Author: Emil Lazarian

As last week marked the first anniversary of the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the Caucasus, an Armenian expert is hopeful for the future of his country’s relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, which assisted Azerbaijan in its victory.

The outcome of the fall 2020 Karabakh conflict “altered the landscape, it’s changed the map of the region,” Richard Giragosian, a US-born Armenian political analyst, told Anadolu Agency.

“For Armenia-Turkey normalization, however, the key difference is a big advantage,” said Giragosian, now director of the Regional Studies Center based in Yerevan, the Armenian capital.

Azerbaijan, Armenia’s neighbor and longtime rival, “is no longer opposed to normalization,” he added.

Close allies with Azerbaijan under the slogan “One nation, two states,” by contrast Turkey has long been at loggerheads with Armenia, over such issues as Yerevan’s refusal to recognize their shared border, terror attacks on Turkish diplomats, and claims over the events of 1915.

Another reason for Turkey to pursue normalization with Armenia, Giragosian said, is that it offers “a way for Turkey to have a more active role in the regional restoration of trade and transport.”

Due to its intransigence, landlocked Armenian has long been left out of transport and trade lines towards Turkey and Europe, routes meant to draw the region closer together.

Liberation of Karabakh

Relations between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh (Upper Karabakh), a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

An Armenian offensive last September, including attacks on civilians, triggered a 44-day conflict which ended with a Russia-brokered agreement on Nov. 10, 2020.

During the conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and some 300 settlements that had been occupied by Armenia for almost 30 years.

At the end of the conflict, Turkish leaders voiced hope that peace could open doors to greater regional reconciliation and cooperation.

Giragosian also pointed to out what he calls “a very positive exchange of messages” since the Karabakh conflict, not only by Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but also by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev.

“In other words, the stars are realigning in terms of a more positive environment conducive to two developments: the reopening of the closed border between Armenia and Turkey, and the establishment of diplomatic relations,” he added.

“And in this post-war context, normalization in this second attempt is now much stronger and much more likely to succeed,” he explained.

Normalization between Armenia, Turkey

According to Giragosian, there was one winner from the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, “it wasn’t Azerbaijan as much as Russia.”

“Russia has now deployed military forces to all three countries in this region,” he added, including a joint Turkish-Russian center to monitor the peace in Karabakh.

“Nevertheless, I do think that the Russian peacekeepers, (the) Russian buildup in southern Armenia has added a new challenge to the independence and sovereignty of Armenia and Azerbaijan, meaning that Turkey in many ways is seen as an important alternative to any kind of overdependence on Russia,” he said.

On the future of relations, Giragosian is optimistic. “I would say the outlook for normalization between Armenia and Turkey is no longer a question of if, but when. And in this context, I do expect it in the coming year.”

“The reason is, this is a second round of reengagement, and the first time, the signing of the protocols, as delayed or disappointing as they were, because they weren’t implemented,” he added, referring to the 2009 Zurich protocols between Turkey and Armenia, which proposed opening the border as well as mending diplomatic ties.

“They actually achieved a tremendous amount in terms of the border (which) didn’t reopen yet, but minds reopened.”

Normalization “was never supposed to be that quick or that easy,” he explained.

Now, in the wake of the Karabakh conflict, the prospects for normalization “are much more realistic,” he argued.

“However, we’re only talking about the basic minimum, neighbors with open borders and trade and diplomatic relations. This is not reconciliation,” he added.

“This has nothing to do with the genocide issue,” he said, referring to the deaths of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey in 1915, which Turkey has accused Armenia of ignoring the historical record on in favor of using it as a politicized weapon against Turkey on the international stage.

“This is about normalization,” said Giragosian. “And it’s a process I fully support because it’s the first step toward reconciliation.”

[see video]

 12:23,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 11, ARMENPRESS. The Azerbaijani customs checkpoint is not in the territory of Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at the Cabinet meeting today, commenting on yesterday’s decision of Azerbaijan that it is going to set up a customs checkpoint in the problematic section of the Goris-Kapan road.

“In order to avoid speculations, I would like to remind and draw your attention to the fact that the Azerbaijani checkpoint is not in the territory of the Republic of Armenia. The talk is about the Eyvazli section. Now question can arise whether it wasn’t possible to negotiate so that no border control was exercised on the cargo and the citizens of Armenia. It was possible, but the cost would be the corridor logic, which is unacceptable for us”, the PM said.

He said that Armenia’s position over the regional communications has been that they must be unblocked without any exterritorial context and customs and passport control.

“In other words, we haven’t discussed and will not discuss any corridor logic as I have stated repeatedly in the past. This is fixed in the Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan deputy prime ministerial format and it’s important to note that this logic and agreement have been publicly confirmed also by the Russian Federation in the past weeks. Perhaps Azerbaijan made its yesterday’s decision in this context”, Pashinyan said.

He clarified that Armenia remains committed to the provisions of the 2020 November 9 and the 2021 January 11 statements, in particular those concerning the unblocking of all transportation and economic communications of the region.

“Moreover, we are interested in the unblocking of all economic and transportation communications of the region and hope to achieve concrete solutions in the future based on the principles agreed upon and announced in the trilateral working group”, he said.

He informed that Armenia as well will set up customs checkpoints as needed.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

 14:30,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 11, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan received Ambassador of Italy to Armenia Alfonso Di Riso, the PM’s Office reports.

Pashinyan congratulated the Ambassador on assuming office and wished success to the further development of the Armenian-Italian friendly relations.

The PM highlighted ensuring the continuous progress of the political and economic cooperation between Armenia and Italy and expressed confidence that concrete results are possible to achieve with the joint efforts of the governments of the two countries. The development of the bilateral economic cooperation was specifically emphasized, including with the holding of business forum and promotion of business ties. Pashinyan remembered with warmth his official visit to Italy in 2019 and highlighted the bilateral high-level mutual visits which give a new impetus to the expansion of cooperation in different areas.

Alfonso Di Riso assured that during his tenure he will make all efforts to contribute to the strengthening of mutual cooperation between the two countries. The Ambassador also emphasized the necessity of development of commercial ties and added that the Italian side is interested in discussing and implementing new investment programs with Armenia.

The sides considered prospective the expansion of cooperation in different branches of economy, including in high technologies, tourism, construction and agriculture, stating that there is a big potential.

The sides also discussed the activity of the Armenian-Italian inter-governmental commission, the possibility of holding a session in the future.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan