SNAIL PACE KARABAKH ESCALATION BRINGS DRAMATIC RISKS FOR REGION AND EUROPE
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 14:51:17 – 19/06/2012
On 18 June 2012, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs met together with
the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Paris. European
Friends of Armenia () shares the disappointment and
recommendations issued yesterday by the three Co-Chairing Presidents
at the G20 summit in Los Cabos (Mexico). In particular we regret that
Azerbaijan continues blocking the key confidence building measures,
i.e. the establishment of an investigation mechanism for incidents
on the line of contact, the removal of snipers and promotion of
people to people contacts. The on-going snail pace escalation of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict brings dramatic risks for the entire
South-Caucasus region, as well as for the Middle East and Europe. The
following facts summarise the situation:
· Tensions have more and more moved away from smaller sniper incidents
to artillery shelling and incursions on the other side
· Azerbaijan has made a number of attacks on mainland Armenia with
military and civilian casualties (targets included an ambulance and a
kindergarten). Azeri media justified this with “preventing provocations
on the Armenian side”
· There is no perspective for confidence building, amid last week’s
and yesterday’s refusal by Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Mammadyarov
to implement OSCE calls for the removal of snipers and an investigation
mechanism for incidents on the line of contact. (see details below)
War threats from Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev and his administration
are continuing
On 25-27 June, Armenia will simulate a general mobilisation for the
defence case of a full-scale war
“Ignoring the Presidents’ agreement of Sochi, Azerbaijan now conditions
every progress on the removal of troops. For good reasons, the Madrid
Principles proposed by the Minsk-Group foresee a troop removal in
the very specific context of the other parts of the package, ensuring
that there would be no vacuum of power and security, but an interim
status guarded by international troops and guarantees.
To pre-condition all confidence building measures to a unilateral
removal of troops is more than cynical and effectively means that Baku
simply refuses all the diplomatic steps proposed by the OSCE. This
maximalist approach means further escalation.” concludes Dr Michael
Kambeck, EuFoA Secretary General. “A new war would come at insane
costs to all sides, and would certainly destroy the Azerbaijani
petro-industry, the source of Azerbaijan’s wealth and defence budget.
This may seem irrational but it is consistent, also with the highly
aggressive speeches of President Aliyev addressing international
audiences.”
EuFoA repeats its call upon the EU and other international actors
to stop “calls upon both sides” and instead to specify more clearly
which actions are expected from each side, as otherwise the respective
sources of the problems are encouraged to continue their dangerous
behaviour. The sides should also be commended individually for
positive steps and initiatives. This will assist a more result
oriented negotiation under the OSCE Minsk Group mediation. It is a
perverted interpretation of impartiality to call upon both sides,
when some problems clearly originate from this or the other side.
Details about confidence building measures:
The OSCE, the Minsk-Group Co-Chairs and the EU have repeatedly urged
the two sides to remove their snipers from the line of contact and
implement the “Sochi agreement” for an investigation mechanism for
each of the shooting incidents. During his visit to Yerevan and Baku
last week, the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Ireland’s Deputy Prime
Minister and Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore, repeated this call.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Mammadyarov agreed “in principle” but
conditioned any such confidence building measure with the removal of
Armenian and Karabakhi troops. “If we start applying that mechanism
now, that will only mean reinforcing the status quo, which is
unacceptable.” Cynically, he went on to explain “However, after the
troops are withdrawn, this mechanism will not be required.” The same
counts for the question of removing snipers, for which he declared
“After the troops are withdrawn, snipers on the border will not be
required.’ Note that the two steps are meant to reduce the number
of casualties and create a climate in which the sides can agree
and implement the Madrid Principles, which include (L’Aquila – 10
July 2009): return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to
Azerbaijani control an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing
guarantees for security and self-governance a corridor linking Armenia
to Nagorno-Karabakh future determination of the final legal status
of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will the
right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to
their former places of residence international security guarantees
that would include a peacekeeping operation
EuFoA also awaited a clearer public communication from Armenia,
which Foreign Minister Nalbandyan gave last week during the meeting
with Eamon Gilmore “I would like to add, that Armenia has been and
is for the creation of the mechanisms of investigation and, unlike
Azerbaijan, when we agree on something, we do not backtrack on the
following day. I should recall that corresponding elements of the
establishment of mechanisms are included in the relevant statements
made by the Presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan in March
2011 and January 2012 in Sochi. We respect those agreements and we
are for the creation of this mechanism.”