Author: Emil Lazarian

One of the longest-lasting, predictable axes of the post-Soviet region, the Yerevan-Moscow strategic alliance, is experiencing its deepest historical crisis. What was described as a “strategic partnership” for years has now reached an apparent impasse, where the accumulated problems between the parties have reached a critical point.

The 8th European Political Community Summit held in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, seems to have become a turning point in Armenian-Russian relations, and especially in terms of the perceptions of the Russian elite. After this summit, the Russian side sharpened its rhetoric, offered inappropriate, inclusion of the issue of Armenia’s European aspirations in the upcoming session of the EAEU, hints about depriving it of economic privileges.

In essence, the Russian side presents an ultimatum: choose the EAEU or leave the EAEU, because the EAEU is incompatible with the EU. This is announced by the Russian side at the level of Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk, Shoigu and Russian President Putin.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin in his last reference, he said that in Moscow they cannot accept the policy pursued by the leadership of Armenia, that is, to maintain membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, until, so to speak, it passes to the membership of the European Union.

According to him, discussions on EU membership often have a populist character, and similar processes have taken place in other countries in the past. “Attracting Armenia to the EU is a populist slogan. the same tactics were used in the case of Ukraine and Moldova,” he said.

Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigun stated that the leadership of Armenia has recently been taking steps that do not correspond to the spirit of allied relations with Russia.

“It is no secret that the leadership of that country has recently been taking steps that do not correspond to the spirit of allied relations with the Russian Federation,” Shoigu said at the meeting of the special working group held today, according to the Russian “Interfax”.

According to him, Armenia regularly joins the position of the European Union on international platforms, and also actively works towards changing standards and harmonizing customs and trade regimes with the EU, “which may not correspond to the commitments undertaken by Armenia within the framework of EAEU”.

“Joint military exercises are being conducted, in recent years, the Armenian leadership has taken a number of steps that are definitely not friendly in nature. That’s how we evaluate joining the International Criminal Court’s charter, handing over Russian citizens to third countries,” he said.

Shoigu criticized Yerevan’s provision of the opportunity for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to speak at the summit of the European Political Community.

According to the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Zelensky’s speech contained threats against the Russian Federation, including threats to attack the Victory Parade.

“It is nothing but a mockery of the memory of more than one and a half million Armenians who fought against Nazism, that absolute evil, not sparing their lives,” Shoigu stated. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also announced that the European Union is pulling Armenia into its orbit, and thus Yerevan risks losing all its benefits within the EAEU framework.

RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan In a conversation with journalists, referring to the statements made by the Russian side, he said that the issue of Armenia leaving the EAEU cannot be discussed until Armenia has presented such an application and desire, and Armenia has not presented such a desire.

Mirzoyan responded to the observation, “Is it possible to freeze the membership of Armenia in EAEU until Armenia takes a decision?”

“There can be no such thing. it is an organization determined and guided by the consensus votes of RA, how can such a thing be?” In another reference, Mirzoyan said that they are interested in maintaining normal close partnership relations with Russia, both bilaterally and within EAEU frameworks. He considers that these relations are mutually beneficial and believes that this partnership continues normally. “We are working in that direction so that everything continues normally,” he said.

Despite RA’s assurances that they continue constructive membership in EAEU, the Russian side has begun to apply small sanctions to Armenian businesses. Yesterday it became known that “Rosselkhoznadzor” introduces temporary restrictions on the import of flower products from Armenia, the service announced, which will come into force on May 22. The ban will remain in effect until the inspection of the greenhouses is completed and the results are analyzed.

The decision was made to protect Russia’s phytosanitary safety and export potential. “Despite the guarantees given by the Food Safety Inspectorate of Armenia, detection of quarantine species for the EAEU continues. 135 cases were registered out of 96.2 million imported flower products. This is 77% of the total number of cases detected during 2025,” the statement said.

A few days ago, Russia announced that it has strengthened the phytosanitary control of quarantine products imported from Armenia.

“Rosselkhoznadzor” is going to inspect a number of Armenian enterprises, whose product delivery to Russia was previously suspended due to the suspicion of importing fake fish products of European origin,” the service announced after the talks between its head Sergey Dankwert and the head of the Food Safety Inspection Authority of Armenia, Tigran Petrosyan.

And earlier, in April, the Russian side announced another restriction on Armenian goods. The sale of “Jermuk” mineral water has been banned in the Russian market.

Attempts by the official circles of Armenia to mask the crisis of relations with theses about “mutually beneficial economic partnership” no longer reflect the harsh reality of the bilateral agenda.

According to our information, deep alarm is currently brewing in the RA political elite and especially in the business community, as the political ultimatums issued by Moscow are gradually turning into targeted sanctions.

The huge Russian market for Armenian capital, which has been the main feeding vein of the economy for years, is gradually ceasing to exist as a reliable market. Armenian business is already feeling the first “trial” blows of Russia’s warnings.

In this context, the restrictions applied by “Rosselkhoznadzor” to Armenian flower products, fish products or “Jermuk” should be considered not as a separate phytosanitary issue, but as a classic manifestation of Moscow’s toolkit.

The Russian side demonstrates the absolute economic vulnerability of Armenia, making it clear that the price of the change in the foreign political vector and European aspirations will be paid by the Armenian exporters, and ultimately by the Armenian people.

Local business circles are facing a challenge, because it is not possible to reorient the volumes of finished products exported to the Russian Federation to the market regulated by the strict standards of the European Union in a situation where there are many problems in the European markets as well.

Obviously, these economic “precautionary steps” by Moscow represent only a small part of Moscow’s leverage. The hidden concerns of the RA authorities are related to much more strategic areas, such as energy dependence, cheap gas supplies, management of the Armenian nuclear power plant and possible restrictions on the expected transfers from Russia.

Armenian-Russian relations have entered a stage where Moscow’s position is more than clear. the political and security rapprochement with the West will automatically lead to the cancellation of the economic privileges on which Armenia’s current economic stability is anchored.

According to our information, the Armenian authorities actually attach certain strategic hopes to the prospect of the “opening” of the Azerbaijani and Turkish markets, which was indirectly evidenced by the recent unprecedented visit of Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafaev to Yerevan.

Within the framework of this visit, the high-ranking Azerbaijani official had meetings with Armenian business circles to discuss bilateral trade opportunities. The RA authorities are trying to consider this as a real opportunity to get rid of Russian economic dependence, although the business community, according to our information, is extremely suspicious of these plans to replace the huge Russian market with the Azerbaijani one.

The RA authorities do not even consider the European markets from the point of view of solutions for the near future.

Thus, Yerevan today stands on the threshold of extremely dangerous and uncertain expectations, where the lack of an effective and visible strategy to resist Russian economic attacks and the foggy prospect of trade alternatives with Turkey and Azerbaijan put the Armenian economy under an unpredictable geopolitical test.

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