Regional conditions right for Armenia to press for peace, paper says
Haykakan Zhamanak, Yerevan
15 Jan 05
Text of unattributed report by Armenian newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak on
15 January headlined “Time for drawing conclusions”
They say there are no coincidences in policy and this point is always
proved in reality. At the same time that they are speaking more loudly
in Azerbaijan that without Russia’s aid Armenia could not gain victory
in the Karabakh war, and are threatening with a new war, Russian
Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov declares in the USA that Russia is not
going to push Armenia to any side in the geo-political sense and
Armenia itself should choose which way to move.
Indeed, against the background of Azerbaijan’s bellicose statements,
the Russian defence minister’s statement gains another context. And
the problem is not that in case of a new war Armenia will need
Russia’s support. If we speak about any possible war, Russia’s role is
large, because almost the whole of the Armenian army has Russian
equipment. Russia is our only military supplier. This means that the
authorities of Armenia, keeping Armenia even in a situation of
theoretical war, deprive us of an opportunity to be independent. In
its turn this means that the establishment of peace and relations with
its neighbours is the first guarantee of Armenia’s independence.
And though it may sound strange, now is the most convenient time in
the geo-political sense. Of course the Azerbaijanis when speaking
about war make a psychological attack on Armenia and maybe they do
that at Russia’s request. Undoubtedly the threat of war is an
important lever for Russia to keep Armenia in its orbit. But
“unfortunately” restarting the Karabakh war today is not to Russia’s
advantage either, because this war supposes the uncontrolled movement
of weapons and equipment in the region, but in the conditions of the
situation created in the North Caucasus it will be fatal for Russia
(note that on the Karabakh front, the cease-fire was established
almost at the time the Chechen war began). And if, at least
theoretically, we understand the necessity of being independent from
Russia in the political sense, we should also understand that while
Russia cannot establish the situation it wants to be in the North
Caucasus, we have such an opportunity, because today – in our region –
Russia cannot choose a way of settling a problem by means of war.
As for Azerbaijan, war may not be to their advantage either, since the
Azerbaijanis will hardly make up their minds to the idea of losing an
expected 4bn dollars from the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline each year
because of a pointless war. For this reason we should conclude from
the Russian-Azerbaijani political blackmail that Armenia’s strategic
interests require the establishment of an early and stable peace,
which in its turn will lead to real political independence.