Lecture: Can Arab Monarchies Endure a 4th War In The Persian Gulf?

PRESS RELEASE
ARPA Institute
18106 Miranda St. Tarzana, CA 91356
Contact: Hagop Panossian
Tel: (818) 586-9660
E-mail: [email protected]
Web:

ARPA Institute presents the Lecture/Seminar: `Can Arab Monarchies
Endure a Fourth War In The Persian Gulf?"," by Dr. Joseph A
Kéchichian, on Wednesday, March 28, 2007 at 7:30 PM at the Merdinian
School auditorium.

The Address is 13330 Riverside Dr., Sherman Oaks, CA 91403.
Directions: on the 101 FWY exit on Woodman, go north and turn right on
Riverside Dr.

Abstract: The main topic of the lecture will be the inevitable
nuclearization of Iran and how that may usher in a permanent shift in
the regional balance of power of the Persian Gulf. The presentation
will attempt to answer questions relevant to Armenia, because of
potential spill-over effects throughout the region. In new regional
confrontations that may draw Turkey into indirect action, what occurs
in Iran, or elsewhere in the Gulf area will have an impact on
Armenia. Among the many concerns that the presentation will address
are: What will the burden of a nuclear Iran be on small and medium
size countries? How have conservative Arab Monarchies in the Persian
Gulf withered tribute and time to three major wars as they protected
common interests for the past twenty-five years? If in the past, Arab
Gulf monarchs cajoled Iran and Iraq and, when that failed, aligned
themselves with World powers to preserve and protect their regimes,
can they address new challenges likewise? Can savvy rulers prevent a
fourth regional war before the first decade of the 21st century is out
in the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq? Can they
prevent a similarly argued call for regime change in the Islamic
Republic? Can they protect vulnerable societies from more harm or
will the Gulf Cooperation Council states hide behind `spillover’ fears
and, by doing so, postpone the inevitable reckoning that their rapidly
evolving nations demand of paternalistic leaders? Will domestic
tensions, regional upheavals, and international competition prevent
them from applying tested methods to survive? Ultimately, how long
will savvy Gulf monarchs succeed in deferring political and
socioeconomic reforms, as they prepare for the tangible repercussions
of what could well be yet another war looming over the horizon?

Dr. Joseph A Kéchichian is the CEO of Kéchichian & Associates, LLC, a
consulting partnership that provides analysis on the Arabian/Persian
Gulf region, specializing in the domestic and regional concerns of
Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates and the Yemen. He received a doctorate in Foreign
Affairs from the University of Virginia in 1985, where he also taught
(1986-1988), and assumed the assistant deanship in international
studies (1988-1989). In the summer of 1989, he was a Hoover Fellow at
Stanford University. 1990-96, he was an Associate Political Scientist
at the RAND Corporation, and a lecturer at the University of
California in Los Angeles. 1998-01, he was a fellow at UCLA’s Gustav
E. von Grunebaum Center for Near Eastern Studies, where he held a
grant to compose Succession in Saudi Arabia, [New York: Palgrave
(2001) and Beirut and London: Dar Al Saqi, 2002, 2003 [2nd ed] (for
the Arabic translation)]. Dr. Kéchichian published Political
Participation and Stability in the Sultanate of Oman, Dubai: Gulf
Research Center, 2005, Oman and the World: The Emergence of an
Independent Foreign Policy, Santa Monica: RAND (1995), and edited A
Century in Thirty Years: Shaykh Zayed and the United Arab Emirates,
Washington, D.C.: The Middle East Policy Council (2000), as well as
Iran, Iraq, and the Arab Gulf States, New York: Palgrave (2001). In
2003, he co-authored (with Prof. R. Hrair Dekmejian) The Just Prince:
A Manual of Leadership (London: Saqi Books), that includes a full
translation of the Sulwan al-Muta` by Muhammad Ibn Zafar al-Siqilli.
He has just completed two new volumes, on Power and Succession in Arab
Monarchies [on a Smith Richardson Foundation grant], and A King for
All Seasons: Saudi Arabia Under Faysal, that will be published in
2007. He is the author of numerous essays, a frequent participant on
radio and television programs (e.g. MacNeil/Lehrer News Hour and
various BBC programs). He is a frequent traveler to the Gulf region
and is fluent in Arabic, Armenian, English, French, Italian, Turkish,
and is learning Persian.

For more Information Please call Dr. Hagop Panossian at (818)586-9660

http://www.arpainstitute.org/

Le Tribunal =?unknown?q?Reconna=EEt_Le?= Genocide

LE TRIBUNAL RECONNAîT LE GENOCIDE

Le Matin
10 mars 2007 samedi
Edition Semaine

PROCÈS. Le Turc Dogu Perincek a ete condamne hier pour discrimination
raciale a 90 jours-amende avec sursis

LAUSANNE
Première mondiale: le Tribunal de Lausanne admet l’existence
du genocide armenien. Condamne, Dogu Perincek a decide de faire
recourskGregoire gregoire. @edipresse.ch

"Le Tribunal tient pour etabli que le genocide armenien est un fait
avere, n’en deplaise a l’accuse. " Hier matin, pour condamner le Turc
negationniste Dogu Perincek, le juge Pierre-Henri Winzap a pese ses
mots, conscient de leur importance. Le Tribunal d’arrondissement de
Lausanne restera dans l’Histoire comme la première cour de justice
au monde a avoir reconnu sur le plan penal le genocide perpetre a
l’encontre des Armeniens dès 1915.

Dogu Perincek a ete condamne a 90 jours-amende (9000francs) avec un
sursis de deux ans, 3000francs d’amende ferme, 1000francs d’indemnites
pour tort moral a l’Association Suisse-Armenie et près de 16 000francs
de frais de procès a regler.

k"Raciste, arrogant et provocateur"

Pour statuer, le juge a entièrement suivi le requisitoire du
procureur. "L’entetement de M. Perincek est incomprehensible", a assene
Pierre-Henri Winzap, qualifiant l’accuse de "raciste", "arrogant" et
"provocateur". Un jugement qui n’a pas semble ebranler l’agitateur
negationniste. Dogu Perincek recidivait quelques minutes après le
verdict devant le Tribunal de Montbenon. "Je reste convaincu que le
genocide n’a pas eu lieu. Le juge n’etait pas neutre. Sa decision
est raciste et imperialiste. Il a montre sa haine contre la Turquie. "

Present a Lausanne pour suivre le procès, le consul general de Turquie
Cemil Karaman n’etait pas moins sceptique. "Un tribunal suisse
ne devrait pas se prononcer sur une affaire d’une telle ampleur",
notait le diplomate. L’ambassade de Turquie a Berne ne desirait,
elle, faire aucun commentaire hier. Dogu Perincek a confirme qu’il
recourrait contre sa condamnation jusqu’a la Cour europeenne des
droits de l’homme de Strasbourg si necessaire.

kEmotion et soulagement

Du côte armenien, Sarkis Shahinian a salue le jugement, "un pas
extremement important". A la lecture du verdict, le copresident de
l’Association Suisse-Armenie a difficilement contenu son emotion. "Je
ressens un gros soulagement. Je pense en premier lieu a mon père,
rescape du genocide armenien et mort il y a peu. Ainsi qu’a l’ancien
conseiller national genevois Jean-Claude Vaudroz decede mercredi,
l’initiateur de la reconnaissance du genocide en Suisse ".

–Boundary_(ID_TC3w0YBG4kElVJ1pXHLoFA)–

Armenian foreign minister details talks in USA

Armenian foreign minister details talks in USA

Azg, Yerevan
10 Mar 07, p3

Excerpt from report by Aghavni Harutyunyan in Armenian newspaper Azg
published on 10 March headlined "Iran was not specifically discussed
with Condoleezza Rice" and subheaded "Oskanyan will remain minister as
long as Kocharyan wants"
After briefing on the recent visits to and from Armenia, Armenian Foreign
Minister Vardan Oskanyan has said [at his news conference in Yerevan] he will
soon travel to Switzerland with three key goals: to make a speech at the [UN]
human rights committee, meet Swiss authorities and meet Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will pay a
visit to Armenia in the first week of April.
[Passage omitted: criticism of US human rights report on Armenia –
covered] At the meeting of the council [as published, presumably UN
human rights committee], Oskanyan will present the developments
regarding the human rights developments in Armenia, our issues, the
improvement of the legislation, including human rights issues in
connection with Nagornyy Karabakh, the issue of the Armenian monuments
in [Azerbaijani exclave of] Naxcivan, the issue of [Turkish journalist
of Armenian descent] Hrant Dink’s murder and so on.
Incidentally, a UNESCO delegation will soon visit the region and
Naxcivan. No specific dates are mentioned, but they [the delegation
members] will pay a visit and express their opinion about the
destruction of the khachkars [Armenian cross stones] and other
Armenian monuments.
Speaking about the "frozen conflicts" resolution proposed by the GUAM
(Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) countries [at the UN],
Oskanyan said that the common approach of the powers interested in our
region and Karabakh issue is not positive with regard to that
resolution.
"Everybody finds that resolution is unnecessary and may cause
additional complications in the Karabakh issue. I tried to explain its
negative consequences to the UN secretary general [in New York], and
Armenia’s possible stance if the resolution is adopted. The main
approach is that if the GUAM countries wish to present those conflicts
to a greater audience – the UN member states – a discussion without a
resolution would be the best way to do it, because today, the
processes around these conflicts are going on in other formats, and it
makes no sense for the UN to adopt a resolution on a conflict that is
under the OSCE format in our particular case, especially that the
conflicts differ in terms of their essence, history and reality," he
said.
Recently, the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border was discussed at
his [Oskanyan’s] meeting with US State Secretary Condoleezza Rice. The
USA is sincere in its efforts to open the border, according to
Oskanyan, and the USA will continue working in that direction. The
Nagornyy Karabakh issue was not discussed in details with Rice because
OSCE Minsk Group US co-chair Matthew Bryza was also present at the
meeting.
Following his meeting with Rice, Oskanyan discussed Karabakh with
Bryza in more details, speaking about his forthcoming meeting with
Mammadyarov in Geneva. Since [OSCE Minsk Group] French co-chair
Bernard Fassier is also holding discussions on the same topic in the
region these days, it makes Oskanyan think that "preparatory work is
done for the Geneva meeting". Oskanyan said that if Azerbaijan "does
not cause problems, there are reasons to believe that the meeting will
have positive outcome." In addition, the co-chairs want the presidents
meet as soon as possible following the [Armenian] parliamentary
election [on 12 May].
Replying to a question from Azg whether he had discussed Iran with the
US state secretary, Oskanyan said he had discussed regional issues but
not Iran specifically. [Passage omitted: Azerbaijan’s statements on
Karabakh talks do not reflect reality of talks – covered]
Regarding Oskanyan’s future in politics: he is not in any of the party
lists of candidates [for parliament]. It makes no sense to be included
in a party list if you have no intention to work in parliament. "There
was no such an intention, and what’s more, there was no such
proposal. As long as the republic’s president wants me to work until
the end of his term, I will continue to work. And only time will show
what I will do after the election."

Le tribunal reconnait le genocide

Le Matin
10 mars 2007 samedi
Édition Semaine

Le tribunal reconnaît le génocide;
PROCÈS. Le Turc Dogu Perinçek a été condamné hier pour discrimination
raciale à 90 jours-amende avec sursis

LAUSANNEPremière mondiale: le Tribunal de Lausanne admet l’existence
du génocide arménien. Condamné, Dogu Perinçek a décidé de faire
recourskGrégoire gregoire. @edipresse.ch

«Le Tribunal tient pour établi que le génocide arménien est un fait
avéré, n’en déplaise à l’accusé. » Hier matin, pour condamner le Turc
négationniste Dogu Perinçek, le juge Pierre-Henri Winzap a pesé ses
mots, conscient de leur importance. Le Tribunal d’arrondissement de
Lausanne restera dans l’Histoire comme la première cour de justice au
monde à avoir reconnu sur le plan pénal le génocide perpétré à
l’encontre des Arméniens dès 1915.

Dogu Perinçek a été condamné à 90 jours-amende (9000francs) avec un
sursis de deux ans, 3000francs d’amende ferme, 1000francs
d’indemnités pour tort moral à l’Association Suisse-Arménie et près
de 16 000francs de frais de procès à régler.

k«Raciste, arrogant et provocateur»

Pour statuer, le juge a entièrement suivi le réquisitoire du
procureur. «L’entêtement de M. Perinçek est incompréhensible», a
asséné Pierre-Henri Winzap, qualifiant l’accusé de «raciste»,
«arrogant» et «provocateur». Un jugement qui n’a pas semblé ébranler
l’agitateur négationniste. Dogu Perinçek récidivait quelques minutes
après le verdict devant le Tribunal de Montbenon. «Je reste convaincu
que le génocide n’a pas eu lieu. Le juge n’était pas neutre. Sa
décision est raciste et impérialiste. Il a montré sa haine contre la
Turquie. »

Présent à Lausanne pour suivre le procès, le consul général de
Turquie Cemil Karaman n’était pas moins sceptique. «Un tribunal
suisse ne devrait pas se prononcer sur une affaire d’une telle
ampleur», notait le diplomate. L’ambassade de Turquie à Berne ne
désirait, elle, faire aucun commentaire hier. Dogu Perinçek a
confirmé qu’il recourrait contre sa condamnation jusqu’à la Cour
européenne des droits de l’homme de Strasbourg si nécessaire.

kEmotion et soulagement

Du côté arménien, Sarkis Shahinian a salué le jugement, «un pas
extrêmement important». A la lecture du verdict, le coprésident de
l’Association Suisse-Arménie a difficilement contenu son émotion. «Je
ressens un gros soulagement. Je pense en premier lieu à mon père,
rescapé du génocide arménien et mort il y a peu. Ainsi qu’à l’ancien
conseiller national genevois Jean-Claude Vaudroz décédé mercredi,
l’initiateur de la reconnaissance du génocide en Suisse »

It Is Difficult To Expect That Public Will Take Part In Elections Wi

IT IS DIFFICULT TO EXPECT THAT PUBLIC WILL TAKE PART IN ELECTIONS WITH GREAT INSPIRATION, ALBERT BAZEYAN SAYS

Noyan Tapan
Mar 07 2007

YEREVAN, MARCH 7, NOYAN TAPAN. Only 3-4 pro-governmental and 3
opposition parties out of 28 political forces having nominated their
candidatures for the parliamentary elections will appear in the
parliament. Albert Bazeyan, Chairman of National Rebirth Party, who
is the second on PPA’s proportional list, expressed such an opinion
at the March 7 press conference. He gave assurance that the goal of
the rest of 20 parties is to disperse the electorate.

Mentioning that out of pro-governmental forces RPA, Bargavach
Hayastan Party, ARFD and ULP will be represented at the parliament,
A. Bazeyan did not wish to present his forecasts regarding the
oppositionists. Under conditions of opposition forces’ being separated,
in his words, it is difficult to expect that the public will take part
in the elections with great inspiration. In A. Bazeyan’s opinion,
instead of dicrediting one another for many years the opposition
forces should have tried to consolidate and such an attempt made at the
last moment was doomed to failure. In his words, the National Rebirth
as a young political force could not take part in the parliamentary
elections separately.

Therefore he accepted PPA’s proposal to be included in the proportional
list of that party. In A. Bazeyan’s words, he raised the question of
including another founder of National Rebirth, Vagharshak Haroutiunian
in PPA list, but this proposal was declined. A. Bazeyan refuted the
accusations that the leaders of National Rebirth Party cooperate with
Defence Minister Serge Sargsian or protect Russia’s interests. He
declared that if these slanders addressed to him or to the party
continue, the party may reconsider the issue of its participation in
the elections. At the same time A. Bazeyan mentioned that irrespective
of his participation in the elections, the National Rebirth Party
will support PPA.

Charge D-Affairs Of The USA To Armenia Found Difficulty In Calling E

CHARGE D-AFFAIRS OF THE USA TO ARMENIA FOUND DIFFICULTY IN CALLING EXACT TERMS OF APPOINTMENT OF US AMBASSADOR TO RA

Arminfo
2007-03-05 15:49:00

The Charge d’ Affairs of the USA to Armenia Anthony Godfrey found
difficulty in calling the exact terms of appointment of the US
Ambassador to the Republic of Armenia.

In today’s talk with ArmInfo correspondent he said that he possesses
no information about it. It is the business of Washington or rather,
of the Senate of US Congress., the American diplomat said.

Mazmanyan-Karapetyan Conflict "Flares Up"

MAZMANYAN-KARAPETYAN CONFLICT "FLARES UP"
Shushanik Haroutyunyan
Student of the Yerevan State University

A1+
[08:01 pm] 05 March, 2007

"Karapetyan, you are not illetarate, you are ignorant. Sue me again",
Armen Mazmanyan, director and stage-manager announced in the "Friday"
Club today.

He intends to challange the verdict of Court of Firts Instance under
which he was found guilty in slandering Tigran Karapetyan, president
of ALM Holding. Besides, Armen Mazmanyan was fined 300 thousand AMD.

Mazmanyan maintains that the events are ordered, "I am not a toy and
I shall let nobody play tricks on me", said the director and added,
"I shall seriously see to the matter; I am ready to bear unbiased
objective punishment".

To note, "21st century" NGO has opened a bank account and started
collecting money as they say, "Mazmanyan expressed our opinion,
and we are to pay the penalty".

By the way, we tried to find out Armen Mazmanyan’s stance on the
eve of the parliamentary elections. He didn’t conceal his affection
towards the Republican and ARF Dashnaktsutyun.

At the same time he says that he will be passive and keep away from
the political fuss.

Seven Parties Apply to Central Electoral Committee Today

Panorama.am

19:09 02/03/2007

SEVEN PARTIES APPLY TO CENTRAL ELECTORAL COMMITTEE TODAY

Seven political parties applied to Central Electoral Committee
today. The Progressive Party of Armenia submitted a 7-person list,
headed by party chairman, Tigran Urikhanyan. The United Working Party
(MAK) submitted a list, headed by Gurgen Arsenyan, followed by Grigor
Ghonjeyan and Sergei Sarajyan. There are 83 candidates in MAK
list. Armenian People’s Party, headed by Stepan Demirchyan, Armenian
National Libratory Party, Social Democratic Hnchak Party, National
Democratic Party and Marxist Party also submitted their lists.

Source: Panorama.am

Armenia okays Oskanian-Mammadyarov meeting in Geneva

PanARMENIAN.Net

Armenia okays Oskanian-Mammadyarov meeting in Geneva
03.03.2007 13:32 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Armenian side gave consent to the meeting of
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and Azerbaijani FM Elmar
Mammadyarov in Geneva March 13-14, as proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group
Co-chairs on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement, RA MFA Acting
Spokesman Vladimir Karapetian told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. Baku
also acceded to the proposal.

Vartan Oskanian and Elmar Mammadyarov are also expected to participate
in the 4th session of the UN Human Rights Council on March 13.

Armenian, Kazakh GMs emerge leaders in Kolkata Open chess

The Press Trust of India
March 1, 2007 Thursday

Armenian, Kazakh GMs emerge leaders in Kolkata Open chess

Armenian GM Tigran Petrosian and Super GM Darmen Sadvakasov of
Kazakhstan broke away from the pack to emerge joint leaders with
brilliant victories in the fifth round of the USD 20,000 Kolkata
Open-07 Grandmasters Chess tournament here today.

Tigran, who had held Super GM Serjei Tiviakov of Holland yesterday,
played an exciting game against GM Safin Sukhrat with the former
playing queen’s gambit which was accepted by Safin.

It was an aggressive game in which Tigran emerged victorious taking
his points tally to 4.5.

Sadvakasov also climbed at the top of the ladder beating IM
Sundarajan Kidambi with a Guico Piano opening.

IM Sriram Jha won the quickest game of the day beating GM Niaz
Murshid of Bangladesh in 25 moves. Murshid, playing modern defence,
overlooked a simple tactic and resigned before Jha could pick up his
pawn.

Indian IM D P Singh was the cynosure of all eyes again today with
media as well as players closely watching his game against G N Gopal.
Singh, however, remained calm and composed and drew his game to end
the round at 3.5 points.

The Chess Players’ Association had yesterday alleged that Singh was
using unfair means prompting organisers to check him with a metal
detector and also had him examined by an ENT specialist.

Top seed GM Serjei Tiviakov of the Netherlands, playing with the
disadvantage of black pieces, was not too adventurous against Israeli
GM Alon Greenfeld. The game ended in a draw.