Author: Emil Lazarian

Metropolitan Shio (Mujiri) of Senak and Chkhorotsghu, who is currently the deputy of the patriarchal chair, was elected the new patriarch of Georgia. This was announced by Metropolitan Anania after the vote held in the expanded assembly of the Georgian Orthodox Church.

“Vicar Shio received 22 votes, Metropolitan Iov – 9, and Metropolitan Grigol – 7 votes. One ballot was declared invalid. Metropolitan Shio has been elected as the Patriarch of Georgia,” said Metropolitan Anania.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin raises the “price of Russia’s interests” in Armenia’s electoral process, trying to define his “red lines” in Armenia and ensure that Russia does not end up “out of the game”.

About this “Review” of 168 TV mentioned on the air of the program political commentator Hakob Badalyan, speaking about the EU’s activity in Armenia, Putin’s May 9 statements and the intensifying geopolitical competition around Armenia.

“The inaugural Armenia-EU summit is given a “historical” packaging in order to sell the European theme to the Armenian public, first of all, in an electoral sense, and the goal is very simple. Today, Armenia is important from the point of view of the construction of the “Middle Corridor”, but Azerbaijan and Turkey are much more important than Armenia in this matter for Europe, and the Europeans openly talk about it. commented Hakob Badalyan.

Hakob Badalyan drew attention to the fact that Armenia-EU joint declaration consists of 44 points, connecting it with the symbolism of the ill-fated 44-day war that paved the way for the geopolitical expansion of the European Union to the Caucasus, when the status quo that constrained the European Union in the region was destroyed, and after that the EU conducts a “policy of toast” towards Armenia, which is very clearly expressed in the text of the same joint declaration, and tries to reach a concrete agreement with Azerbaijan and Turkey to form the “Middle Corridor” purpose.

“Besides, Azerbaijan and Turkey obviously demand a high price from Europe, and Armenia plays a very big role in that price, in other words, they devote a lot of space to issues related to Armenia as a price in terms of forming the Middle Corridor or agreeing on that issue. Europe’s role here is to convince Armenia and interest in paying that price.” added the political commentator.

Hakob Badalyan emphasizes that the “pie” of the EU for Armenia is the various financial assistance in the amount of 2.7 billion euros promised from 2021.

“It is the pie that they promise to Armenia, to easily adapt to the ideas of Azerbaijan and Turkey, so that the Middle Corridor is formed, and Europe gets its share in that Middle Corridor.” comments the interlocutor.

Touching upon the question of what political footnotes or motivations Nikol Pashinyan had for not going to Moscow and not being present at the annual military parade held on May 9 in Moscow’s Red Square, Hakob Badalyan reminds that a few days before May 9, on May 4 and 5, a “European Party” was organized in Yerevan in order to provide political and propaganda support to Nikol Pashinyan during the pre-election period.

The commentator justifies his point of view by the fact that the European events, apart from the show and demonstration, did not have any substantive agenda related to Armenia, and going to the military parade in Moscow just 3-4 days after that would mean for Nikol Pashinyan to throw the entire effect of the “European Party” into the water in the propaganda sense.

“And we know that Nikol Pashinyan is trying to capitalize on the European topic for his electorate as much as possible and at the same time to expect loyalty from Europe towards the behavior he shows towards his opponents and political opposition in the internal processes, and I repeat, going to Moscow after a few days would mean throwing the whole thing into the water, and Pashinyan, citing the circumstances of the pre-election campaign, did not go to the parade.” observes Hakob Badalyan.

In this context, Hakob Badalyan also commented on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that it would be right for Armenia to decide as soon as possible whether to join the European Union (EU) or remain a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

“In my opinion, the Russian president is simply raising the price of Russia’s interests in Armenia’s electoral processes, especially for the current government, and this is why I condition the fact that these topics are regularly addressed at the level of the Russian president, if we also remember the certain unprecedentedness of Putin’s opening speech at the meeting between Putin and Pashinyan on April 1st, and Russia is trying to define its red lines and its determination to pursue them։ Recently, we also see certain actions in the economic field, where Armenia’s dependence is very high.” the political commentator thinks.

Hakob Badalyan emphasizes that this behavior of Russia is due to the fact that other international actors are very directly interfering in the internal processes of Armenia, in particular, the same European Union, the United States, Turkey, Azerbaijan.

«Moreover, let’s note, recording the facts, that Russia does not express direct support to this or that power in the sense of attitude, but only announced that they are pursuing their interests, so that Russia does not appear “out of the game”“, added the political commentator.

As for the issue of Armenia’s accession to the European Union, Hakob Badalyan believes that it is a matter of the far future, if Armenia ever comes close to it, and adds his conviction that the European Union has absolutely no intention of accepting Armenia into its membership.

And the fact that Putin said that in his opinion it would be right for the citizens of Armenia to decide on this issue, for example, by holding a referendum, the political commentator notes that this is a requirement of the Constitution of Armenia, and it is clear that similar issues should be resolved through a referendum in order to remove the issue of EU membership from the field of internal political populism or geopolitical dodges.

“I think it is unrealistic to think that as long as Turkey is not a member of the EU, any Caucasian state can become a member of the EU, and Turkey is unlikely to become a member of the EU as long as France is a member of the EU, unless, of course, France renounces its state-strategic interests and becomes an affiliate of some other geopolitical project.” added the analyst.

According to Hakob Badalyan, one of the main dangers is that a “geopolitical bet” can be made on destabilization in the Caucasus, instead of establishing stability.

“And its importance for Europe is growing, and it is not at all a vague prospect that the European Union may even try to bet on destabilization here in order to advance its interests with that logic. Finally, let me repeat, that path was opened more intensively for the European Union after the destabilization in the Caucasus, after the 44-day war. Now all parties are raising the stakes, showing that they are ready to go to the end, and here we can have only one response: to increase our state and public qualities, and the possibility of this is to achieve at least a change of government on June 7.” adds the commentator.

Full interview in the video.

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168TVof “Trigger” the guest of the program Alexander Ananev, retired senior advisor of the Russian Foreign Ministry is:

During the program, the possible parallels between the political processes taking place in Ukraine on the eve of the Maidan and the situation in Armenia before the 44-day war, the role of external players and the actions of the authorities were discussed.

Reference was also made to the significance of the 8th European Political Community Summit and the inaugural Armenia-EU Summit, their possible geopolitical consequences, as well as the differences in the rhetoric of Western leaders towards Armenia and Azerbaijan in the context of recent statements.

Special attention was paid to the risks of external interference in the electoral processes in Armenia, possible parallels with Moldova and EU statements in the context of supporting Nikol Pashinyan.

In addition, the latest statements of the Russian President regarding EU-EEU relations, the possible discussion of the issue related to Armenia’s course towards EU membership at the EEU summit, as well as possible impulses and consequences for the region were discussed.

At the end of the program, the topic of the relatively low activity of the USA in the background of the TRIPP project and the ongoing processes in the South Caucasus was touched upon.

Hayk Derzyan

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State officials and businessmen of the two countries interacted in Aghveran

As expected, contacts between Baku and Yerevan are expanding, mainly through the state commission for the demarcation of the state border between the two countries, chaired by Deputy Prime Ministers Mher Grigoryan and Shahin Mustafaev. The 13th session of the commission was held on April 29 at the Aghveran resort in Armenia, which is a convenient place for various negotiations and informal contacts.

According to the official information of the host country, “during the session, the parties exchanged detailed thoughts on organizational and technical issues related to border demarcation activities.” The text of the draft instructions on the procedures for the activities of demarcation expert groups, the procedure for creating a map of the state border demarcation, as well as the procedure for preparing and issuing documents on the demarcation of the state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia were agreed upon.

In addition, co-chairs Mher Grigoryan and Shahin Mustafaev (born in the Noyemberyan region of the Armenian SSR) “exchanged separate thoughts on issues of mutual interest. It was noted that transit of goods through the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Republic of Armenia is successfully carried out and is currently ongoing. It was noted with satisfaction that Azerbaijan carries out deliveries of oil products to Armenia, which is an indicator of the formation of trade and economic ties between the two countries.”

During the meeting of the Baku delegation and the anonymous representatives of Armenian business circles, “a discussion of the development of trade and economic cooperation, mutual supply of goods and services, as well as issues of transit transportation took place. It was specially emphasized that the achieved results were made possible thanks to the political will of the RA Prime Minister and the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan. According to the results of the meeting of the commissions, a corresponding protocol was signed.”

At the same time, According to the media of Baku, Azerbaijan has started the creation of transport infrastructure in the vicinity of the Sotki gold mine, which is planned to be put into operation by the AzerGold company after the completion of the works. After inspecting the area, they came to the conclusion in Baku that currently Armenia is not doing any work. The inspection was agreed upon during the previous meeting between Grigoryan and Mustafaev in Gabala.

“Caucasian Bureau”-ն writes. “After the negotiations, not so much the meeting as the composition of the (Armenian) delegation attracted the attention of the observers. A Rolls-Royce car with serial number 00-OO-006 was spotted in Sharasyan’s tail, which, according to Armenian journalists, is related to a businessman. Samvel Aleksanyan with. The name of another Armenian businessman is also circulating in the news field: Khachatur Sukiasyan (Grzo). At the same time, it was reported about the increase in security measures and the presence of snipers during the negotiations. The mentioned businessmen, who are major importers of all kinds of products to Armenia, felt good even until 2018, but it was with the arrival of Nikol Pashinyan and his team to power, they say, that they expanded “in full swing”. It must be assumed that they are the privileged list of beneficiaries of Yerevan’s “peace agenda”, including the desired trade course with its eastern and western neighbors.

But will this bring profit and prosperity to the majority of Armenian citizens? True, the issue is highly controversial, and is it only about trade? According to Artur Khachatryan, deputy of the opposition “Hayastan” bloc of the National Assembly of Armenia, the acting head of the government Nikol Pashinyan, lacking internal legitimacy and the real support of the people, is betting on Baku, and Mustafaev’s current visit was organized to show that there is peace between Baku and Yerevan, and as long as Pashinyan is at the helm, relations will remain normal.

There is no doubt that “in return for their support, they will definitely snatch something from the Armenian authorities”, Khachatryan does not doubt, assuming that Baku may demand special concessions in the demarcation and demarcation process, taking into account Mustafaev’s status as the co-chairman of the commission. As for the meeting with businessmen, it creates an illusion that the establishment of “natural relations” will open up new opportunities.

It seems that this is partly true. In the first quarter of 2026, Azerbaijan exported a record 5.8 million dollars of its products to Armenia (75% of which are oil products), while during the entire year of 2025, Azerbaijan exported 788.8 thousand dollars of goods to Armenia.

And the import from Armenia amounted to some symbolic 960 dollars. In Yerevan, they emphasize the lack of actual exports to Azerbaijan, and there are speculations in the media that the mentioned amount could have been generated at the expense of gifts (sweets, tea, etc.) “transmitted by civil society representatives” during several mutual visits that were widely covered in the media of the two countries. The last such visit took place in the first ten days of April. The Armenian delegation arrived in Azerbaijan through the demarcated part of the land border in the northern part of the Tavush region, passing through the neighboring Kazakh region, along the northern demarcated part of the border, observing all the necessary formalities.

According to Baku mass media, exports to Armenia accounted for only 0.11% of the total volume of Azerbaijan’s exports in the first three months of 2026, and the structure of mutual trade is dominated by oil products from the shores of the Caspian Sea (they also dominated Azerbaijan’s trade ties with the Armenian SSR up to and including 1990).

The Russian side has repeatedly called for the restoration of economic ties between the two countries, including the opening of transport links. The Trump administration was also not left out, which organized a noisy “peace” summit in Washington on April 8, 2025, which was accompanied by the signing of the draft peace agreement. Last January, Baku and Yerevan exchanged lists of potential products for mutual trade. they were partially updated in February. At that time, in Abu Dhabi, Aliyev and Pashinyan, let’s remind, expressed their support for the development of economic ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Later, the RA Minister of Economy told the media that Yerevan is negotiating with Baku on the mutual supply of aluminum foil and raw materials for its production, ferromolybdenum, some chemicals, farm animals, cognac, tobacco, textiles, roses, essential oils and other greenhouse products. As for the supply of gas through the territory of Azerbaijan by railway, “huge investments of SCR” are necessary for this, the minister clearly hinted.

Aliyev still in 2024 announced“Within the framework of expanding export opportunities, Baku allows one of the power transmission lines and the gas pipeline to pass through the territory of Armenia. Armenia can become Azerbaijan potential gas receiver.’

The latter is even more possible, because from the second half of the 1960s to the beginning of the 1970s, there is a branched gas pipeline network that supplied the Caspian Sea (methane, i.e. natural, and oil, i.e. propane-butane) deposits to the Armenian SSR. Can such a scheme be reproduced today, more than 35 years later, and in fundamentally new geopolitical conditions? Given the turbulent geopolitical dynamics of recent months and years, it is clearly premature to answer this question definitively.

Alexey Baliev

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

vpoanalytics.com

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