Author: Andres-Papazian

TURKISH-ARMENIANS PROTEST FOUNDATION BOARD

Hurriyet Daily News
Nov 20 2011
Turkey

A group of Turkish-Armenians participate in a demonstration in
Istanbul. Around 100 people called for the resignation of the board
of the Uc Horan Church Foundation.

A group of Turkish-Armenians staged a demonstration after a religious
service yesterday to protest fraud allegations leveled against
foundation’s board elections.

Around 100 people called for the resignation of the board of the Uc
Horan Armenian Church Foundation, who they claimed were occupying
the post illegally.

Garo Paylan, a leading figure among the protesters, told the Hurriyet
Daily News the protest was a class action.

“The current administration labels Armenians from eastern Turkey as
‘Kurds’ and does not want them to be on the board. These foundations
belong to the whole community and the administration method of the
Armenian community should change.”

The board members of the foundation did not attend the religious
service, reportedly to avoid facing the protesters.

The Turkish-Armenian community owns 42 foundations, all of them based
in Istanbul. Uc Horan has the largest amount of revenue among them.

In May 2009, the foundation applied to the General Directorate of
Foundations to elect their administrative board. However, reports
said that after the polls the administrative board had conducted an
unlawful election for its own ends. The election was canceled and
the issue was taken to court.

The General Directorate of Foundations demanded a new election, which
was scheduled for Nov. 21 last year. However, the same administrative
board was found to have unlawfully prepared an election list and the
election was postponed again.

Paylan said the foundation board has filed complaints against 603
members of the Armenian community. “They have been resisting change for
35 years, such practice cannot survive without the state’s support,”
he added.

Sarkis Arık, from the southeastern province of Batman, said he was
sad to be labeled a Kurd by the foundation’s board. “The Armenians
of the east survived despite killings and pressure, but we are not
allowed to take responsibility in the foundation,” he said. “We have
been fighting against the system in the east and struggling against
our own community, which does not want to accept us in the west.”

Varujan Turac, a protester from the Central Anatolian province of
Sivas, said he wrote a letter to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
about the situation. “The Armenians in Istanbul do not want to include
in the foundation’s administration the Armenians from the east,
who are mostly working class, but we will not give up,” he said.

From: A. Papazian

MOODY’S CHANGES ARMENIA’S SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE

CBonds. Info

Nov 22 2011

London, 21 November 2011 — Moody’s Investors Service has today
changed to negative from stable the outlook on Armenia’s Ba2 government
foreign and local currency issuer ratings.

Today’s outlook change reflects:

(i) Risks to Armenia’s growth outlook in the coming years given the
anticipated economic slowdown in Europe and Russia, its main trading
partners, and the impact of potentially weaker commodity prices for
the country’s mining and metals industries.

(ii) Concerns about the deterioration of Armenia’s debt metrics and
external position following the 2009 recession and its impact on the
country’s shock-absorption capacity as it enters another period of
heightened economic uncertainty.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody’s decision to change the outlook on Armenia’s sovereign
ratings to negative is primarily driven by the country’s ongoing
economic vulnerability to the weaker growth prospects in Europe
and Russia, which together account for 58% of Armenia’s export
market. In particular, Armenia’s reliance on exports to, as well as
remittances and foreign direct investment from, Russia poses risks to
its external position. In addition, potentially lower commodity prices
could further affect the Armenian economy as exports are concentrated
on mining, precious stones and metals (representing 73% of exports
in 2010). Although Moody’s currently still expects moderate growth
in the next two years, the rating agency believes that the downside
risks are significant given the weak global economic growth outlook.

The second driver of the outlook change is the risk to Armenia’s
shock-absorption capacity as the country enters another economically
challenging period with weakened debt metrics and a more vulnerable
external position. Moody’s notes that the country is now faced with
a large current account deficit (estimated to be 11% GDP in 2011)
and a government external debt ratio that has doubled to 35% in 2011
from 14% of GDP in 2008. Its total debt burden in relation of GDP is
now 39% compared with 16% in 2008.

Despite the change in outlook, Moody’s notes the government’s
commitment to fiscal consolidation, as illustrated by the measures
contained in the draft 2012 budget law which are aimed at reducing the
general government deficit to 3.1% of GDP next year. These measures are
in addition to the government’s efforts to enhance the efficiency of
tax collection. The impact of such measures however will remain unclear
for some time and the implementation risks to the fiscal consolidation
plan are significant, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding
Armenia’s growth prospects. As discussed above, the expecteed economic
slowdown in Europe and Russia poses risks to Armenia’s growth outlook.

Concurrent with this action, we have revised to negative the outlook
on the Ba3 country ceiling for foreign-currency deposits. At the same
time, the country ceiling for local-currency debt was downgraded
to Baa1 from A3, bringing it in line with the country ceiling for
local-currency deposits, which was affirmed at Baa1. The country
ceiling for foreign-currency debt was affirmed at Baa3 and its outlook
remains stable.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Although unlikely in the short-to-medium term, Moody’s would consider
changing the rating outlook on Armenia back to stable in the event of a
dissipation of the risks posed by the country’s external vulnerability
to low growth prospects among its main trading partners.

Moody’s would consider downgrading Armenia’s sovereign ratings in
the event of (i) a failure to achieve its fiscal deficits reduction
plan; and/or (ii) a continued large current account deficit caused
by prolonged weakness in commodity prices and/or remittances; and/or
(iii) a decline in FDIs, thereby eroding the sustainability of the
country’s external position.

From: A. Papazian

C-DAC OPENS CENTRE IN ARMENIA

Indian Express

Nov 21 2011

Pune: The Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) has
launched the India-Armenia Centre of Excellence in Information and
Communication Technology at Yerevan, Armenia.

Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said the centre will give
fresh impetus to IT research and educational programmes. Sachin Pilot,
Minister of State for Communications and IT, who was present at the
event said, “India is ready to share its 20 years of experience in
the IT sector with Armenia. Our assistance to Armenia will be not
financial but in the form of scientific potential.” The centre has
been equipped with the PARAM supercomputer. The centre is a joint
initiative between the Indian and Armenian governments. Tigran Davtyan,
minister of economy, Armenia, said the Indian and Armenian governments
have allocated over $200 million towards the establishment of the
centre. The centre’s objective is to expand cooperation in the field
of information technology, he added.

From: A. Papazian

BRITISH ANALYST CALLS ON TURKEY TO RECOGNIZE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 21, 2011 – 16:20 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Turkey must recognize the Armenian Genocide,
distinguished British analyst Robert Fisk said, Etha reports.

Fisk made a report on the Armenian Genocide, assassination of Agos
editor-in-chief Hrant Dink, and problems related to human rights
situation in Turkey.

Robert Fisk noted that Turkish media are state-controlled stressing
the necessity to remove article 301 from Turkish Penal Code, which
stipulates penalties for “insulting the Turkish nation.”

Under the aforesaid article proceedings have been launched against
famous Turkish journalists and academics, including Turkish-Armenian
journalist Hrant Dink.

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIA TO APPLY CIRCULAR MIGRATION PRINCIPLE

Tert.am
21.11.11

In mentioning circular migration one should mention the migration
background, and Armenia should integrate in it as soon as possible.

“Emigration trends can still be observed, but not on a large-scale,”
Gagik Yeganyan, Head of the Migration Service of Armenia, said at a
conference on circular labor migration in Yerevan, Nov. 21.

Referring to independent experts, he said that emigrants numbered 1.2m
to 1.3m in 1991-2007. Specifically, massive emigration was registered
1991 to 2001 ~V emigrants numbered 1.1m. Also, a total of 150,000
emigrants were registered 2002 to 2007.

Most of the emigrants were labor migrants. Most of them left for Russia
because they had no jobs or prospects in Armenia. Eight per cent of
them left for Ukraine and Belarus, 10% to the United States and 7%
to other states.

Money transfers from Russia to Armenia have shown an annual increase
of 20% since 2001. In 2007, money transfers amounted to $1.63bn. This
January-September, they showed a 23% increase,” Yeganyan said.

According to him, circular labor migration is an EU-authored concept,
its aim being to facilitate labor migrants’ entry to the countries
and getting benefits from it.

Yeganyan is sure that, in the case of circular labor migration,
migrants will direct funds to their native lands and gain working
experience.

The EU member-states, which developed the circular migration
concept, have the necessary laws and agreements, which are grounds
for optimism over the application of this concept in Armenia. “In
2010, we developed a migration policy concept which envisages the
application of circular migration in Armenia. We are ready to sign
relevant bilateral agreements,” Yeganyan said.

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIA’S ARMAVIA TO BUY THREE MORE SUKHOI SUPERJET IN 2012

/ARKA/
NOVEMBER 21, 2011
YEREVAN

YEREVAN, November 21. /ARKA/. CEO of Armenia’s national air carrier,
Armavia, Mikhail Baghdasarov, told Prime News that his company plans
to conclude a firm contract for the delivery of three Sukhoi Superjet
100 in 2012.

Speaking at a news conference today Baghdasarov said the second Sukhoi
Superjet will be delivered before the end of this year, following
which the contract will be signed for delivery of three more planes.

Armavia was the first company to start commercial operation of new
short-haul airliner.

Bagdasarov said the operation of the plane has revealed some problems
that need to be eliminated.

Armavia National Air Company was established in 1996. The company meets
IATA international requirements. Armavia operates over 100 flights
a day to more than 40 destinations in 20 countries. It possesses 11
aircrafts – a320-3, a319-3, CRJ-200, Yak-42-VIP and Il-86 and Superjet
-100.

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIAN SOCIOLOGIST CONSIDERS RULING PARTY ‘TOP BRAND’

Tert.am
22.11.11

The ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is a top brand
on Armenia’s political market, according to Aharon Adibekyan,
a sociologist.

At a news conference on Tuesday, the expert characterized the
Republican as a political force acting on behalf of “state and legal
powers”.

As for the other players on the political arena – the
Prosperous Armenia party (PAP), the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaksutyun (ARF-D), Rule of Law, and the Armenian
National Congress (ANC) – he noted that each of them has got a specific
role in a specific domain.

“The PAP seems to have monopolized the economic sector. The ARF-D
has taken charge of supranational issues, i.e. the Armenian Cause,
while the ANC still has to position itself on the market,” he said,
adding that the alliance though managed to adopt the posture of an
opposition force, its activities still remain vague.

Speaking of Heritage, another opposition force, Adibekyan said the
party seeks to have its own place on the market, relying on its
leader’s brand.

He was very uncertain about the party’s chances to win election
in 2012.

“I don’t know whether it will be lucky enough to win,” he said.

Speaking further of the political palette in the next parliament,
he said none of the parties will be a majority force.

The RPA, according to him, will receive 35% of votes in the
proportional ballot and 25% – in the majority ballot. The sociologist
expects the other coalition partners, PAP and Rule of Law, to share
the remaining seats.

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIAN EXPERTS: AZERBAIJAN NOT READY FOR WAR

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 22, 2011 – 14:13 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenian political analyst Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan
does not forecast resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh
conflict zone.

“Azerbaijan knows that any attempt to resolve the conflict by the use
of force is doomed to fail, that is why Baku refrains from launching
military operations,” the exert said.

For his part, expert Artsrun Hovhannisyan noted that though resumption
of war by Azerbaijan is currently unrealistic, it should not be ruled
out. According to him, Azerbaijan is not ready for war yet.

From: A. Papazian

DE-CONSTRUCTION: BUILDING INDUSTRY DOWN 25 PERCENT; ECONOMIC ACTIVITY DROPS 18 PERCENT FROM SEPTEMBER
NAZIK ARMENAKYAN

ArmeniaNow
22.11.11 | 13:50

By Sara Khojoyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

According to the National Statistics Service of Armenia, the country’s
economic activity was 18 percent less in October than in September.

The main reason of the decline was the 25-percent drop in construction
(in the first 10 months of this year, compared to last).

Economist Ara Nranyan, lawmaker from the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (ARF, Dashnaktsutyun) parliamentary faction, says that
the decline in the construction sector is, in fact, determined by
the ongoing financial crisis.

“Even though the Government presents the decline of construction
sector as a result of the economy’s diversification, I do not think
that the industry actually develops,” Nranyan says.

According to Nranyan, the executive authorities of Armenia have started
paying less attention to the construction sector, even reducing the
allotment of funds designated for the industry next year.

In 2012, four billion drams (about $10 million) will be allotted to
apartment construction, even though before that more than 20 billion
drams (about $52 million) was allotted; and as for the general
construction – 12 billion drams (about $31 million) instead of the
previous 30 billion drams (about $78 million).

“Construction is a system creating trend of the economy, and the
Government, according to us, has taken a wrong course. Instead of
promoting demand and creating corresponding mechanisms for it, the
Government has created preferential terms for construction companies
to finish their work,” Nranyan says.

However, there is a low demand for new apartments and not only
because the population of Armenia (who inherited homes from the Soviet
system) does not need apartments. The problem, according to the ARF
representative, is the absence of a special social welfare oriented
program, which would give people with low incomes an opportunity to
buy apartments.

One such program was Affordable Housing for Young Families initiated
by the Government three years ago. Under the program only 580 young
families have been granted preferential mortgage loans.

From: A. Papazian

STRATEGIC “LAKE”: CASPIAN WORKING GROUP DEBATE IMPORTANT FOR ARMENIA TOO
By Aris Ghazinyan

ArmeniaNow
22.11.11 | 13:52

Map:

Armenia is not represented at the Tuesday-Wednesday working group
in Kazakhstan, where the legal status of the Caspian Sea is being
discussed, but the issue is of great significance to Hayastan.

The issue of the Caspian basin is important to Armenia, as it
determines the volume of Azerbaijan’s oil-gas recourses. In accordance
with Heydar Aliyev’s “Oil Strategy” the development of Azerbaijan
is conditioned by the development of its oil industry. In the 1990s,
the Azeri leadership promised to turn Azerbaijan into “Kuwait of the
21st century”.

Baku authorities say the country’s oil industry would pump enough
money into the war machine to settle the Karabakh issue through
military might.

Prior to the session (attended by the host, Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia,
Azerbaijan) Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Ryabkov stated:
“The legal status of the Caspian is a rather complicated issue,
considering the fact that throughout the history of our state it has
been regulated by Soviet-Iranian agreements.”

Before the collapse of the USSR the Caspian Sea was “Soviet-Iranian
inner basin” and all its oil and gas deposits were used in compliance
with bilateral agreements signed between Moscow and Tehran in the
first half of the 20th century. However, the collapse of the USSR
lead to the emergence of new states along the basin’s perimeter,
and now besides Tehran and Moscow there are three others – Astana,
Ashkhabad and Baku – claming their rights to the deposits and the
water area in general.

The main matter of dispute is the Caspian’s political status; some
geographic truths are cardinally reconsidered out of political
priorities. For example, from the geographic viewpoint Armenia,
Georgia and Azerbaijan are located in Asia; however, politically they
are part of Europe and are members of the European Council.

>From the perspective of classical geography, the Caspian is a lake
(because it has no direct access to the World oceans), however its
political status is a matter of constant disputes among the five
coastal countries.

The essence of the dispute is as follows: if the water basin is
recognized as a “lake”, concepts of International Marine Rights such as
“exclusive economic zone”, “continental offshore area”, and others,
will no more be applicable.

Many oil and gas deposits are exploited in the Caspian Sea. Oil
resources there make 10 billion tons; in total oil and gas reserves
make an estimated 18-20 billion tons. It is this wealth that the
countries are fighting for and, naturally, fierce arguments ensue.

Azeri political analyst Zardusht Alizade says: “We have a matter
of discord with Turkmenistan – the deposit Kyapaz [mountain]. It’s
closer to the border of Turkmenistan, but Azerbaijan claims its border
starts not from the coastline but the islands that are farther away,
and this causes controversies.”

Azerbaijan and Iran have some issues too. Alizade stresses in this
connection: “Iran believes that the division of the Caspian should
be done by sectors, rather than by Turkmenistan’s border check-point
line. In that case, Iran’s sector increases from 13 to 20 percent and
wedges in the sector that was believed to be Azeri. And Azerbaijan
disagrees.”

The peculiarity of the situation is in the fact that as opposed to
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia and Iran, which possess extensive
reserves of fuel deposits, in case with Azerbaijan the main resources
from the coastline were used and almost exhausted during Soviet times.

Despite the fact that a decade ago by official estimates of Natik
Aliyev, president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, the Azeri
Caspian sector had 4-10 billion tons of oil, independent experts
later stressed that the real reserves of oil there were ten times
less. And besides, until the water basin’s status is defined, it is
not clear what exactly the so-called “Azeri sector of the Caspian” is.

Prior to the negotiations Azeri newspaper Echo wrote: “In the
issue of determining the Caspian’s legal status, Russia did not
support Azerbaijan, but only settled its issues with Kazakhstan
and Azerbaijan. Russia does not have lines of contact with Iran and
Turkmenistan, hence Azerbaijan is now alone against Iran.”

Experts predict that if Azerbaijan fails to protect its interests
related to the status of the Caspian Sea, it will exhaust its oil
resources in a few years’ time and will have no grounds to continue
talking about its economic superiority over Armenia.

From: A. Papazian