AZERBAIJAN BETWEEN IRAN, TURKEY AND U.S.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
March 16, 2012
If Azerbaijan does not cancel the visa regime with Iran, but does it
with Turkey only, she will lose Nakhichevan, a ground connection with
which goes through Iran.
No sooner had the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated that
an attack on Iran is not yet in sight and official Washington still
prefers the diplomatic path with Iran and insists on it, than Baku
immediately responded by sending its Defense Minister Safar Abiyev
to establish good relations between Baku and Tehran.
PanARMENIAN.Net – During Abiyev’s visit to Tehran, it was declared
that Iran and Azerbaijan do not share tense relations. These statements
were made in Baku by Ali Hasanov, Head of the Azerbaijani Presidential
Administration Department on Social-Political Issues.
According to Hasanov, certain circles in Iran, fearing military
invasion from the West, are putting pressure on all the neighboring
states, particularly those that maintain good relations with Western
countries in the sphere of military security. Hasanov also managed
to remind that “Territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is not restored.
Azerbaijan is using its defense and might just as it is able and
willing. No foreign country has the right to intervene in this.
Azerbaijan is not going to attack anyone. She only intends to
strengthen her military power for the sake of her sovereignty.”
However, Tehran does not think that Azerbaijan is arming and renovating
its military airfields only to resolve the Karabakh issue.
For this purpose, as Tehran quite reasonably believes, one does not
need the great amount of weapons that Azerbaijan is buying. The more
so that at a recent meeting of foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and
Azerbaijan in Nakhichevan Ali Akbar Salehi of Iran stated that the
three countries were linked by history. “We are three states, three
bodies with one spirit. This is, of course, reflected in the agreements
among all three countries. We will continue our consultations on a
regular basis. The three countries have a combined population of more
than 170 million which creates a big market potential,” the Iranian
FM said.
All of this is, of course, good, but the parties did not agree on
simplification of the visa regime. Iran demands that in case of
cancellation of the visa regime with Turkey, Azerbaijan did the
same with Iran. If Azerbaijan does not cancel the visa regime with
Iran, but does it with Turkey only, she will lose Nakhichevan, a
ground connection with which goes through Iran. There are also the
demographic statistics. Azerbaijan has a population of 9 million,
while the population of Iran is 75 million, almost half of it –
about 35 million – being ethnic Azeris and having sibling connection
to Azerbaijan.
Through them, Iran could spread its religious and cultural influence
in Azerbaijan. One reason for the strained relations between Iran
and Azerbaijan is also the fact that President Ilham Aliyev stated
the other day that he is the president of 50 million Azerbaijanis
living throughout the world, and some Azerbaijani MPs even proposed
to call the country Northern Azerbaijan, thus emphasizing that the
presence of north implies also the existence of south.
All of this cannot but alert Tehran, and also Ankara, no matter how
often they talk about “one nation and two states”. For Turkey, by and
large, more gainful would have sounded the slogan “two nations, one
state.” If Ilham Aliyev relies on the United States in the event of
inadequate actions towards its neighbors – not only Armenia but also
Iran – then this optimism is too delusive. No one will allow Baku,
as well as the whole South Caucasus, to pursue an independent policy.
There are more serious players in the region, who gamble, also on the
Iranian oil. Iranian, and not Azerbaijani. The Caspian region has 5%
of global oil reserves, and the bulk of it is concentrated in Iran
and Turkmenistan. However, it is still unclear how much oil and gas
Azerbaijan exactly possesses. Assessments were made back in the 70s of
the past century in the USSR, and these data shouldn’t be sufficient
to parade one’s position of “the main energy supplier to the West”,
what Aliyev does.
From: A. Papazian