Author: Badalian Vardan

AZERBAIJAN TO RAISE ISSUE AT OSCE PA WINTER SESSION REGARDING MINSK GROUP’S INACTIVITY

APA
[ 18 January 2013 15:13 ]

Baku. Mubariz Aslanov – APA. The inactivity of Minsk Group towards the
settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in the recent years will
be discussed at the winter session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
(PA) on the initiative of the Azerbaijani delegation, Bahar Muradaova,
head of the Azerbaijani delegation to OSCE PA and vice-speaker of
the Azerbaijani Parliament, told APA.

Bahar Muradova said they will bring the Nagorno Karabakh conflict to
agenda again during the discussions at the session and especially
stress the inactivity of Minsk Group, the only mediator in the
settlement of the conflict: “We will try to discuss mediators’ failure
to produce results and to achieve adoption of certain decision.”

Muradova noted every time the mediators pretext the elections in their
countries or in the countries involved in the conflict and attribute
the delay of negotiations to them: “In their responses to our critical
remarks, they will say again that last year was stagnation due to
the elections in the mediating countries and stagnation is also
expected again due to the elections in conflict sides. Therefore,
we are preparing for their answers.”

The next winter session of OSCE PA will be held on February 21-22
in Vienna.

TOUGH YEAR LOOMS FOR AZERBAIJAN

Ilan Greenberg | January 18, 2013

Hosting the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest did not contribute to a lot
of good press for the government of Azerbaijan. European media in
particular vacillated between derision over ostentatious spectacle
and outrage over authoritarian fiats.

But 2013 may get a lot worse for Baku. A troubled oil sector, an
upcoming presidential election, and the potential for rising tensions
with archenemy Armenia portend a challenging year for Azerbaijan’s
ruling class.

The country’s uncertain oil output is a singular worry. Azerbaijan,
a major oil producer in the former Soviet Union, produced 39.3
million metric tons in 2012, down 7.35 percent from a year earlier,
according to Socar, the national oil company. Azerbaijan’s extraction
economy accounts for approximately 53 percent of GDP and 92 percent
of exports, according to Transparency International. Meanwhile, the
United States imported thirteen million barrels from Azerbaijan in
2011, compared to more than twenty million barrels in 2010.

The Center for Economic & Social Development, a think tank in
Azerbaijan focused on the country’s sustainable economic development,
stated in a November 2011 report that the “oil boom in Azerbaijan is
doomed to end in a few years.” A precipitous decline in oil revenue,
given Azerbaijan’s extremely high dependence on energy extraction,
poses a dire threat to the country’s economy even without the expected
volatility in this year’s international oil market.

And this year, Azerbaijan’s sovereign oil-wealth fund will run a
deficit in the billions of dollars-a severe problem for a government
that depends on the fund for almost 60 percent of its total budget.

Thinning oil exports has been already a visible source of strain
for the Azerbaijan government, on dramatic display last year when
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliev lashed out at British Petroleum,
a vital partner in pipelines and Caspian oil fields, for reduced
oil revenues at the giant Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli energy fields (which
comprises about 80 percent of total Azeri oil production). Aliev held
BP responsible for “grave errors” and “false promises” responsible
for an $8 billion government budget shortfall.

To be sure, Azerbaijan’s oil revenues continue to rise, even if
production is peaking, and typically government takes a higher share
of revenues as projects mature and the oil companies have recovered
their investments. The government has billions in foreign cash reserves
and the Asia Development Bank forecasts Azerbaijan’s GDP in 2013 will
grow at a 3.5 percent clip.

But oil revenue woes come as the country prepares for an election. To
the shock of no one, Aliev, whose talented father was the last
Soviet-era president of the republic and widely thought to be the
successor to Mikhail Gorbachev, will run for a third term. Previous
parliamentary and presidential elections have seen the ruling Yeni
Azerbaijan Party roll over, at times brutally, fractured and flawed
opposition parties, and could do so again.

But that Eurovision Song Contest could mean the 2013 presidential
election will receive more sustained press coverage than in the past.

Popular consternation about oil revenue and pent up frustration
over corruption and public sector mismanagement combined with an
uncharacteristically unified opposition could create, however unlikely,
a more combustible election outlook.

Political instability is not an encouraging ingredient for quieting
Azerbaijan’s intensifying cold war with neighboring Armenia (nor,
actually, is political stability, which fuels militant rhetoric as a
mechanism to maintain a bilateral political status quo). Armenia is
also holding a presidential election this year, probably precluding
any high-level negotiations between the two sides and adding more
worry to a distressing conflict.

Whether or not Azerbaijan successfully navigates its challenges with
oil revenue and elections, it faces a rocky path in 2013.

Ilan Greenberg is a journalist and visiting public policy scholar at
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, International
Security Studies Program, in Washington, DC.

ARMENIA MAY GET OUT OF ISOLATION THANKS TO GEORGIA’S BALANCED AND FORWARD-LOOKING POLICY

NEWS.AM
January 18, 2013 | 13:53

YEREVAN.- Georgian PM Bidzina Ivanishvili is carrying out the most
realistic and balanced policy in the interests of Georgians, head of
Noravank analytic center Gagik Harutyunyan told reporters.

He said former Georgian government not always acted in the national
interests, maintaining quite reserved relationship with Armenia with
a focus on Turkey and Azerbaijan.

“New government’s policy differs considerably, arousing concern of
Azerbaijan and Turkey. Since Ivanishvili took the office, there is a
unique opportunity to improve relations between Armenia and Georgia,
despite existing problems. Opening of the Abkhazian railway will affect
the existing situation,” he said during a Friday press conference.

Thanks to a balanced and forward-looking policy, Armenia may get out
of isolation, creating partner relations with Georgia to become an
active participant of regional energy and transparent projects.

OPERATION OF ABKHAZIAN RAILWAY IS COMPLICATED
Roza Hovhannisyan

14:55 18/01/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:

The Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili stated in Yerevan
yesterday that the operation of the Abkhazian railway connecting
Armenia and Russia is a possible option.

The Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili said the prime minister’s
statement is not realistic. He noted that Russia thereby wants to
legitimize the occupation of Abkhazia. Besides, Saakashvili stated that
this railway is worn, and Georgia has built the new Kars-Akhalkalaki
railway with Azerbaijan so the Abkhazian railway is not vital.

At the same time, he noted that Georgia facilitates Armenian shipments,
namely he mentioned the opening of Verin Lars, works in Poti port,
stressing that maintaining good relations with Armenia is one thing
and implementations of an occupant’s plans is another thing.

Alexander Rondeli, the director of the Georgian Foundation of
Strategic and International Studies, commented on the statements of
the president and the prime minister. He noted that Saakashvili also
used to think about operating the railway but soon hindering factors
became known. Rondeli notes that the new prime minister thinks there
is an opportunity to operate this railway but it will take time.

The political scientist thinks that the operation of the railway does
not depend on Armenia and Georgia and there exists the factor of Russia
and Abkhazia. Alexander Rondeli said in this stage Saakashvili rules
out the operation of the railway.

He reminds that in this stage Abkhazia is against the operation
of the railway. The opening of the railway may promote economic
development but the issue is politically linked to the loss of the
territory of Abkhazia, which complicates the situation, the political
scientist says.

He notes that the people of Abkhazia are not keen on the railway
either. He thinks the operation of the railway is impossible in the
nearest future because the sides have different positions. If the
sides – Georgia and Russia – come to terms, one should not forget
about Abkhazia which is not recognized by us, Rondeli said.

HERITAGE PARTY LEADER CALLS FOR PARTICIPATING IN VOTING, INVITES ARMENIAN PRESIDENT TO DEBATE

TERT.AM
18.01.13

Chairman of the Heritage party and one of the presidential candidates
Raffi Hovannisian hopes for free and fair elections in Armenia during
in the past two decades and for de jure democratic results provided
Armenia’s society participates in the voting and President Serzh
Sargsyan meets the demands incorporated in the 15-point document.

Although Mr Hovannisian will yet appeal to the people, he told
journalists on Friday that the Heritage party will participate in the
presidential election. “Although they have the right to feel offended
and disappointed, I am calling on them to participate in the voting
because it is only their participation that will enable us to see
changes in the situation,” Mr Hovannisian said.

He also intends to submit a 15-point package of demands to Armenia’s
president.

According to Mr Hovannisian, President Serzh Sargsyan must order all
the posters of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) to be
removed from public building. Armenia’s public sector must not be
involved in the activities of any political party.

Armenia’s leader must pledge to punish all the officials regardless
of their party affiliation if they violate Armenia’s Constitution,
he said.

Mr Hovannisian demands that the Armenian president stop “intimidating
and persecuting fellow citizens.” “The government bodies under his
control must immediately change their approach to civil right,”
he said.

Mr Hovannisian has held meetings with active members of the party.

“But hardly with any explanations, dozens of policemen followed me,
with state funds wasted. I am stating that during the coming 28 days
I do not need any special security measures. You are sending security
agents to video your own fellow citizens instead of guarding the
border a few kilometers away,” he said.

He invites Armenia’s president to a public debate.

ARMENIAN PUPILS START BY WINNING 6 MEDALS AT OLYMPIAD

Panorama.am
15:46 18/01/2013

At the Zhautikova 9th international Olympiad at Almaty, Kazakhstan,
the Armenian team of Physics and Mathematics school after A. Shahinyan
received 6 medals of which 3 are silver and 3 are bronze. 39 teams
from 13 countries with 350 participants took part in the Olympiad.

According to the Education and Science Ministry press office the
victories of 2013 pupils’ Olympiad kicked off students of Physics
and Mathematics school.

The winners are:

Minasyan Edgar- Mathematics, 11th class, Silver Medal Hovsepyan Narek-
Mathematics, 12th class, Silver Medal Petrosyan Alexander- Physics,
12th class, Bronze Medal Hovhannisyan Razmik– Physics, 12th class,
Bronze Medal Sahakyan Alvert-Informatics,12th class, Silver Medal
Hambardzumyan Karen– Informatics,12th class, Bronze Medal

HEAD OF THE ARCHIVES OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE IN THE DEFENDANT’S CHAIR FRI, 01/18/2013 – 14:37

Factinfo

Today in Arabkir and Qanaker-Zeytun Court of First Instance, presided
by Judge Arthur Lazarian, a criminal case started against the head of
the Central Archives of the Ministry of Defense Hambardzum Pkhrikyan.

The head of the Central Archives of the Ministry of Defense, the
resident of Yerevan H. Pkhrikyanin is charged with fraud with a group
of persons by prior agreement and abuse of official power.

Criminal investigation of the case revealed that he being the head of
the archives, a civil servant, with the abuse of his position came to
a preliminary agreement with the sergeant of N unit of the Ministry
of Defense Ruzanna Abrahamyan, with the use of deceit and abuse of
trust, with the pretense of the registration of, Tigran Hovhannisyan,
son of Kamo Hovhannisyan, in the commissariat, illegally demanded
and received 1 900 000 AMD from the latter.

The sergeant of the N Unit of the Ministry of Defense Ruzanna Pkhrikyan
is also charged with the same Article 178 Section 2 Clauses 1 and 2,
for demanding and receiving 1 900 000 AMD illegally.

NEW REALITY: IVANISHVILI VISIT TO YEREVAN HOLDS OUT PROSPECTS FOR CLOSER ARMENIAN-GEORGIAN TIES
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN

ArmeniaNow
ANALYSIS | 18.01.13 | 13:15

Georgia’s new authorities appear to be determined to abandon the policy
of isolationism from Russia, which has been adopted by the current
president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who is due to leave later this year.

As a result of this policy carried out ever since the Rose Revolution
of 2003 and culminating in the August 2008 five-day war in South
Ossetia, Georgia got almost completely isolated from Russia, as a
result Armenia also lost a railway link opportunity via Abkhazia. It
is this policy that appears to have proved the Achilles heel of
Saakashvili, who has not been forgiven despite all the democratization
and liberalization of the country that he has achieved in recent years.

One of the first statements of current Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili, who came to power as a result of the October 1
parliamentary elections in Georgia, concerned the possibility of
resuming the operation of the Abkhazian section of the Russian-Georgian
railway. The offer was accepted with great interest in Russia, in
Armenia, as well as in Georgia itself. Among those opposed to it
were Azerbaijan, Turkey and Saakashvili, who have designed and are
currently building a Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway bypassing
both Russia and Armenia.

Visiting Baku at the end of last year, Ivanishvili met there some
fierce resistance to the Abkhazian railroad project, however, on
January 17 in Yerevan, he said that the work on lobbying this project
will continue, and Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan promised
to support him in this.

Ivanishvili was still in Yerevan when Saakashvili’s angry reaction
came. The outgoing head of state of Georgia called Ivanishvili’s
statement on the possible restoration of the railway link with
Russia ‘anti-state’. According to him, there is no need for such a
railway today, as Georgia has an alternative way to Europe via the
Kars-Akhalkalaki link, and this route is rivaling especially that of
Russia. “The issue of restoring railway communication must be discussed
only after solving the problem of Abkhazia’s de-occupation or in
parallel with this issue, because the restoration of the railway link
will be a de-facto legalization of Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia,”
said Saakashvili.

Abkhazia could accept the proposal of opening the railway only
on condition that Georgia will not insist on the return of its
breakaway republic. Apparently, Ivanishvili’s proposal implies this
very variant – opening up communications without a political solution
to the conflict.

This method has already for several years been proposed
by international experts also for the Karabakh conflict and
Turkish-Armenian relations. It implies opening the communication –
railways, pipelines, power lines – without discussing political
issues. But as the main weapon of Turkey and Azerbaijan on
Nagorno-Karabakh is the continuing blockade, they have been reluctant
to accept the offer, because that would deprive them of all but a
single tool.

Similarly, Saakashvili can not give up the policy of isolationism,
condemning his people and Armenia to the absence of a cheaper
rail link to Russia. Ivanishvili apparently decided to change this
tradition. From the very beginning he stated his intention to establish
relations with all neighbors of Georgia, including with Russia. While
the Abkhaz and South Ossetian issues remain a stumbling block in the
relationship, it is not excluded that Armenia would be the one to
help in settling these issues.

Media reports suggest that recently Yerevan hosted closed
Georgian-Ossetian negotiations, apparently, at the level of the public,
but it is also possible that Armenia will one day become an arena for
a Caucasian reconciliation. In any case, the Georgian prime minister
made some gestures towards Yerevan – at a meeting with Catholicos of
All Armenians Karekin II he promised to take care of the Armenian
churches of Georgia and to allow the teaching of the history of
Armenia at Armenian schools in Georgia in Armenian.

The Armenian community of Georgia can be fully confident that the
promises given to it during the election campaign will be fulfilled,
stressed Ivanishvili at a press conference in Yerevan on Thursday. He
stressed that during the campaign he visited all Armenian-populated
provinces of Georgia where he got warm receptions. “Armenians will
feel at home in Georgia,” said Ivanishvili, adding that he has many
friends among Armenians as well.

While receiving the delegation led by Ivanishvili later that day,
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan stressed that Yerevan is interested
in stability in Georgia and wants to further strengthen the brotherly
relations that will benefit both nations.

The Georgian prime minister assured Sargsyan that his government will
do everything possible for Armenian-Georgian relations to become
“the best in history”. He also spoke about boosting economic ties
between the two neighboring countries.

Addressing the possibility of resuming the railway link connecting
Armenia with Russia via Abkhazia, Ivanishvili said that “we need to
work over an urgent solution to this problem”.

And Armenian Prime Minister Sargsyan thanked his Georgian counterpart
for his balanced approach to the Karabakh problem. “It is no
secret that many of the statements on this issue are distorted. We
are grateful to our Georgian colleagues for prompt refutations of
distorted statements and confirmation of the position of the Georgian
government,” said Sargsyan.

Ivanishvili said that during his visit to Azerbaijan in December he
also spoke about the conflict with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev. “This
is a really complicated problem and is likely to remain such also
in the future,” said Ivanishvili. “But the solution must be peaceful
and by means of negotiations.”

GEORGIAN PM REPRIMANDED JOURNALIST

23:52 17/01/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:

The Georgian PM Bidzina Ivanishvili reprimanded the journalist of the
Georgian Rustavi 2 Channel during the joint press conference with PM
Tigran Sargsyan in Yerevan.

When the journalist asked the Georgian PM on a recent report on the
Georgian foreign minister’s statement in the Lithuanian parliament
that the Karabakh issue must be resolved on the basis of Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity, Ivanishvili indignantly asked why the journalist
brings up this issue again and here. “This issue was closed after
Maya Panjikidze’s official clarification. You know the issue was
distorted but you are again asking.” Then PM Ivanishvili underlined
that Rustavi 2 had brought up this issue and covered it in the worst
way and continues to cause tension.

The Armenian PM Sargsyan thanked the Georgian PM for a balanced
position on Karabakh.

His Georgian counterpart said he talked to President Aliyev on the
conflict during his visit to Azerbaijan who said the Karabakh issue a
complicated issue and will be difficult to resolve it in the nearest
future. At the same time, the Georgian PM must be resolved through
peace talks.

DIYARBEKIR HOSTS FUNERALS OF KILLED KURDISH WOMEN

18.01.13

Tens of thousands of people participated in a grand funeral ceremony
held yesterday in the southeastern province of Diyarbakırfor three
Kurish women killed in Paris last week, Hurriyet Daily News reported.

Despite worries of possible provocations and sabotage that would turn
the ceremony into a violent protest, such fears did not materialize
during the peaceful gathering, during which the women’s coffins were
covered with the flags of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Speaking at the ceremony, Kurdish politicians, including Ahmet Turk –
an independent deputy and head of the Kurdish umbrella organization
Democratic Society Congress (DTK) – as well as Peace and Democracy
Party (BDP) co-chair Selahattin DemirtaÅ~_, denounced military
operations against Kandil mountain in northern Iraq, where PKKmilitants
are based, once again stressing that Kurdish people demand peace,
not war.

“Making peace is not possible while making war at the same time,”
DemirtaÅ~_ said.

Sakine Cansız, one of the founding members of the PKK; Fidan
Dogan, the Brussels-based Kurdistan National Congress’ (KNK) Paris
representative; and KNK Youth Union member Leyla Söylemez were
murdered in the office of the Kurdistan Information Center in central
Paris on Jan. 9. Their slaying came at a time when the government
made public dialogue measures between intelligence officials and
Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the PKK, in an effort to stop
the decades-old conflict.

There is widespread agreement that the Paris killings aimed to
halt the recent peace talks launched by the government. Many also
raised concerns that the funeral ceremony would halt the process if
“provocations and sabotage” occurred; however, the funeral did not
cast a shadow over the process.