 4. a
settlement formula imposed by an international coalition.

“For the moment the signing of a framework agreement on Nagorno-
Karabakh is impossible,” Yepifantsev said.

POPULATION CENSUS KICKS OFF IN ARMENIA

arminfo
Wednesday, October 12, 13:14

The population census kicked off in Armenia and will continue till
October 21.The results will be summed up in late September of early
October 2012, Karine Kuyumjyan, Head of the Department for Census and
Demography of the National Statistical Service of Armenia said earlier.

Census takers are to have special certificates and submit
questionnaires including 33 points on the sex, citizenship, marital
status, religion, disability, housing conditions etc.

“The confidentiality of data received during the census is guaranteed.

Information will be used only in statistics,” Stepan Mnatsakanyan
said earlier.

He said that some 2.5bln AMD will be spent on the census. 2bln AMD
have already been provided: 56% by the Government of Armenia and
the rest – by international donor organizations, the governments
of Norway, Switzerland, India, the United States and Italy, UNFPA,
the World Bank and the Armenian Office of UNHCR.

The first census in independent Armenia was held Oct 10-19 2011. Then
the population of the country exceeded 3,200,000.

FRANCE RECOGNIZED ‘TSEGHASPANUTIUN,’ SAYS SARKOZY

asbarez
Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Sarkozy greets the crowd at France Square

YEREVAN-Saying the terrible events at the turn of the last century
reinforced the friendship between Armenians and French, France’s
President Nicolas Sarkozy said “France has recognized the crime
against a whole nation,” calling it “Tseghaspanutiun” (The Armenian
word for Genocide).

“Turkey should look its history into the face,” added Sarkozy during
the opening ceremony of the Charles Aznavour Museum, which was attended
by the world renowned singer and President Serzh Sarkisian.

The comments came a day after Sarkozy urged Turkey to face history
and recognize the Genocide, adding that proper and additional measures
would be required if Turkey failed to do so.

Sarkisian and Sarkozy unveil the Rodin sculpture Sarkozy’s comments
were swiftly criticized by the Turkish foreign ministry, which in a
statement said Turkey was astounded and deeply regrest the statements
by the French President.

“Such an inconsistent and imprudent handling of this serious
matter that has human and moral dimensions is unfortunate. Political
declarations based on one-sided information and reflecting accusatory
judgments regarding historical events are very far from the fair
approach that this issue requires and demonstrate a failure to
even comprehend Turkey’s approach on the matter,” added the foreign
ministry, which claimed that “this painful part of our long history
with the Armenians can be freely debated in Turkey, unlike in some
countries that are party to this issue or others that are not.”

“What is expected from France is to make a positive contribution
to this process and to adopt a responsible approach and discourse
that would show care to avoid both damaging the multi-dimensional
relationship between Turkey and France and offending the Turkish
community in France,” said the statement.

Turkish Prime Minister Recept Tayyip Erdogan was more crass in his
criticism saying that Sarkozy was using the “Turkey card” to secure
his re-election and warned that serious damage come to France-Turkey
relations.

Erdogan condemned Sarkozy as he addressed the Turkish parliament on
Tuesday. “This is not political leadership. Politics, first of all,
requires honesty,” reported Agence France-Presse.

“There are 600,000 Armenians in your country but also 500,000 Turks.

You have relations with Turkey,” Erdogan continued, addressing
Sarkozy. “Bearing the title of statesman requires thinking about next
generations, not next elections,” he said.

At the ceremony in Yerevan Sarkozy also addressed the unilateral
blockade of Armenia by Turkey.

“Despite the lasting blockade, the artificial isolation and the
sufferings, the 20-year-old Republic of Armenia has managed to
withstand all challenges thanks to the virtues of its people, their
diligence and the desire to succeed, features which admire Armenia’s
friends, particularly France, convincing everyone that Armenia will
be able to withstand the future challenges, as well,” he said.

“No country will understand what Nagorno Karabakh means to Armenia
better than France. Seventeen years after the war, which caused so
many deaths and sufferings, the time has come to resolve the conflict
and find the way to reconciliation. I’ll also deliver this message
to President Aliyev in Baku. The history of France and Germany shows
that even the biggest pain can be softened and the deepest hatred
can be overcome, and even during the most difficult moments of their
history peoples can find the strength for reconciliation,” Nicolas
Sarkozy said, adding that the friendship between Germany and France
is the cornerstone of Europe today.

“You, Armenians and Azerbaijanis, should choose this path. The time
has come for you to make a risky choice for peace, as there is no
bigger danger than the preservation of status-quo which gives birth
to illusions, provokes revenge and moves off all the prospects for
peace,” he said.

“There exists one format to bolster the efforts of the international
community for the settlement of the Karabakh issue – the Minsk Group.

Each of three Co-Chair states enjoys the confidence of two sides and
is involved in the process of definition of conditions for conflict
settlement. But the Armenians and Azerbaijanis themselves should find
this path themselves. We can help, but we can never establish peace
instead of you,” Sarkozy stated.

Following the museum opening ceremony, Sarkozy was on hand at
Yerevan’s France Square for the unveiling of sculpture by renowned
artist Auguste Rodin of painter Jules Bastien-Lepage. The sculpture
is a gift of the French Republic to the Republic of Armenia.

SARKOZY ET LE CERCLE DE PAIX CAUCASIEN
Par Christian Makarian

L’Express, France
11 oct 2011

Au cours d’une sequence diplomatique d’une rare intensite, Nicolas
Sarkozy s’est pose en Armenie, en Azerbaïdjan et en Georgie en
sautant par-dessus les haines ancestrales et la menace omnipresente
de la guerre.

Il est des regions du globe qui suscitent l’emphase – et les drames –
plus que d’autres. Pouchkine l’avait parfaitement saisi: “Le Caucase
est sous moi. Venu seul jusqu’en haut, je domine la neige au-dessus
de l’abîme.” Comme pour illustrer ces vers celèbres, Nicolas Sarkozy
vient de survoler trois petits pays enclaves entre mer Noire et
Caspienne, trois nations esseulees qui peuplent une des zones les
plus strategiques du voisinage europeen. Au cours d’une sequence
diplomatique d’une rare intensite, il s’est pose dans chacune des
trois capitales en sautant par-dessus les haines ancestrales, les
lignes de front, les blocus et la menace omnipresente de la guerre.

Au carrefour de trois empires qui n’entendent rien ceder – Russie,
Turquie et Iran -, le chef de l’Etat a pu mesurer combien il est
plus facile de faire la guerre au-dela des mers, comme en Libye, que
d’instaurer la paix entre des pays qui ne l’ont jamais connue. Dans
cet etonnant couloir caucasien, barre de montagnes, marbre d’ethnies,
lacere par les clivages religieux et traverse par un oleoduc decisif,
il existe une profonde “demande de France”, que Nicolas Sarkozy aura
le merite d’avoir comprise bien mieux que tous ses predecesseurs.

Dans le Caucase, il existe une profonde “demande de France” En Armenie,
pro-russe, recu comme l’incarnation moderne d’une protection seculaire,
il a su raviver une relation qui remonte aux Croisades. La manière dont
le president francais a exprime ses convictions quant au genocide subi
par les Armeniens en 1915 est très symptomatique de la “diplomatie
de conviction” qui fait tant horreur aux adeptes du style cynique,
si longtemps dominants. Tout en etant un partisan declare de la
reconciliation turco-armenienne, qu’il a de nouveau appelee de tous
ses voeux, Sarkozy a su parler le langage de la verite : “Il ne peut
pas y avoir de reconciliation durable sur la negation des souffrances.”

A ceux qui regrettent que la France ait, une fois encore, irrite la
Turquie au detriment de juteux contrats, il est facile de repondre. En
deux points. Premièrement, le Premier ministre turc, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, a franchi un tel cran dans les rodomontades anti-francaises
que le president francais a choisi d’assumer les consequences de sa
prise de position, claire et nette, contre l’entree de la Turquie
dans l’Union europeenne – en echange de laquelle il propose un schema
d’association extremement avantageux. Deuxièmement, les pretentions
d’Ankara a prendre artificiellement le leadership du printemps arabe –
alors qu’Erdogan etait initialement oppose a l’intervention de l’Otan
en Libye ! – vont a l’encontre du nouveau rayonnement de la France
en Mediterranee. Avec un certain humour, et le sens du tragique,
Sarkozy a pris l’habitude de dire, au soir de ses etapes: “Avec qui
allons-nous nous fâcher demain ?” Pas avec l’Azerbaïdjan, en tout
cas, pays pro-turc auquel Paris offre un “partenariat strategique”
et qui a recu, par la meme occasion, la première visite d’un chef
d’Etat francais.

Mais c’est en Georgie, pro-americaine, que le president francais a ete
accueilli comme un sauveur refusant le “fait accompli” par les Russes,
avec l’arrachement de l’Ossetie du Sud et de l’Abkhazie. Le souvenir
de son engagement eclair au côte du peuple georgien, en août 2008,
est reste visiblement très present dans les memoires. Et le silence
de cette foule rassemblee et attentive ne peut etre oublie lorsqu’un
Sarkozy, empreint de gravite, se risque a demander aux Georgiens,
en depit des bravades de leur president, d’envisager leur avenir dans
la paix retrouvee avec la Russie.

On dira encore que, vu l’etat du monde, le Caucase n’est guère une
priorite de notre politique etrangère. Peut-etre, mais c’est la où
la France est attendue que se joue aussi son avenir. Chez celui
auquel les diplomates ont tant reproche d’avoir ete “brouillon”,
voila une vraie ligne de force, qui, mine de rien, contribue a la
lente emergence d’une vision.

IRAN DONATES BOOKS TO ARMENIA

FARS News Agency, Iran
October 10, 2011 Monday

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran’s cultural attaché office in Armenia donated 350
books to Mogri library in a move to spread Iran’s Islamic culture in
the country.

According to the public relations department of Islamic Culture and
Relations Organization, book donation to the cultural complex was one
of the programs of Iran’s cultural attaché office during Iran-Armenia
friendship week, IBNA reported.

During the program, which was held with the attendance of Armenia’s
deputy culture minister, managers of Yerevan and Mogri Authors’
Center as well as cultural figures, experts delivered speeches about
the importance of books and reading.

Then Iran’s cultural attaché Mohammad Reza Shakiba donated 350 books
to the library’s manger, and said,” The books will introduce the
knowledge of Islamic-Iranian civilization and culture to Armenians
and holding such ceremonies will boost friendships.

YEREVAN TO HOST GOLDEN LADLE FESTIVAL OF ARMENIAN DISHES

Panorama, Armenia
Oct 10 2011

The Armenian-French Training Center will host the Golden Ladle
Festival of Armenian National Dishes on October 14, organizers of
the festival said.

The festival aims to preserve and spread traditional Armenian foods
and dishes, to promote the exchange of experience between different
culinary schools of the Diaspora, and to create an All-Armenian
Culinary Association.

A cooks forum will be held as part of the festival on October 14.

All-Armenian Culinary Association will be established on the sidelines
of the forum.

The festival has been initiated by the Ministry of Diaspora,
“Development and Preservation of Armenian Cuisine Traditions” NGO,
and the Armenian-French Training Center.

10-MAN IRELAND MAKE IT TO EURO 2012 PLAY-OFFS DESPITE LUNATIC REFEREE

JOE.ie, Ireland
Oct 11 2011

yesterday at 7:54 pmIreland made it to the Euro 2012 play-offs tonight
with a nerve-wracking 2-1 victory over Armenia, a game notable for
two harsh red cards from erratic referee Eduardo Iturralde Gonzalez.

Ireland were gifted an early advantage in the 26th minute tonight after
Armenian goalkeeper Roman Berezovski was harshly sent off for handball
outside his area. The ‘keeper came outside the box to impede a shot
from Simon Cox although admittedly the West Brom striker could have
been booked too, having used his arm to control the ball beforehand.

Referee Eduardo Iturralde Gonzalez had already made himself a YouTube
sensation last week after accidentally tackling a Valencia player
during a La Liga tie and his decisions tonight should only enhance his
reputation as a show-stealer. All the same, Ireland were glad to have
seen the back of Berezovski, who had made a bright start to the game.

Things only got better for the Irish just before half time through
one of the worst own goals you’re ever likely to see, after Armenian
defender Aleksanyan put the ball in his own net, under no pressure,
from a ball played across the goal. All in all, comical refereeing
and comical defending papered over the cracks of what was an average
first half Irish performance.

A demoralised Armenia were initially a shadow of their former selves
in the second half, and Ireland took advantage in the 59th minute when
a wonderful cross into the box was missed by Kevin Doyle but managed
to hit off Richard Dunne’s crotch and went in the net. Considering
every orifice of Dunne kept us in the away game against Russia,
we’ll give thanks to his crotch tonight.

Two minutes later, however, poor defending led to a goal from Armenia’s
Henrik Mkhitaryan, who ended Ireland’s eight-game clean sheet streak
with surprising ease.

A reckless challenge from Kevin Doyle later in the game meant that the
Wolves striker would be ruled out of the first playoff leg for Ireland,
but it got even worse for the 28-year-old after he was sent off in
the 80th minute for leading with an elbow when leaping for a header.

Doyle’s dismissal was particularly worrying for Ireland as his early
bath came just one minute after Simon Cox was substituted for Jon
Walters, the third sub, meaning Ireland had no strikers for the final
ten minutes. Worse still, a clear penalty for Stephen Hunt was denied
minutes later, as referee Gonzalez once again made his presence known
for all the wrong reasons.

In the end, Ireland hung on for the win and settled for second spot
in the Group B, after Russia ran riot over a hapless Andorra for a
6-0 victory.

ARMENIAN ‘GENOCIDE A SWORD OF DAMOCLES’ FOR TURKEY

news.az, Azerbaijan
Oct 11 2011

An Iranian diplomat has commented on the significance of the Armenian
“genocide” issue for Turkey, following the French president’s visit
to Yerevan.

Mohammad Farhad Qoleyni, Iran’s former ambassador to Armenia, made
the remarks in an interview with the Iranian Diplomacy news agency,
reported by Times.am.

“Turkey is troubled. If it recognizes the Armenian ‘genocide’, new
demands will be made of it. The Armenian ‘genocide’ is a sword of
Damocles hanging over Turkey,” Qoleyni said.

The Iranian official thinks Turkey is afraid the Armenians will demand
territory from Turkey if Ankara officially recognizes the Armenian
“genocide”. This would take the Armenian “genocide” process to a
new stage.

According to the former ambassador, European countries, especially
France, use the Armenian “genocide” as a way to exert pressure
on Turkey.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said during a visit to Yerevan last
week that Turkey should recognize that the “genocide” took place.

The Turkish government denies that the killings of Armenians in the
latter days of the Ottoman Empire were the result of a state policy
of genocide.

OLD MISSILES TURNED OUT TO BE YOUNG
by Svetlana Gamova

DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 10, 2011 Monday

THE ENDING OF THE SCANDAL RELATED TO THE AIRPLANE FROM LIBYA THAT
TRANSPORTED MISSILES FROM MOLDOVA TO ARMENIA WAS AS LOUD AS ITS
BEGINNING; Mass media of Chisinau published a new list of the Moldovan
armament sold to Armenia. Contrary to assurances of the Moldovan
officials, they turned out to be not outmoded but quite combat capable.

Mass media of Chisinau published a new list of the sold Moldovan
armament. Contrary to assurances of the Moldovan officials, they
turned out to be not outmoded but quite combat capable.

Journalists understood that not everything was in order with the
“Libyan airplane” at the very start when it landed in the airport
of the Moldovan capital on September 12. First, this was a military
airplane and it arrived from Benghazi second, it flew to the military
airport in Marculesti almost immediately and departed from there
being loaded.

The Defense Ministry of Moldova explained afterwards that armament
with expired service life was onboard. According to the ministry,
the cargo was addressed to “one Latvian company” registered in Riga
that was not named due to the reason of “commercial secrecy.” However,
there appeared new information: Defense Minister of Moldova Vitalie
Marinuta reported in the parliament, although without disclosure of
commercial secrets, that the armament was intended for Armenia. Then
the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan invited Ambassador of Moldova
in Baku Igor Bodiu to provide explanations. After the meeting with
representatives of the Azerbaijani authorities he announced that the
loud deal with the Moldovan armament supplied to Armenia was nothing
more than a “sad mistake” that nonetheless “brought an unpleasant
aspect to our bilateral relations.” Expert of the Geneva center for
democratic control over armed forces Viorel Cibotaru confirmed that
the armament was sold to Armenia. Cibotaru also said that the deal
was legitimate and the cargo included missiles.

In any case, it seems that the government will have to explain to
the government and the public why the armament has been sold to a
zone with a frozen conflict. OMEGA agency also reported referring
to its source in the Ministry of Economy that the difference between
the value of the contract and the market price of the sold armament
was not less than $5 million. This meant that the products were sold
cheaply. According to the agency, the secretly sold lot included some
of the most expensive armament models of the national army. Among them
were control and checking systems 9V862 and 9V863 of Cobra missiles,
as well as 9V871-3 for antitank missile systems Konkurs-M. The market
price of each of these systems exceeds $60,000. The lot also included
thousands of missiles Fagot, Konkurs, Shturm-S and Metis. The market
value of only these specifications of the sold armament exceeds $5
million. Besides these types of armament the contract also included
launchers for antitank missiles that, according to the document of
the Defense Ministry, were also sold at an obviously undervalued price.

BAKU CALLS FOR STARTING WORK ON KARABAKH PEACE AGREEMENT WITHOUT STATUS DEFINITION

Interfax, Russia
Oct 10 2011

The ongoing occupation of Azeri lands by Armenia is the main problem
in the Karabakh peace process, Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov
told reporters on Monday.

“If the Armenian armed forces leave the occupied lands, the region
will have broad opportunities, communications will be unblocked and
refugees will go back home,” he said.

The occupation of lands and the remaining refugees are the main problem
of the negotiations; the status of Karabakh may be set in the future,
he said. “All of us, including the Armenians, realize that the status
cannot be defined now. That can be done at the last phase only,”
he said.

The cochairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group will visit the region at the
end of this month. “We agreed to carry on the negotiations. Consent
was reached in certain areas, and the progress must not be wasted,”
Mamedyarov said.

There are a number of difficulties at the negotiations, he said.

“There are some questions in which it is hard to find a compromise
formula. We must work on that. There are some unsolved problems,
which must be tackled at the negotiations,” he said.

The minister once again called for starting the work on a peace
agreement without coordinating fundamental principles first.

“Our failure to coordinate these principles is a small problem. The
issues in which the sides cannot coordinate fundamental principles
so far can be resolved in the drafting of the main agreement,” he said.

It is necessary to deploy peacekeepers in the conflict zone, the
minister said. “If the Armenian forces free the territories and the
refugees come back to their lands, their security will have to be
provided. We do not trust the Armenians and they do not trust us,”
Mamedyarov said.