IT HAD ENDED BEFORE IT STARTED
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 12:21:52 – 24/06/2011
We asked Igor Muradyan, political scientist, to comment on the
current situation regarding Karabakh and the motivation and aims of
the stakeholders.
The so-called present stage of the settlement is interesting as it
unveils the aims of both the conflict sides and the external sides.
Azerbaijan is facing the challenge of further use of the tactics
of coercion and blackmail. This tactics cannot be described as
non-effective. However, all the cards are open, and what next? Once
run out of coercion devices, the result could be a large-scale war
which would lead to the collapse of the Azerbaijani state, destruction
of the Azerbaijani armed forces, and a high rate of casualties among
civilians, as well as destruction of energy infrastructures.
Therefore, Azerbaijan which feels that the policy of pressure and
coercion is understood by different states is ready to use tough
methods, hoping to avoid total war until it gets guarantees of success
and support from the outside.
Turkey is increasingly interested in the resumption of military actions
with a well-thought scenario, a matrix, controllable war though it
is clear that Ankara is not sure of the possibility of application
of this warfare model and is still cautious of being engaged in a
second Karabakh war. Nevertheless, Turkey would rather wish to dare
signal Azerbaijan to start a war rather than a war itself.
The United States is concerned about the possibility of resumption of
war more seriously than ever because it absolutely contradicts to its
strategy, considering the launch of a systemic regional war. However,
the Americans aren’t hiding their wish to punish Azerbaijan’s obstinacy
and stupid arrogance, and only the Armenian army can punish it. A
controllable matrix war would come as a gift for the Americans because
it would allow to loosen the Turkish-Russian alliance, display the
inability of both Turkey and Russia to control the situation, as
well as engage NATO and the EU in the South Caucasus and Black Sea
processes, at the same time blocking Iran in the north.
The United States is going to control the region alone, at a
“macro-level”. It was necessary to read some Armenian political
scientists (the political scientists, not the “advocates” of leaders
and their alleged partners in Moscow) more attentively to understand
that the pause in the U.S. policy in different regions implied
just a slowdown of activity rather than waiving participation and
strategic goals.
The Europeans openly mocked at Georgia as a highly unsuccessful
American experiment, and cynically continue to track the developments
in the region. Nevertheless, the Europeans could take a more active
part in the destiny of the region, beyond the framework of NATO.
Iran is highly worried, has serious concerns about the possible
change of situation in Karabakh and is ready to offer Armenia a
great deal of political and economic resources in return for a more
distinct and understandable position. Armenia seems to have signaled
its genuine aims to Iran, and Iran is ready to believe it but the
external circumstances look so threatening that Tehran continues to
doubt Armenia’s intentions. Iran would like to solve the issue with
Armenia since the solution of analogical problems with other partners
is impossible, there are not such and will not be. The events in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Syria and the South Caucasus are evidence that Iran
is close to the solution of the problem of revision of political
configuration, there are no other ways of solution of national
security problems.
Russia’s behavior is abominable. It is trying to create an image for
its government in the eyes of the West and at the same time pacify
Turkey and Azerbaijan, crawling to the West and its new “strategic”
partners in original caps. Moscow has sensed the approaching of the
moment of truth when everyone will realize that it is not hegemony
and a great power and is, of course, unable to settle any conflicts.
Present-day Russia is a weak and humiliated regional state and is
unable to understand that the Americans will let it down in the
Karabakh conflict, like in the Georgia-Ossetia conflict.
Russia hoped for a chance to creep away in the pause which the
Americans took in the Black Sea-Caucasian conflict. However, the
pause was conventional, and apparently the new stage of the American
expansion in the region has started but the balance of forces is
different. Most probably, the emergence of the “third force” is not
close, but the Americans enjoy observing the movement of everyone in
the region in a holiday mode. The “Third Force” means conservation
of all the possible actual conflicts and occurrence of new conflicts
which have not actualized yet, including ethnic and political conflicts
in the Caucasus and the Black Sea.
Basically, the interests of the United States and Iran are getting
closer, and if in the Near East the United States acted against the
Shiite zone to balance the situation, soon the United States and
Europe will demonstrate interest in strengthening the Shiite alliance.
In this context, the South Caucasus and the Near East are “linked”
through Iran.
In the context of these large-scale developments Armenia looks too
local. Armenia is excusing itself and hiding behind the back of
its Karabakh vassals and nationalists which have been forced beyond
marginals, into partisans. However, this appeal is so belated and
credible that nobody and nowhere will believe this. As it was stated
earlier, the guys on the front line will have to work hard rather
than the comical leaders of political parties.
Therefore, the situation in the country must not be aggravated, and
if Armenia wants to ensure the security of the generations to come,
the present generation must destroy Azerbaijan as a state and as an
ethnic community. There are favorable conditions for that. There
cannot be another chance. As to the presidential business trips,
they had ended before they started.
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22356.html