THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE RUSSIA-TURKEY-IRAN GEOPOLITICAL TRIANGLE
Eurasia Review
Sept 8 2010
In connection with the recent visits of Russian president Dmitry
Medvedev to Armenia and Azerbaijan political analyst Viktor
Nadein-Rayevsky, a senior fellow of the Russian Academy of Sciences’
Institute of World Economy and International Relations assesses
geopolitical situation in the region and gives his opinion on the
ambitions of other regional powers – Turkey and Iran.
Samir Shahbaz: What are Russia’s geopolitical interests in the South
Caucasus?
Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky: Russia views the Caucasus security as an
important issue. Consequently, we display caution on Nagorno-Karabakh
issues and try to relegate them to the concerned parties, without
dictating anything to anyone. Of course, we would like to see equitable
and well-balanced international cooperation here. External influence
should not upset the current balance because disruption could lead
to unpredictable consequences. And nobody needs a new war.
At any rate, Russia does not need such a war.
Shahbaz: Who would be interested in disrupting today’s relative
stability in the region?
Nadein-Rayevsky: To be honest, this question implies only those who
are interested in strengthening their own positions and weakening the
positions of the main regional powers, primarily Russia. I don’t want
to directly accuse any Western governments of this. But, judging by
the actions of some non-regional players, it appears that their policy
was aimed at upsetting the balance. At any rate, this is true of the
developments in Georgia. Similar attempts are possible with regard to
Azerbaijan. It appears that perfidious and dangerous information bombs
implying that Azerbaijan planned to provide bases for U.S. forces,
including those for operations against Iran, were not “dropped” by
sheer coincidence. Azerbaijan emphatically denies any actions or even
attempted actions against Iran. This is a correct stance because the
situation might otherwise get out of control.
Shahbaz: What do you think about the actions of the two other important
players bordering on the region, namely, Iran and Turkey?
Nadein-Rayevsky: Both countries have recently become visibly active
in their own way. Previously, the Turkish policy could be perceived
as a continuation and sharp point on the NATO “sword” in the eastern
Mediterranean region. But the situation has now changed. The Republic
of Turkey has long been formulating its policy in line with its
national interests. The West, which is not used to this, frequently
disapproves of various Turkish actions. In some cases, they even
mention a veritable Russian-Turkish alliance which, of course, amounts
to idle talk. Naturally, any strategic military alliance is also out
of the question. These countries have different interests and goals.
Nevertheless, there are common venues of cooperation, including the
stabilization of the Caucasus.
As far as Azerbaijanian-Turkish relations are concerned, both
countries signed a strategically important treaty prior to Dmitry
Medvedev’s visit to Yerevan. They say Turkey voices an absolutely
pro-Azerbaijanian stance on many issues, primarily Nagorno-Karabakh.
To be fair, it should be noted that the Turkish Government does not
go to extremes and acts in line with the real situation. Turkey, an
influential regional player, hopes to obtain sizeable dividends from
its active policy. Turkey wants to become a key energy hub for the
transportation of energy resources to western, central, southern and
even northern Europe. Some projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
crude oil pipeline, are currently being implemented.
Turkey also prioritizes relations with Iran because it receives
natural gas from them. This does not always go smoothly, and acts of
sabotage have taken place. Moreover, Turkey is seriously interested
in developing Iranian mineral deposits. Although the United States
reproaches and even threatens Turkey, Ankara invests in Iran. This is
happening at a time when Washington has imposed serious sanctions on
investment in Iran. Previously, it was forbidden to invest over $20
million in various energy projects in Iran. And now such restrictions
have become even more strict. Western Europe is also involved in
these sanctions. They are assuring us that such sanctions are not
directed against the Iranian nation’s well-being. But an objective
assessment of the situation shows that all this is empty talk. Of
course, sanctions take their toll. By restricting gasoline exports to
Iran, the West is dealing a serious blow against the everyday life
of Iranians. Iran which lacks refineries has to import most of its
petroleum. Just like Russian companies, Turkish companies have ignored
the ban and trade with Iranians. Although Turkey is a NATO member,
it has not joined the sanctions, continues to improve relations with
Iran and maintains permanent bilateral contacts. However, Western
conjecture about an Iranian-Turkish alliance and some kind of Islamic
solidarity are groundless. Both countries preach Shia and Sunni Islam.
However, Shia Muslims account for 8% of the Turkish population,
Shia Islam is not popular in Turkey. So, any talk of Islamic unity
is far-fetched. But economic interests are an important factor. And
Turkey is willing to facilitate Iranian oil and gas transits via its
territory, although much remains to be done in this respect.
Speaking of Iran’s interests in the Caucasus, Tehran has
repeatedly offered its services in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Iran is willing to act as a mediator in this area. Iran
maintains a sufficiently cautious policy which is non-hostile toward
Armenia. This could be expected in connection with good-neighborly
Iranian-Azerbaijanian relations. Moreover, Iran trades with Armenia,
supplying gas and building railroads together with transport monopoly
Russian Railways.
From: A. Papazian