Author: Jalatian Sonya

As the sun rises over the picturesque city of Antalya, a historic moment unfolds, signifying a potential thaw in the frosty relations between neighboring nations. Ararat Mirzoyan, Armenia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, is set to grace the Antalya Diplomacy Forum from March 1-3, marking a significant gesture of diplomacy towards Türkiye. This visit not only underscores a commitment to dialogue but also sends a powerful message of hope for a future where mutual understanding and cooperation can flourish.

In the labyrinth of international relations, the path towards reconciliation is often fraught with challenges and setbacks. However, Mirzoyan's decision to attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum is a testament to the resilience of diplomatic efforts. This isn't the first time the Armenian Foreign Minister has participated in the forum, which speaks volumes about the ongoing commitment to engage in meaningful dialogue. The forum provides a unique platform for leaders from various countries to come together, discuss pressing global issues, and explore avenues for cooperation.

The significance of Mirzoyan's visit extends beyond the bilateral relations between Armenia and Türkiye. It unfolds against a backdrop of complex geopolitical dynamics, including recent remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin on US relations and Russia's actions concerning Estonia's Prime Minister over Soviet monuments. These developments highlight the intricate web of international relations and the importance of diplomatic engagement in navigating these challenges. As countries grapple with their histories and seek to forge a path forward, the role of diplomacy in bridging divides and fostering peace becomes increasingly paramount.

While Mirzoyan's visit is a hopeful sign, it also underscores the myriad challenges that lie ahead. The journey towards normalizing relations between Armenia and Türkiye will require not only political will but also a deep commitment to addressing longstanding grievances and building mutual trust. The Antalya Diplomacy Forum offers a rare opportunity for open dialogue, which could pave the way for more substantive discussions in the future. However, the success of these diplomatic endeavors will ultimately depend on the willingness of both parties to engage in a process of genuine reconciliation and cooperation.

As the Antalya Diplomacy Forum draws near, the eyes of the world are on Antalya, watching as history is made. Mirzoyan's visit signifies a beacon of hope for a region long marred by conflict and division. In the intricate dance of diplomacy, every step forward is a victory, and this visit may very well mark the beginning of a new chapter in the relations between Armenia and Türkiye. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but the promise of peace and cooperation offers a compelling reason to persevere. As nations come together in the spirit of dialogue, the possibility of a brighter, more harmonious future emerges, reminding us all of the transformative power of diplomacy.

Karen Kocharyan from Armenia is the principal cellist of the Shenzhen Symphony Orchestra. He praises Shenzhen as a developed city, an international city, and a philharmonic city. #GLOBALink

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09:04 pm | Updated 09:06 pm IST – Yerevan

Armenia has suspended its participation in a Russia-led security bloc, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview published on Friday, Yerevan's latest step to distance itself from Moscow.

Russia and Armenia have traditionally been allies but relations soured last year when Russian peacekeepers did not intervene to stop Azerbaijan taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh from the Armenian separatists who ran the enclave.

"In practice, we have frozen our participation in this organisation," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the France 24 channel, referring to the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

The bloc, a defence pact, is led by Russia and comprises several former Soviet republics.

In recent weeks, Yerevan has been awash with claims that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is seeking to make monumental changes to the country’s constitution ahead of a potential agreement to normalise relations with Azerbaijan. Though constitutional reform has been policy for all successive administrations, on January 19, while visiting the Ministry of Justice, Pashinyan made it clear that he would like changes to extend well beyond that.

“[…] the Republic of Armenia needs a new Constitution”, Pashinyan said. “Not constitutional amendments but a new constitution”.

On January 23, the Ministry of Justice submitted a reform plan recommending that the current system of rule by a “stable" or “majority” system of governance should be transformed into a minority model to make it less likely for one party to monopolise power. In particular, however, the constitution “should make the country more competitive in the new geopolitical environment”.

The Armenian opposition reacted harshly, interpreting his words as confirmation of Yerevan being ready to make more concessions to Baku in order to sign a long-delayed peace deal. In particular, those critics believe that the government intends to remove a controversial preamble to the existing constitution that refers to the 1990 Declaration of Independence.

The declaration mentions a 1989 joint decision on the “Reunification of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh”. In August last year, Pashinyan had already fuelled such speculation by noting that the declaration contained a “confrontational narrative with[in] the regional environment that [has] kept us in constant conflicts with our neighbours”.

Speaking on 24 January, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan confirmed Baku had raised concerns with the preamble and other legislation. Discussion would likely be part of talks, he confessed, but on February 1 Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev warned that failure to change the constitution could prevent any agreement.

Yerevan is quick to point out that constitutional reform has long been planned. Pashinyan gained power in 2018 when Serzh Sargsyan attempted to retain power past his two-term limit presidency by becoming prime minister under a constitution reformed three years earlier. Pashinyan attempted to reform the constitution in April 2020, but was prevented from doing so by the pandemic, the 44-day war and snap elections held post-conflict.

Since last year, however, the opposition has also accused Pashinyan of seeking to usher in a ‘fourth republic’ to distance himself from the third, the post-Soviet Republic of Armenia formed in 1991. On February 1, in an interview with Armenian Public Radio, he did not deny such claims. Critics have claimed that could extend to changing state symbols.

Last year, for example, Pashinyan took exception with the some of the current symbols on the country’s coat of arms, and especially the depiction of Mount Ararat in neighbouring Turkey. This year, National Assembly President Alen Simonyan also suggested changing the anthem, something that he has advocated for since 2019, almost a year after Pashinyan’s 2018 Velvet Revolution.

In 2004, Georgia had also changed its state symbols following the Rose Revolution in 2003. This included the flag, coat of arms and national anthem.

The opposition claims that the electorate would reject such changes, especially if the it believed that pressure from Baku was behind them, and possibly even from Ankara. But there are other potential obstacles too. For a referendum to pass, not only should over 50% of voters agree, but turnout should exceed 25% of the country’s electorate.

Even if Armenians were to accept the changes, given the low voter turnout in last year’s Yerevan’s municipal elections, that could prove a tall order. According to others, including Pashinyan ally Aram Sargsyan – brother of the late Defence and Prime Minister assassinated in the parliamentary shootings of 27 October 1999, holding a referendum alongside snap-elections could be a possible solution.

This matches other rumours suggesting that early parliamentary elections could be held given Pashinyan’s falling ratings. Though the opposition is hardly popular, government support could drop even lower by 2026 when the next elections are scheduled.

"As far as I understand […], they will hold the referendum this fall at the latest, and I have no doubts that it will be held on the same day as fresh parliamentary elections", Sargsyan told RFE/RL’s Armenia Service last week. "I think they wouldn't mind […] this spring [but] organising a constitutional referendum takes a lot of time".