Author: Emil Lazarian

LONDON, June 21 (Reuters) – Azerbaijan’s foreign minister has rejected a demand from Armenia to provide special security guarantees for some 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave ahead of a new round of peace talks, saying they are sufficiently protected.

Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, has been a source of conflict between the two Caucasus neighbours since the years leading up to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and between ethnic Armenians and Turkic Azeris for well over a century.

After heavy fighting and a Russian-brokered ceasefire, Azerbaijan in 2020 took over areas that had been controlled by ethnic Armenians in and around the mountain enclave.

The two sides have since been discussing a peace deal in which they would agree on borders, settle differences over the enclave, and unfreeze relations.

In what looked like a breakthrough, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was quoted last month as saying Armenia did recognise that Karabakh was part of Azerbaijan, but wanted Baku to provide the guarantees for its ethnic Armenian population.

In an interview with Reuters, however, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said such a guarantee was unnecessary, and the demand amounted to interference in Azerbaijan’s affairs.

“We don’t accept such a precondition … for a number of reasons,” he said.

“The most fundamental is the following: this is an internal, sovereign issue. The Azerbaijan constitution and a number of international conventions to which Azerbaijan is party provide all the necessary conditions in order to guarantee the rights of this population.”

He said ethnic Armenians could still use and be educated in their own language and preserve their culture if they integrated into Azeri society and state structures like other ethnic and religious minorities.

Bayramov said there had been “some progress” in peace talks, and that Baku was keen to strike a deal, but also made comments that show how wide the gulf remains before he meets his Armenian counterpart for more talks in Washington next week:

“We believe it was the first time when an Armenian prime minister actually publicly stated this. Why did it take the prime minister two-and-a-half years (since the war ended) to say he actually recognised the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan?”

Bayramov, who was in London to attend a conference about Ukraine’s recovery, complained too about the continued presence of thousands of Armenian troops on Azeri territory.

Moscow – which has peacekeepers on the ground – and Washington and the European Union are all trying separately to help ensure lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have fought two wars since the early 1990s and still have sporadic firefights.

Pashinyan is under pressure at home to protect the rights of the ethnic Armenians living in the enclave as Baku pushes for ethnic Armenian government and military structures to be dissolved and the population to accept Azerbaijani passports.

Tensions have been raised by Baku installing a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor – the only road that connects the enclave with Armenia – following months of disruption caused by people who called themselves Azerbaijani environmental activists.

Baku says the checkpoint is necessary to prevent the smuggling of military supplies into the enclave and illegally-mined materials out. It denies Armenian allegations that it has imposed a blockade that makes life miserable for Karabakh’s inhabitants.

Ruben Vardanyan, a billionaire banker who was a top official in Karabakh’s separatist government until February, on Thursday accused Baku of trying to “ethnically cleanse” the enclave by imposing what he called a goods and energy blockade – allegations that Azerbaijan denies.

Bayramov said a peace deal was within reach if Armenia was ready to take certain steps.

“If there is a will not only to make statements but do some practical steps, I think that potentially it’s possible to reach an agreement even earlier than the end of the year,” he said.

“But if there’s no real readiness … then it might be later.”

6/22/2023 United States (International Christian Concern) ––“This is the oldest Christian nation facing again for the second time in only about a century the possibility of a genocide,” project coordinator Robert Nicholson stated as he returned from his trip from Armenia.  

Nicholson is discussing the Armenian Christians who suffered up to 1.5 million deaths in the waning years of the Ottoman Empire that the U.S. now recognizes as a genocide.  

Former Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback informs Congress about the ongoing crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia as he returned from a fact-finding trip to the two countries Tuesday.  

Alongside the human rights group Philos Project, Brownback traveled to Armenia and Azerbaijan to learn more about the ongoing conflict between Muslims in Azerbaijan and Christians in Armenia. The conflict began after the dissolution of the Soviet Union when both countries claimed the land for themselves. The first Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994 ended with Armenia taking control of Nagorno –Karabakh. 

Conflict reemerged in 2020, with Azerbaijan taking control of large swaths of the region. Armenia’s only access to Nagorno-Karabakh is now through a thin strip of land called the “Lachin corridor.” 

In December, Azerbaijan established a blockade of the Lachin corridor which has resulted in a crippling of the Armenian infrastructure in Nagorno-Karabakh.  

Nicholson said that because of this blockade, “There has been no natural gas flowing since March, and other energy supplies, [such as] electricity, are spotty at best. Families have been separated. Surgeries have been canceled. The 120,000 people inside [Nagorno-Karabakh] are really desperate for help.” 

Coming back from his travels, Brownback has called for Congress to pass a Nagorno-Karabakh Human Rights Act to establish basic security guarantees for the Nagorno-Karabakh population. 

He also called on the U.S. to reinstate previously used sanctions on Azerbaijan should it continue its blockade. Many media outlets have characterized this conflict as a territorial dispute, but both Brownback and Nicholson have clarified that the conflict is more one of ideology and religion.  

With this striking call to action, Nicholson added, “There’s room for the United States to play a very constructive role in helping these different parties, both of which are our allies, to reach a peaceful and just solution to end the conflict.” 

https://www.persecution.org/2023/06/22/brownback-calls-for-armenia-support/

Russia’s military apparatus has been stretched thin by Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The latest setback happened when Ukrainian missiles damaged a bridge that serves as an important supply corridor for Russian forces. Russia’s vulnerability could also impact the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a territory that has had Armenia and Azerbaijan at odds for years.

Armenia has kept Azerbaijan at bay in part because of its ties with Russia, but Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says that could change if the Ukraine War ends badly for Vladimir Putin.

Excerpted from Peter’s June 21 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Armenia and Azerbaijan have some “history” together … and not in a good way. As the Ukraine War ramps up and stress is added to the Russian system, will we see the Armenians and Azerbaijanis creating some new history?

This conflict boils down to ethnic and religious differences and a shared desire to control the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. While both sides have proven their lack of skill on the battlefield, Armenia has been able to deter Azerbaijani assaults thanks to their “partnership” with Russia.

For the past 30 years, we haven’t seen much movement from Azerbaijan; this is to avoid jeopardizing their oil exports and risk retaliations from the Russians. But as Russia becomes overcommitted in its war on Ukraine, we might see some movement on this front.

The territories across the globe that have benefited from a Russian presence are all in a precarious situation. As soon as one domino falls, so will the rest … and the entire global position of the Russian Federation could be wrapped up in a matter of months. But will it be Azerbaijan that falls that first domino?

Watch the video at 

After Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh on December 12, vehicles of Russian peacekeepers and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) were still able to access the region to bring in limited supplies and transport people needing special medical attention. 

But since June 15, Baku has been denying access to all humanitarian convoys, leaving the Armenian population of roughly 120,000 to rely entirely on their own resources.

The total blockade immediately followed a shootout near the newly installed Azerbaijani border post on the road in the Lachin corridor, which connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. 

The Armenian government released a video of the incident that purported to show Azerbaijani border troops escorted by Russian peacekeepers advancing from the checkpoint towards Armenia over the Hakari bridge and hoisting an Azerbaijani flag at the opposite end of the bridge. The group then comes under fire from the Armenian side and retreats. 

Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) reported that its border guards stopped the Azerbaijani soldiers from advancing into Armenian territory in an attempt to plant an Azerbaijani flag there. 

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry responded that their servicemen did not cross into Armenian territory, and the shooting was a “military provocation” attempting to prevent the “successful functioning” of the checkpoint; it added that one Azerbaijani soldier was wounded in the incident. 

The conflicting claims are unsurprising as the border between the two countries is undelimited and undemarcated. 

Following the incident, Azerbaijan suspended all movement along the Lachin corridor “until Armenia takes full responsibility for the provocation it committed.”

Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto state minister, Gurgen Nersisyan, urged the population to live frugally and cut back on consumption. “Our farms will suffice for the population’s basic needs, though at the lowest levels,” he said.

The total blockade came just as Karabakh Armenians had started using the Azerbaijani checkpoint to travel in and out of the region with Russian peacekeeper escort. The checkpoint’s installation in late April followed a four-and-a-half-month blockade staged by Azerbaijani government-backed activists.

Eteri Musayelyan, the ICRC spokeswoman in Karabakh, confirmed to RFE/RL that the Red Cross has been unable to evacuate Karabakhis to Armenia for urgent medical care. She said vehicles carrying 25 patients were turned back after the incident.

Besides food and medicine shortages, the region has had no natural gas supply since March 22, and electricity blackouts become more frequent as the local key reservoir dries up in summer.

“External supplies of food and other essential goods into Nagorno Karabakh are suspended, there is a significant shortage of medication. There’s even no chance to transport critically-ill patients in such conditions. Everything is being done to make the lives of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh impossible. This is what a policy of ethnic cleansing looks like,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on June 22.

As Russian peacekeepers were seen in the video on June 15 escorting Azerbaijani servicemen, the Armenian Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in Yerevan to express “strong discontent” with the peacekeepers’ action.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded on June 22 that the peacekeepers were doing a good job of stabilizing the situation and blamed the incident on the lack of a delimited border. 

Russia periodically oversees peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These talks are not coordinated with the EU and U.S., which also mediate between the parties on a separate track. 

In her remarks, Zakharova called on Baku to “take steps to completely unblock the [Lachin] corridor for humanitarian purposes and not to hold Karabakh’s population hostage to political disagreements with Yerevan.”

Speaking during a visit to Armenia and the Armenia-Karabakh border, chair of the Security and Defense Subcommittee of the European Parliament Nathalie Loiseau, voiced the same sentiment. “Blocking the Lachin Corridor is illegal and must be stopped,” she said. 

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry responded to PM Pashinyan’s accusations on June 22, restating Baku’s intention to do everything to “integrate” the Karabakh Armenians into Azerbaijan’s “political, legal and socioeconomic frameworks.”

Russia on Friday urged Azerbaijan to unblock access to Nagorno-Karabakh as concern grows over a deepening humanitarian crisis in the breakaway region.

Residents of Karabakh reported new shortages of food and medicine after the International Committee of the Red Cross said Azerbaijan had blocked access for convoys delivering aid to the Armenian-populated region last week.