Armenia is interested in oil products and probably gas from Azerbaijan

State officials and businessmen of the two countries interacted in Aghveran

As expected, contacts between Baku and Yerevan are expanding, mainly through the state commission for the demarcation of the state border between the two countries, chaired by Deputy Prime Ministers Mher Grigoryan and Shahin Mustafaev. The 13th session of the commission was held on April 29 at the Aghveran resort in Armenia, which is a convenient place for various negotiations and informal contacts.

According to the official information of the host country, “during the session, the parties exchanged detailed thoughts on organizational and technical issues related to border demarcation activities.” The text of the draft instructions on the procedures for the activities of demarcation expert groups, the procedure for creating a map of the state border demarcation, as well as the procedure for preparing and issuing documents on the demarcation of the state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia were agreed upon.

In addition, co-chairs Mher Grigoryan and Shahin Mustafaev (born in the Noyemberyan region of the Armenian SSR) “exchanged separate thoughts on issues of mutual interest. It was noted that transit of goods through the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Republic of Armenia is successfully carried out and is currently ongoing. It was noted with satisfaction that Azerbaijan carries out deliveries of oil products to Armenia, which is an indicator of the formation of trade and economic ties between the two countries.”

During the meeting of the Baku delegation and the anonymous representatives of Armenian business circles, “a discussion of the development of trade and economic cooperation, mutual supply of goods and services, as well as issues of transit transportation took place. It was specially emphasized that the achieved results were made possible thanks to the political will of the RA Prime Minister and the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan. According to the results of the meeting of the commissions, a corresponding protocol was signed.”

At the same time, According to the media of Baku, Azerbaijan has started the creation of transport infrastructure in the vicinity of the Sotki gold mine, which is planned to be put into operation by the AzerGold company after the completion of the works. After inspecting the area, they came to the conclusion in Baku that currently Armenia is not doing any work. The inspection was agreed upon during the previous meeting between Grigoryan and Mustafaev in Gabala.

“Caucasian Bureau”-ն writes. “After the negotiations, not so much the meeting as the composition of the (Armenian) delegation attracted the attention of the observers. A Rolls-Royce car with serial number 00-OO-006 was spotted in Sharasyan’s tail, which, according to Armenian journalists, is related to a businessman. Samvel Aleksanyan with. The name of another Armenian businessman is also circulating in the news field: Khachatur Sukiasyan (Grzo). At the same time, it was reported about the increase in security measures and the presence of snipers during the negotiations. The mentioned businessmen, who are major importers of all kinds of products to Armenia, felt good even until 2018, but it was with the arrival of Nikol Pashinyan and his team to power, they say, that they expanded “in full swing”. It must be assumed that they are the privileged list of beneficiaries of Yerevan’s “peace agenda”, including the desired trade course with its eastern and western neighbors.

But will this bring profit and prosperity to the majority of Armenian citizens? True, the issue is highly controversial, and is it only about trade? According to Artur Khachatryan, deputy of the opposition “Hayastan” bloc of the National Assembly of Armenia, the acting head of the government Nikol Pashinyan, lacking internal legitimacy and the real support of the people, is betting on Baku, and Mustafaev’s current visit was organized to show that there is peace between Baku and Yerevan, and as long as Pashinyan is at the helm, relations will remain normal.

There is no doubt that “in return for their support, they will definitely snatch something from the Armenian authorities”, Khachatryan does not doubt, assuming that Baku may demand special concessions in the demarcation and demarcation process, taking into account Mustafaev’s status as the co-chairman of the commission. As for the meeting with businessmen, it creates an illusion that the establishment of “natural relations” will open up new opportunities.

It seems that this is partly true. In the first quarter of 2026, Azerbaijan exported a record 5.8 million dollars of its products to Armenia (75% of which are oil products), while during the entire year of 2025, Azerbaijan exported 788.8 thousand dollars of goods to Armenia.

And the import from Armenia amounted to some symbolic 960 dollars. In Yerevan, they emphasize the lack of actual exports to Azerbaijan, and there are speculations in the media that the mentioned amount could have been generated at the expense of gifts (sweets, tea, etc.) “transmitted by civil society representatives” during several mutual visits that were widely covered in the media of the two countries. The last such visit took place in the first ten days of April. The Armenian delegation arrived in Azerbaijan through the demarcated part of the land border in the northern part of the Tavush region, passing through the neighboring Kazakh region, along the northern demarcated part of the border, observing all the necessary formalities.

According to Baku mass media, exports to Armenia accounted for only 0.11% of the total volume of Azerbaijan’s exports in the first three months of 2026, and the structure of mutual trade is dominated by oil products from the shores of the Caspian Sea (they also dominated Azerbaijan’s trade ties with the Armenian SSR up to and including 1990).

The Russian side has repeatedly called for the restoration of economic ties between the two countries, including the opening of transport links. The Trump administration was also not left out, which organized a noisy “peace” summit in Washington on April 8, 2025, which was accompanied by the signing of the draft peace agreement. Last January, Baku and Yerevan exchanged lists of potential products for mutual trade. they were partially updated in February. At that time, in Abu Dhabi, Aliyev and Pashinyan, let’s remind, expressed their support for the development of economic ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Later, the RA Minister of Economy told the media that Yerevan is negotiating with Baku on the mutual supply of aluminum foil and raw materials for its production, ferromolybdenum, some chemicals, farm animals, cognac, tobacco, textiles, roses, essential oils and other greenhouse products. As for the supply of gas through the territory of Azerbaijan by railway, “huge investments of SCR” are necessary for this, the minister clearly hinted.

Aliyev still in 2024 announced“Within the framework of expanding export opportunities, Baku allows one of the power transmission lines and the gas pipeline to pass through the territory of Armenia. Armenia can become Azerbaijan potential gas receiver.’

The latter is even more possible, because from the second half of the 1960s to the beginning of the 1970s, there is a branched gas pipeline network that supplied the Caspian Sea (methane, i.e. natural, and oil, i.e. propane-butane) deposits to the Armenian SSR. Can such a scheme be reproduced today, more than 35 years later, and in fundamentally new geopolitical conditions? Given the turbulent geopolitical dynamics of recent months and years, it is clearly premature to answer this question definitively.

Alexey Baliev

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

vpoanalytics.com

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