STILL THE PRESIDENT
WPS Agency, Russia
February 20, 2013 Wednesday
by Yuri Siminjan
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No 33, February 20, 2013, p. 7
ARMENIA: THE REGIME HAS TO DEAL WITH ARDENT PRO-WESTERN OPPOSITION;
Serj Sargsjan remains the president of Armenia.
The Armenian Central Electoral Commission toted up votes and published
results of the presidential election. Incumbent chief of state Serj
Sargsjan won the election in the very first round with just under 60%
votes cast for him. Legacy party leader Raffi Ovannisjan, once the
republican foreign minister, finished the race with the unexpected
36%. There is a new opposition in Armenia these days and its leader
is capable of challenging the regime.
Five other participants in the presidential race finished it with
between 0.24% and 2.15%. Observers and commentators guessed that
Ovannisjan would come in second but nobody expected him to do so
with such flair. (The tension had been much higher and the situation
simply unpredictable during the previous election of the president
in Armenia… but Levon Ter-Petrosjan had finished the race with
under 25% votes.) Most specialists expected Ovannisjan to vie for
the second result in the race with ex-premier Grant Bagratjan and
dissenter Paruir Airikjan. In any event, the gap between the results
demonstrated by Ovannisjan and all others took everyone by surprise.
There are three factors that Ovannisjan apparently owes this stunning
success to. His presidential campaign was more people-oriented and
less lofty than the campaigns of all others. Addressing potential
voters, Ovannisjan used simple language and spoke of things people
understood. Besides, he was careful to do without overly dramatic
criticism of the powers-that-be.
Gyumri, the city that traditionally opposes the central government,
became the second factor. Devastated by the 1988 earthquake – actually
razed to the ground, Gyumri is still healing… so many years after
the tragedy. A host of unsolved problems accounts for the locals’
critical attitude toward the authorities. Throughout the years of
sovereignty, Armenian opposition was always able to count on support
in and from Gyumri. According to some reports, Ovannisjan beat even
Sargsjan’s results in Gyumri.
The so called advanced technologies are the third factor or third
pillar of Ovannisjan’s successful performance in the presidential
race. Activists of his Legacy party made full use of social networks
during the campaign. This activeness had its effect on the outcome
of the election.
As a matter of fact, Ovannisjan’s performance played into the hands
of the central government too. What with his 36%, nobody will dare say
the presidential election in Armenia was anything but free and fair.
Save for Sargsjan, all other participants in the race called the
election rigged – following the tradition observed in all post-Soviet
countries. Each of them announced that he had really polled 15-20%
more than the Central Electoral Commission reported. It did not matter,
really. The candidates were just going through the motions.
They never expected their formal protests to make any difference.
Sargsjan remains the president.
Sargsjan has five years to groom a successor. Five years from now
Ovannisjan just might become a favorite of the next presidential
race… which is not what official Yerevan wants, of course. Legacy
party leader has the time and the willingness to boost his political
clout in the interim. There are lots of unsolved problems in Armenia
and the authorities had better try to solve them at long last.. or
in the next bid for the pinnacle of political power Ovannisjan will
certainly capitalize on the regime’s incompetence.
And Russia will have to take heed and do something worthwhile with
regard to Armenia… unless its wants the Americans to strengthen
their positions in this part of the Caucasus, that is. Not that
Ovannisjan is a Washington’s puppet, of course, but the fact that
his second citizenship is American is telling, isn’t it?
WPS’2013
[Translated from Russian]