Author: Chalian Meline

ABULFAS GARAYEV: "UNESCO FACT-FINDING MISSION WILL VISIT NAGORNO KARABAKH AFTER THE POLITICAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA"

APA
Sept 14 2009
Azerbaijan

Baku. Ulkar Gasimova – APA. Azerbaijan’s Minister of Culture and
Tourism Abulfas Garayev’s interview to APA

– What a year of Baku – Islamic Cultural Capital bring to Azerbaijan?

– It demonstrated to the world that Azerbaijan is a part of Islamic
Culture and plays important role in its protection. On the other hand,
Azerbaijan’s experience, achievements and people proved that modern,
new and progressive culture and society can be built on the basis
of Islamic Culture. These events are important for popularization
of Azerbaijan’s culture and history. The international conferences
and round tables organized in Azerbaijan created opportunities
to address the problems left in shadow and to realize measures for
their solution. This year plays important role in the popularization
of Azerbaijan’s cultural potential, rich history and cultural values
in the world. Our ministry, other government organizations and public
community have to work actively to fulfill duties arisen from the year
of Baku – Islamic Cultural Capital. We achieved our goals and started
to hold series of events beginning from January, 2009. Azerbaijan
is situated in the geopolitical and geographical space where the
different cultures are crossing. Our goal is to show Azerbaijan as an
example for cross-culture dialogue. First Mugham Festival organized
in Azerbaijan by Mehriban Khanum Aliyeva was a summit of these events.

– How do you see removal of mosques in Baku in the year of Islamic
Cultural Capital?

– Everything should be within the law. If some buildings were
constructed illegally, necessary measures must be taken against it. If
the mosque or other building was constructed within the law, it will
never be removed. Azerbaijani people have immense respect for their
religion. I believe there will not be such cases in future because
the supremacy of law will be secured.

– Is there any program for restoration of historical and cultural
monuments destroyed in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan?

– All of our society is eagerly waiting for restoration of territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan. We are keen to restore historical and cultural
monuments of Azerbaijan. We have never seen Karabakh and other occupied
regions out of our projects. Karabakh and other occupied regions were
approved as a special zone during the determination of tourism places
of Azerbaijan. We have special plans for development of tourism
in those territories. But it must be analyzed at first after the
liberation of those lands. We receive information from the different
sources and we know that historical and cultural monuments, shrines,
mosques and other architectural monuments in those territories are
in bad situation. Probably it will take time to analyze it and only
after that we will make decision on the work to be done there. We
have preliminary plan, but we can’t prepare seriously without real
facts. Azerbaijani architects and historians will express their
opinion after the political agreement.

– Why UNESCO fact-finding mission and Council of Europe Commission
for Education, Science and Culture couldn’t realize their plans to
visit Nagorno Karabakh?

– We are waiting for this mission for three years, but they delay
visit under the different pretexts. We want this visit to be realized
soon. Probably the opposite side fears to show real situation
and creates to prevent this mission. Of course, the international
organizations should make balanced decision considering interests
of both sides. We prepared materials and documents to submit to the
mission, but unfortunately they didn’t realize the visit. I think it
will take place only after the political agreement between Azerbaijan
and Armenia.

– Is the process of re-elaboration of Culture Law started and what
new is expected?

– The law was adopted in Azerbaijan in 1998 and has not been changed
since than. Many things have been changed in Azerbaijan in the
past period. The law should contain both realities of Azerbaijan
and cultural processes in the world, new terminology, ideas and
aspects, because Azerbaijan is a member of international family. The
law should be elaborated with participation of public community. We
consider discussions on cultural strategy of Azerbaijan at first. The
elaboration of law is a multistage process. The present Culture Law
doesn’t contain anything related to show business, but we need to
modernize the law that this sphere also gets opportunity for activity
within the law.

– There were scandals elated to honorable titles. Even there were
some interested points in one of the trials…

– Fortunately, the officials mentioned in this process have no relation
to the culture. I am taking the ministerial post for more than three
years. I make you sure that I and people working with me never be close
to the persons receiving honorable titles. I received only thanks and
nothing else. Those, who intend for the titles and don’t receive it,
are making such claims. I believe that awarding of honorable titles
was fair process as other orders issued by the head of state. There
are new generations, new singers, new performers and cultural figures
in Azerbaijan and the process will be going on. We have enough forces
to value the activity of cultural figures, artists and writers. We
don’t need in outside recommendations.

– It seems you consider the awarding of honorable titles as normal?

– When I was appointed the minister of culture and tourism, I said that
I was against the honorable titles. But there is a tradition today and
it doesn’t need to stop it. It is a value giving to the activity of
people and also material and spiritual support for them. The creative
people are interested that their activity is valued. This is a right
tactic in the present situation.

– What about the launching of cultural TV channel?

– We have to be completely ready for launching of high-level TV
channel. Recently the TV channels give much attention and time to
the culture. We can pen the cultural TV channel in year or two. It
has to cover cinema, creative work, the problem of critique, theories
and other issues.

– When will you start planting of park of destroyed monuments?

– The work was started already. We started qualification and
registration of all architectural monuments. The Baku Executive
Power and State Committee for Architecture and Urban Planning should
allocate place for that park. Then we will collect those statues in
this park that the people can visit and analyze it. We are expected
to solve the issue within a month.

– Are the results of contest for Independence Monument known?

– Unfortunately I can give positive answer because there are no
projects describing Azerbaijan’s independence from the view of
sculpture, architecture and philosophy. We chose best projects,
but didn’t announce winner. We are talking this issue with well-known
intellectuals of the country. We are negotiating with German architects
and sculptors too.

– The European Broadcasting Union addressed the issue of inviting
the Azerbaijani voters for Armenians at the Eurovision 2009 for
testimony. Does this factor impact on Azerbaijan’s future in this
contest?

– I don’t understand who are those Azerbaijani voters supported
Armenians and why they did that. It is an illogical step. On the
other hand, only newspapers reported about their testimony. I think
Armenia is interested in disqualification of Azerbaijan from the
contest. The contest should meet every taste. But honest Azerbaijani
people should never vote for the representatives of Armenia, which
occupied our lands.

– The season of travel is ending. Is the number of tourist arriving
in the country increased?

– There was little increase. The developing tourism infrastructure gave
great impetus to the development of tourism in Azerbaijan. Hotel prices
dropped 20 percent for local population as a result of concurrence.

– Why prices of Azerbaijan’s tourism facilities are higher than
world standards?

-This is free market. If the prices don’t drop, it means there is an
enough requirement. The investors should focus on the construction of
larger hotels in Azerbaijan. I think we have to start the development
of tourism industry with construction of three-star hotels. More than
50 hotels are constructed in Azerbaijan and most of them meet standards
of four- and five-star hotels. Therefore the prices are higher.

– Does the ministry control hotel prices in Azerbaijan?

– We determine only star-level of the hotels, but not the prices. Every
hotel has own price list and we can change the prices only through
the extension of infrastructure within the concurrence.

– How many hotels were closed this year?

– We published the list of hotels closed for unlicensed
activity. Nearly 40 hotels were closed. 10 of them seriously took it
into consideration and appealed for license.

– What do you think about removal of hotels Absheron, Moscow and
Azerbaijan, which were good examples of architecture of that time?

– It is logical to remove and reconstruct the hotels, to make them
according to modern standards. The hotels built in Soviet time
couldn’t be modernized because there were no opportunities for new
communication, ventilation and heating systems. Today new hotels are
constructed in their places.

ARMENIAN FILM IN KINOSHOK FILM FESTIVAL

Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Sept 14 2009
Armenia

Harutyun Khachatryan will present his new film "Border" (2009)
at the Kinoshok Open Film Festival in Anapa (Krasnodar region of
Russia). Yesterday, September 13 the Festival was unveiled. Eligible
for the Festival are Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Latvia,
Lithuania and Estonia.

Among participating films are "Melody for Barrel-organ" by Kira
Muratova (Ukraine), "Meteoidiot" by Nana Djordjadze’s (Russia-Georgia),
"Silence" by Yolkin Tuichiev (Uzbekistan), and many other.

Writer Vladimir Makanin is heading the board of jurors composed of
Algimantas Vidugiris (cameraman), Alla Demidova (film director),
Mikhail Kalatozishvili (director, producer), and Irina Pavlova
(film critic).

OPENING OF BORDER TO CONTRIBUTE TO TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON HISTORICAL ARMENIAN LANDS

PanARMENIAN.NET
11.09.2009 16:17 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In case of opening border with Turkey, Armenia
can become Turkey’s competitor in sphere of developing tourism on
its historical lands, i.e. in Lake Van region, said Arsen Kazaryan,
Head of the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

Armenian entrepreneur finds that within several years, our tourism
and construction specialists will create very good Armenian tourism
centers there. "I hope in the near future we’ll be able to light
candle on Akhtamar island and enjoy the water of lake Van," he said.

Kazaryan also noted that border opening will contribute to the
development of agriculture, energy and textile industry. In that
connection, he informed participants that negotiations are currently
held with Turkish companies for acquiring raw materials in sphere of
knitted fabric production. Such enterprise with Turkish capital already
operates in Spitak. "Our cement plants will be able to increase their
production capacities and meet the demands of Turkish industry,"
he added. There is also potential for cooperation in spheres of
healthcare, science and information technologies. Frontier trade in
Gyumri-Armavir and Kars-Igdir directions will also receive positive
impulse, leading to new job openings.

RULING PARTY MEMBERS AND PRO-OPPOSITION ACTIVISTS EXCHANGED STINGING REMARKS

PanARMENIAN.NET
11.09.2009 19:46 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In a joint press conference held today, Republican
MP Rafik Petrosyan and Pan-Armenian National Movement’s board member
Hovhannes Igityan addressed biting remarks to each other.

"RPA has turned into a clan uniting people for common interests
vs. common ideology. They have absolutely no idea about protocols
and negotiations," Hovhannes Igityan said.

Criticizing Pan-Armenian National Movement, Rafik Petrosyan
noted in turn that "people have obviously forgotten all their evil
deeds. Pan-Armenian National Movement has done nothing good to people,"
Republican MP said, countering his opponent.

AZERBAIJANI AND TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTERS HAD PHONE CONVERSATION ABOUT THE INCIDENT RESULTED WITH THE DEATH OF FIVE ARMENIAN SERVICEMEN

APA
Sept 11 2009
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova – APA. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry publicized
details of phone conversation between the Azerbaijani and Turkish
Foreign Ministers about the incident in the frontline resulted with
the death of five Armenians soldiers.

Mammadyarov told his Turkish counterpart that such incidents happen
in the frontline every day, Spokesman for the Ministry Elkhan
Polukhov told APA. "The military servicemen and civilians suffer
from such shootings. There is no peaceful population in the occupied
territories and only peaceful Azerbaijanis suffer from the violation
of ceasefire. Therefore it couldn’t be called as frozen conflict
today. The conflict is enough serious and shootings occurred every
day prove that".

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told journalists that on
September 10 during his visit to Jordan he phoned his Azerbaijani
counterpart and received information about the incident in the
frontline resulted with the death of five Armenian soldiers,
APA reports quoting the Turkish news agencies. The minister said
Mammadyarov gave all details of the incident. "It is regrettable
incident. But such incidents occurred in the past as well".

TURKEY LUNGES FOR THE EU

EuropeNews
Sept 10 2009
Belgium

Gates of Vienna 10 September 2009

Our Austrian correspondent ESW has compiled a report on last week’s
podium discussion at the University of Vienna on the accession of
Turkey to the EU. Most of her material is translated from an account
by Harald Fiegl, and we owe him a debt of gratitude for his careful
observations of the proceedings.

Report: A Common European Future and Turkey By ESW

Podium Discussion with

Egemen BAGIS, Minister for EU-Affairs and Chief Negotiator

Welcome: Otmar HOLL, Director OIIP

Moderation: Cengiz GUNAY, OIIP

Wednesday, September 2, 2009 6:30 p.m.

Kleiner Festsaal University of Vienna 1010 Vienna, Dr.-Karl-Lueger-Ring
1

organized by OIIP Harald Fiegl, a member of the Akademikerbund
and author of the essay "EU, Turkey, and Islam", attended a podium
discussion featuring the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, who
attempted to present Turkey’s point of view with respect to his
country’s accession aspirations.

Here is Harald’s assessment:

Bagis showed neither the intention of persuading the European
population nor the need to forge friendships. He spoke from a position
of power and considers Turkey’s full membership in the EU beyond any
doubt, as a privileged partnership is out of the question.

Bagis’ arguments in favor of this position are as follows:

* Turkish contributions to European culture and way of life, such as
Mozart’s Turkish March, the opera "The Abduction from the Seraglio",
and coffee; Turkey has geared its policies towards the West for the
past centuries (after 1683, an army reform modeled after European
armies; the term "sick man at the Bosphorus" points to Turkey’s
European affiliation.

* Turkey’s military support of the West in Korea, Somalia, and
Afghanistan as well as Turkey’s sacrifices.

* The EU is in need of Turkey’s young and well-educated and trained
manpower.

* Turkey is crucial for European energy resources.

* Turkey as a full member raises the political strength of the EU.

* Turkey is pushing democratization.

During the question-and-answer session, Harald was able to ask the
following questions:

1. How do the following examples prove "Turkish Europeanness"?

PM Erdogan’s speech in Cologne and the issuing of ultimatums in
EU/Turkey negotiations.

Reply: Erdogan only told Turks living in Germany to learn German.

Why did Turkey take the lead in the Islamic World in the cases of
the Mohammed cartoon crisis and nomination of the new NATO Secretary
General?

Reply: We respect freedom of speech, but we do not respect insulting
religion.

For sake of good relations of NATO with Islamic World Turkey objected
to Rasmussen. We do not want to put at risk the life of western
soldiers. In Ankara we had iftar together and Rasmussen expressed
respect for Islam.

2. During a private conversation, Harald asked even more questions,
such as:

During the course of democratization, will Turkey dismantle the Diyanet
(religious authority)?

Reply: No, as this would be an act of revolution.

By the military?

Reply: No, by the supreme court.

Bagis adds that he himself has already been indicted, he knows how
the Turkish justice systems operates.

3. Other questions from the audience:

– – – – – – – – –

Turkey uses its water to act as a political strongman vis-a-vis Syria.

Reply: This has been sorted out with Syria and there will be
investments made in the area.

Parties with less than ten percent of the vote cannot sit in
parliament, which is not very democratic.

No clear answer.

Will the democratization process end the influence of the military?

Reply: The military is in favor of EU accession.

Religious minorities have no rights in Turkey.

Reply: We are making progress.

In an interview with the Austrian newspaper Kurier (print edition,
Sept.3, 2009, page 5) (), Bagis added, in response to
the interviewer’s question regarding the population’s skepticism,
"The most important factor is time. Europe’s challenges are rising:
energy supply, an aging populace, climate change, the lack of new
markets, the struggle against migrants (immigrants), drug dealers,
and terrorists. At the end of the day, the EU needs Turkey more than
vice versa."

Bagis also explained that "Turkey is currently working on a new
communications strategy, especially geared towards Austria (whose
citizens are extremely critical of Turkey’s accession plans). One
thing is for certain: We do not want to burden the EU; we want to be
part of the EU to solve problems."

To explain these statements, here an excerpt from Harald’s essay
on Turkey:

Turkey’s Janus-faced relations with Europe and the EU — there
was never a Turkish Europeanness and there never will be a Turkish
Europeanness.

Turkey is a regional power with a specific foreign policy and foreign
intervention doctrine, which enables it to counter the divided EU
foreign policy with great power. It has only its own interests in
mind; EU interests are not considered or are even actively worked
against. In line with this foreign policy opportunism, the thrust of
its foreign policy is not only aimed at the EU or Europe, but also
the Islamic and central Asian regions.

There is no shortage of military interventions to enforce its foreign
policy objectives. Approximately 30,000 Turkish soldiers have been
stationed in Cyprus since 1974, although the reason for intervention
(the fall of the Greek military regime) has been eliminated. Military
interventions in northern Iraq are also part of the intervention
doctrine.

Turkey intervenes in order to enforce its interests; if a military
intervention is not feasible, Turkey uses any means of considerable
political and economic pressure. This includes diplomatic activities
in the U.S. and the EU with respect to the Armenian genocide and the
Kurdish PKK.

Turkish interventions against the nomination of former Danish prime
minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as NATO secretary-general remain in
fresh memory. Not freedom of expression, but Muslim sensitivities
were important for Turkey.

Anti-Western sentiments from Turkey are no surprise. In the framework
of the OIC, where the secretary-general is a Turk, Turkey acts as an
important spokesman in the battle of Islam with the West.

This was the case in the cartoon controversy, as it is now with
the current efforts of the OIC to subordinate the UN Human Rights
Declaration of 1948 to sharia law. This notion aims at subduing
criticism regarding the Islamic view on human rights.

Turkey has a constitution incompatible with that of the EU
because political life and religion are under the influence of the
military. The right to exercise religious beliefs and the right to
belong to a religious group are not in the individual’s sphere as it
is in the western world.

The religious authority, the Diyanet, regulates the religious life of
Sunni Islam, the confession of the majority of the population. Other
beliefs are disadvantaged.

The once-thriving Christian minority has been reduced to numerical
insignificance. Even 20 million Alevis, who are considered Muslim,
are impeded by the Sunni majority from practicing their religion.

The Diyanet appoints imams and sends them to countries with Turkish
populations and with populations of Turkish descent, for example
to Germany and Austria. There are local Diyanet representations in
both countries fostering religious and national ties with Turkey,
but not mandating integration efforts into the host society.

In Austria, the Diyanet is represented by ATIB. Turkish secularism
is imposed from above, not grown from the bottom up like Western
secularism. The comparison with French laicism is misleading.

The founder of the Turkish Republic, Kemal Ataturk, established the
separation of religion and state about eighty years ago, with the
military being the guarantor of the secular state and the overseer
of everything from religious life to the banning of political parties.

Despite all of Kemalism’s control, its efforts to inculcate
secularism in the population have failed. Even today there are still
two antagonistic groups: the religious population in rural areas,
including migrants to the cities, and the diminishing group of
western-oriented people in the cities.

One reason for concern is the failure of the Turkish constitutional
court: the judges could not agree on the banning of the ruling
party and the banning of the prime minister, and the head of state
as well as other politicians from politics as such due to disrespect
of principles of Turkish laicism.

For all intents and purposes, Turkey finds itself in a clash
of cultural beliefs. The headscarf has been and remains a highly
explosive ideological matter. In twisting the facts, the EU supports
the Islamic side.

The "moderate Islamist" government is step by step leading Turkey
towards the establishment of an Islamic state, and is currently
completing the necessary ideological reorientation within the state’s
administrative system.

The Turkish constitution provides not only for the special roles of
military and religious authority, but also for a religious-ethnic
centralized state. Consequently, Turkey’s constitution recognizes
no ethnic minorities, such as the twelve million Kurds living within
its borders.

In accordance with this centralized state, a striking nationalism
in Turkey lives protected by penal code provisions (prohibition of
insulting Turkishness, no criticism of the official position towards
the Armenian genocide and the Turkish invasion of Cyprus).

The omnipresent Ataturk images and statues testify to this nationalism
together with the national motto — visible almost everywhere — "If
you’re a Turk, you’re happy". In addition to Islam, this nationalism
offers an explanation for the lack of readiness for integration and
the capabilities of the Turks in Europe.

A shocking demonstration of this religious-nationalist attitude is
the murder of the employees of a Bible-printing press in Malatya
in 2007. The perpetrators justified this act as a fight against the
enemies of the faith and the Turkish nation.

Then German socialist MEP Vural Oger, of Turkish descent, poured
oil on the fire when he declared that the EU was responsible for
this criminal act because of the pressure applied on the Turkish
legislature to institute reforms.

Bringing the Turkish constitution into line with EU principles would
entail the destruction of both pillars of the Turkish constitution
and would thus put an end to Ataturk’s Turkey.

In addition, it can be seen in all clarity that the EU will either
accept a de facto military dictatorship or an Islamic state within
its ranks provided the "negotiations" with the EU continue to proceed
at the same pace. In any case, the EU will remain the pawn of Turkish
politics.

Turkeys ploughs its way into the European Union. It bullies concessions
and does not show any willingness to fulfill accession criteria. It
follows its well-established negotiation tactics: wooing — being
offended — threatening.

It wants a Turkish Europe, as clearly expressed by the Turkish prime
minister, during his recent appearance in Cologne.

Reason becomes nonsense, benefits turn into menace.

DAVID HAYRAPETYAN AND MISHA ALOYAN MAKE IT TO BOXING CHAMPIONSHIP SEMIFINALS.

PanARMENIAN.Net
10.09.2009 09:56 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian boxers David Hayrapetyan (under 48 kg)
and Misha Aloyan (under 51 kg) presenting Russia at Milan World
Championship made it to the semifinals.

Hatrapetyan became the first representative of Russia to make it to
Milan World Championship semifinals, which guarantees at least a bronze
medal. Armenian boxer bet Jose de la Nieve of Spain 12:3 in 1/4 finals.

Aloyan, who had his debut fight at the championship defeated Thai
Amnay Rueron 7:5.

Next, Aloyan will combat against Tugtsog Niyambar of
Mongolia. Hayrapetyan will rival John Khun Shin of South Korea,
who gained a sensational 14:5victory over Cuban Daniel Matellon Ramos.

Representatives of Russia Eduard Abzalimov (under 54 kg), Vergey
Vodopyanov (under 57 kg), Albert Selimov (under 60 kg), Andrei Zamkovoy
(under 69 kg), Artur Beterbiev (under 81 kg) and Egor Mekhontsev
(under 91 kg) also made it to the finals.

Russian team is leading the championship with 8 of its boxers as gold
medal pretenders.

At the semifinals, Cuban and Uzbekistan teams will present 4 boxers
each, Mongolia and Ukraine -3 boxers, China, Italy, Puerto Rico and
France – 2 boxers. Each of 14 countries at the championship retained
1 gold medal pretenders.

ARMENIA DEFEATS BELGIUM 2-1

armradio.am
10.09.2009 12:15

Armenia grabbed their first win in Group 5 of European Zone qualifying
for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa, goals from Hovhannes Goharyan
and Sargis Hovsepyan seeing off Belgium.

Prior to this game in Yerevan, Armenia had only taken one point from
seven previous matches in the pool and still remain a point behind
Estonia in the fight to avoid the wooden spoon.

According to the FIFA official website, Belgium made the better
start, and Standard Liege forward Igor de Camargo was the first to
go close before the hosts carved out their first opportunity in the
17th minute. Goharyan played in Arman Karamyan, who advanced through
on Jean-Francois Gillet, and the goalkeeper did enough to turn his
close-range effort on to the post.

The chance gave Armenia confidence and BATE Borisov forward Goharyan
put them in front six minutes later, when he fired in a rebound after
Gillet had parried Henrykh Mkhitaryan’s shot.

The home team could have added a second before the break, with captain
Hovsepyan missing the best of the chances they created between scoring
the opener and the half-time whistle blowing. Pyunik player Hovsepyan
made amends in style by doubling Armenia’s lead five minutes into
the second period.

Belgium finally stepped up their efforts but Van Buyten and Tom de
Sutter missed good opportunities to halve the deficit. Gevorg Kasparov
did brilliantly to save a close-range header from De Camargo in the
86th minute before Van Buyten scored right at the death, too late to
rescue even a point.

Franky Vercauteren quit as Belgium coach following his team’s 2-1
defeat to Armenia which ended their hopes of reaching the 2010 FIFA
World Cup South Africa finals.

THE BRADLEY EFFECT WAS ABOUT GUNS, NOT RACISM
Joe Mathews

New America Foundation
articles/2009/bradley_effect_was_about_guns_not_ra cism_17339
Sept 8 2009

California Journal of Politics and Policy | 2009 Asked why he won,
Deukmejian said he thought he was the stronger candidate, but mentioned
the absentee vote program, too. He paused. "I think it was the gun
control initiative," he said.

About These Icons Asked why he won, Deukmejian said he thought he
was the stronger candidate, but mentioned the absentee vote program,
too. He paused. "I think it was the gun control initiative," he
said. Related Programs: New America in California

Nelson Rising, chairman of Tom Bradley’s 1982 campaign for California
governor, still remembers the phone call. Bradley called him shortly
after 4 a.m. on a long election night, when it was clear Bradley had
lost to Republican attorney general George Deukmejian.

"You were right," Bradley told Rising a bit wearily.

With those words, Bradley, the Democratic mayor of Los
Angeles, acknowledged that a political mistake had cost him the
governorship. And, despite all the theories that the election produced
a "Bradley effect"–a supposed secret racist vote undetected by
polling–the mayor himself knew that his loss had different causes.

The main cause was guns. Against Rising’s advice, Bradley had endorsed
Proposition 15, a statewide ballot initiative that would have put
a freeze on purchases of new handguns. Bradley and Proposition
15 both had a lead in the polls when Bradley decided to back the
initiative. But there was a huge backlash against Proposition 15
in conservative California precincts. The resulting turnout was so
overwhelming that it took down Bradley–just as Rising had predicted
in a campaign meeting months earlier.

"I will never forget that meeting," Rising recalled. "I said,
‘I don’t own a gun. I don’t intend to own a gun. If I could design
a world without guns, I would. But Tom, if you support this, you
can’t win.’" The mayor’s other political aides were less worried
at the time. Prop. 15 had a lead in the polls in the early fall,
and so did the mayor. "The view was that it was a win-win," Rising
recalled. What’s more, Bradley, a former L.A. cop, believed strongly in
gun control. But Prop. 15 had become a rallying point for Deukmejian,
and helped bring out unexpectedly high turnouts in inland California,
where shooting and hunting were very much a way of life. This surge
in turnout changed the shape of the electorate. Surveys at the time
showed that 35 percent of California’s registered voters had a gun
in the house. Among those who cast ballots in November 1982, nearly
half were gunowners, according to exit surveys.

"Without Tom Bradley endorsing Prop. 15," said Steve Merksamer, who
served as campaign chair for Deukmejianand as the governor’s chief
of staff, "we would have lost."

When the 1982 contest is recalled today, it is often assumed that
pre-election polls showing a Bradley victory were wrong because
of race. But there is no clear evidence of that. Last fall, when
some commentators were suggesting a "Bradley effect" could explain
presidential candidate Barack Obama’s lead in the polls, I examined
surveys and news stories from the 1982 race, and talked with more
than a dozen major players in both the Bradley and Deukmejian
campaigns. Only two expressed any belief in the idea that the 1982
California governor’s race saw a "Bradley effect." And even those two
campaign workers, former Bradley aides Phil Depoian and Bill Elkins,
maintain that without Prop. 15, Bradley almost certainly would have
won anyway.

"Today, when I hear very intelligent people talking about the
Bradley effect as if it actually happened, I just scratch my head,"
said Rising. "If there is such an effect, it shouldn’t be named for
Bradley, or associated with him in any way."

According to those who were there, the real lessons of the Bradley
campaign involve the dangers posed by divisive issues and by
a candidate’s own allies. Bradley’s campaign suffered three
self-inflicted wounds it could not overcome.

The first, of course, was guns. Proposition 15, which put a cap on
gun ownership, had been qualified for the ballot by men who were
Bradley’s friends; chief among them was John Phillips. Prop. 15
proposed to limit the number of pistols in private hands in the state
to the number legally owned as of April 30, 1983. Only law enforcement
personnel could buy new guns.

Some Bradley aides said they tried to convince Phillips to wait
and qualify the measure for a later election, so as not to hurt the
mayor’s campaign. Phillips, later an attorney in Washington, didn’t
remember any such appeals.

What Phillips remembered was having all eyes on him at the election
night party at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown L.A. "Everybody blamed
me for the defeat of the first black governor of California–I know
Bradley felt that himself," said Phillips. Some people in the campaign
still do.

"Now, I always smile when I read about the Bradley effect," said
Phillips, jovially. "Thank God I’ve been vindicated 25 years
later. It’s not my fault."

The second wound: absentee ballots. The 1982 election in California was
the first under new laws that made it easier to vote absentee. Voters
no longer needed a specific reason–such as illness or a trip out of
state–to request an absentee ballot. Democrats had lobbied for the
changes, but Bradley’s campaign did little to take advantage.

Republicans, led largely by people involved in that year’s U.S. Senate
campaign of then-San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson, skillfully exploited
the new rules by sending absentee ballot request forms to more than
two million registered Republicans. The forms included an envelope
with postage already paid.

"I think it was significant," said Wilson, who served eight years
in the Senate and two terms as California governor. "We figured,
‘We’ll get a higher percentage of our registered voters to vote than
the Democrats will get of their registered voters.’"The Republican
strategy worked. Bradley won 19,000 more votes than Deukmejian among
those who cast ballots in precincts. But Deukmejian won the absentees
by more than 100,000.

In a 1983 report on the election, pollster Mervin Field, who had
predicted a Bradley victory based on exit polling, said this surge
in absentee voting was the "primary cause" of the poor election
night prognostication. Polling models had been based on an absentee
vote similar to the 304,000 votes cast in the previous gubernatorial
election in 1978. But in November 1982, more than 506,000 votes for
governor came from absentees.

Finally, the third wound: low African-American turnout. This was a
three-part problem, involving black voters, regional rivalries and,
some suggest, football.

Bradley, wary of being seen as "the black candidate," didn’t campaign
in the black community and didn’t do enough to turn out black voters,
some aides recalled. "The position we took was, ‘My God, this is
a historical event and black folks are going to turn out as never
before,’" said Bill Elkins, one of Bradley’s closest aides. "And
instead, the turnout did not reach the level we thought it would."

In their turnout models, pollsters had expected that minority
voters–black, Latino and Asian–would makeup 20 percent of the
electorate. Post election estimates put the figure at just 15
percent. Black turnout–in fact, Democratic turnout, in general–was
lower than expected in the Bay Area. Campaign veterans on both sides
of the race believe northern Californians didn’t trust Bradley,
in large part because he was mayor of their unpopular regional rival.

Deukmejian told me in an interview last fall: "Tom Bradley was popular
in southern California, but people throughout the rest of the state
were not all that comfortable having someone who was mayor of Los
Angeles as their governor."

To make matters worse, Los Angeles, under Bradley, had lured away the
popular Oakland Raiders football team that same fall. "It was about
football," said Bill Norris, a longtime Bradley supporter who was a
federal appellate judge at the time. "The turnout in black precincts
in Oakland was below expectations, and I believe that’s because of
hard feelings that L.A. had stolen the team."

Deukmejian’s campaign avoided the subject of race, except at one
crucial moment a month before the election. Bill Roberts, a campaign
consultant, told a group of reporters that public opinion polls
might not be picking up racial bias in the vote. Deukmejian dismissed
Roberts from the campaign, but Roberts’s comments, as much as anything,
are responsible for the idea of a "Bradley effect."

Some Bradley supporters thought Roberts’s comments, while repudiated
by Deukmejian, had an impact on the race. But pollsters and political
pros said there’s no clear evidence of that. Bradley, in fact,
did well with white voters in urban and suburban areas, where gun
ownership is lower. The Los Angeles mayor won relatively conservative
San Diego County, quite a feat for a Democrat.

In his postelection report, Field–while allowing that the gun issue,
absentee votes and lower-than-expected minority turnout explained
polling errors–clung to the idea that Bradley may have lost the
election because of his race. Field based this view on a series of
statistical extrapolations from the same exit polls that led to his
faulty predictions on election night.

More than three percent of Deukmejian voters indicated in exit polls
that their vote was based on a desire not to vote for the black
candidate. Field, extrapolating, estimated that the three percent
amounted to 136,000 racist votes for Deukmejian. Exit surveys also
found that 0.6 percent, or about 23,000 Bradley voters under Field’s
extrapolations, had voted against Deukmejian because of the attorney
general’s Armenian background. And finally, Field found that Bradley
out-performed a typical Democratic statewide candidate by about three
percent points among black voters. On that basis, Field estimated
that Bradley gained16,500 votes because of his race.

Throwing those figures together, Field said Deukmejianhad a net
advantage of 96,000 votes from prejudice. Deukmejian won by 93,000.

Field’s view left hard feelings. Some former Deukmejianaides still
blame Field for creating a lasting impression that there was something
wrong with the election.

Officials of both campaigns said their polls showed a tightening
race. The Deukmejian tracking poll results, which his former of
chief staff Merksamer keeps framed in his Sacramento law office,
show a rapidly narrowing race. Bradley was up 12 on Oct. 7, up four
on Oct. 14, and up just one point in the final tracking poll, two
days before the election.

"We thought it was going to be close," said Rising of the Bradley
campaign.

Setting aside the strange math, it’s worth noting that the exit polls
weren’t wrong just in Bradley’s race. In the U.S. Senate contest,
public polls and exit polls also predicted an arrow victory for the
Democratic candidate, the departing Gov. Jerry Brown. Wilson beat
Brown by six points.

Wilson recalled that the mood was dark at his election night
headquarters at first, as the polling suggested he had lost, before
the actual returns brightened spirits. Around midnight, Wilson talked
by phone with Deukmejian, who said he’d lost.

In an interview last fall, Deukmejian said election night was hard. "I
was very, very dejected. And I was praying." Not wanting to hang out
at the election night party and wait for what might be bad news, he
went home to Long Beachand stayed up all night, listening to returns
on a news radio station. He learned he had won shortly before dawn.

Asked why he won, Deukmejian said he thought he was the stronger
candidate, but mentioned the absentee vote program, too. He paused. "I
think it was the gun control initiative," he said.

Bradley, who died in 1998, didn’t dwell on the defeat. He ran
again in 1986, but was beaten badly by Deukmejian, then a popular
incumbent. Depoian, who managed the 1982 campaign for the mayor, said,
"Ten years later, if you were to ask Bradley what happened, he’d say,
‘I don’t know. Maybe it was gun control.’ He didn’t talk about it. He
was a very forward-looking guy.’"

EU HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR CFSP, ON NORMALISATION OF RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY, ARMENIA

US State News
September 7, 2009 Monday 11:05 AM EST

The European Union’s European Council issued the following press
release:

Javier SOLA:A, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and
Security Policy (CFSP), today made the following statement on the
normalisation of relations between Turkey and Armenia:

"I welcome yesterday’s agreement between Turkey and Armenia to start
internal political consultations on the protocols providing the
framework for establishing diplomatic relations.

This is a crucial step towards normalisation of bilateral relations,
which would greatly contribute to peace, security and stability
throughout an important region of Europe.

I commend the courage and vision of both sides to move forward
with this historic process. I hope the two protocols can be signed,
ratified, and implemented in the near term.

I congratulate Switzerland for its mediation efforts and stands ready
to offer support and assistance to the normalisation process.