ALIYEV AND ERDOGAN CHAINED
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 15:07:43 – 29/03/2012
The Foreign Policy informed referring to American administration
officials that Azerbaijan allowed Israel to use its air space to
strike Iran.
It is clear that Azerbaijan could not allow Israel. At least, the
oil dollars could not have driven Ilham Aliyev out of his senses to
do something that would expose Azerbaijan as a direct target for Iran.
Even if eventually Israel brings Iran to its knees, Iran will most
probably manage to deliver a heavy blow to Azerbaijan.
But the problem will hardly get that far. The problem is that the
Israel-Azerbaijan relations are starting to worry Washington, the
Foreign Policy further reported.
Does it have anything to do with the major deal of sale of weapon of
1.5 billion dollars between Israel and Azerbaijan announced recently?
At least, it is visible that Washington dislikes the generation of
Azerbaijan’s military ambitions in the region. It is not ruled out
that the United States dislikes the growing role of Israel in the
South Caucasus.
It seems it should not worry Israel’s ally, the United States, because
the U.S. would increase its influence in the South Caucasus if Israel
established its influence there.
This option seems possible upon a quantitative view of the regional
developments and prospects. However, the regional policy of the United
States is more than simple arithmetic.
The problem is the presence of the mechanism of balance here, and the
most essential thing for the U.S. regional interests is the work of
this mechanism. The relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan may
interfere with this mechanism or make it more difficult to control.
After all, it is a misunderstanding that Israel’s policy is fully
based on the American tasks. The United States absolutely rejects the
emergence of new actors in the region as it will arouse the necessity
for new arrangements, envisaging a complicated process of review of
existing arrangements.
It is also obvious that this reality will hardly please the other
major actors in the region, namely France and Russia. It is not ruled
out that they have urged the United States to curb Israel’s attempt
to activate in the region through Azerbaijan, considering that Israel
is an ally of the United States and it would be easier for Washington
to curb or control Tel Aviv’s intentions regarding the South Caucasus.
In fact, however, the United States is not trying to curb Israel
expecting something from it but is trying to influence Azerbaijan,
bringing some tension into the Iran-Azerbaijan relations. Perhaps
it is more profitable, considering that the United States can thus
boost its influence on Baku, on the one hand, limiting Baku’s regional
ambitions which may cause problems with the balance mechanism, and on
the other hand, the United States does not request or expect anything
from Israel to have Israel expect something from Washington.
At the same time, the United States makes an insignificant but positive
gesture to Iran, showing that not only can it enter into a conflict
with Tehran but also outline common interests and reveal schemes or
treacherous deals against Iran.
In addition, interestingly this information is published in a time
when the Iranian government meets with Turkish prime minister in
Tehran to convey the content of his conversation with the U.S.
President Obama on Iran’s nuclear program.
By way of the publication on the Israeli-Azerbaijani conspiracy
Washington is trying to send a direct message to Iran and at the same
time deprive Erdogan of possible improvisations in Tehran expecting
a lucrative mediation between the United States and Iran.
From: A. Papazian