GREATER EU ROLE IN KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION ‘DESIRABLE’
news.az
Nov 22 2011
Azerbaijan
A wider role for the EU in resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict
over Karabakh is desirable, a UK-based analyst has said.
This is one of the ideas proposed by Dennis Sammut, head of the LINKS
think-tank, in a paper for Italy’s International Affairs Institute
entitled “After Kazan, a Defining Moment for the OSCE Minsk Process”.
“The peace process has not collapsed but has been damaged” following
the failure of the summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents,
mediated by Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev in June in the city
of Kazan, Sammut writes.
The peace process is led by the OSCE Minsk Group, the international
body mediating a solution to the conflict, which is co-chaired by
Russia, the USA and France.
Sammut proposes a range of measures to improve the peace process,
including: greater scrutiny of the negotiating process led by the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairs; consolidation of the ceasefire; a review of
the composition of the Minsk Group; the involvement in negotiations of
Armenians living in Karabakh and displaced Azerbaijanis of Karabakh;
consideration of the conflict within the wider security context
of the former Soviet Union and Europe; and a wider role for the
European Union.
“The Minsk Group co-chairs have to somehow find a way of taking the
negotiations forward,” Sammut says.
“For long, many observers have considered that the way the
negotiations were evolving was too secretive. There is a need for
greater transparency and at this juncture the co-chairs need to be
courageous. With or without the acquiescence of the parties, they
need to provide a clearer picture to the public of what has been
discussed and agreed…
“The peace process must be opened up to greater scrutiny, and the sides
– Armenia and Azerbaijan – as well as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs,
need to consider if there are other ways in which the peace process
can be pursued in future.”
On the need to consolidate the ceasefire along the contact line
separating Armenian and Azerbaijani troops, Sammut says: “The delays
in achieving progress in negotiations have inevitably increased the
tension on the line of contact. The international community needs to
put its foot down and push for a larger and more permanent observation
regime.”
He notes that the “Minsk Group has to play a delicate balancing act”
between strengthening the ceasefire and not being distracted from their
primary objective and mandate of finding a solution to the conflict.
On the wider security context of the conflict, Sammut says: “It
is doubtful that any of these conflicts can be solved unless the
solution is consolidated in a wider framework that addresses a number
of security concerns, many of which involve Russia, and the perception
of Russia in the region.”
A Russian proposal for a European Security Treaty is one context
in which the conflict could be considered, while others are the
Caucasus Security and Cooperation Platform proposed by Turkey or
a Caucasus Security and Cooperation Conference, modelled on the
original Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe, backed
by the European Parliament.
Discussing the composition of the Minsk Group, Dennis Sammut calls for
review of “the role of Russia that has emerged as primus inter pares in
the mediation process; and the involvement in negotiations of Armenians
living in Karabakh, organized in the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh republic
(NKR), and displaced Azerbaijanis of Karabakh”.
Saying that Armenia would most probably resist Turkey’s expressed
wish to become a fourth co-chair of the Minsk Group, Sammut notes
that the possibility of the EU replacing France as a co-chair has
been more widely discussed.
“This suggestion has been staunchly resisted by French diplomacy so
far, due more to domestic French reasons linked to the large Armenian
diaspora, than to wider international considerations.”
On the role of the EU in the Karabakh peace process more generally,
Sammut says:
“Whilst the option that the EU may replace France as a Minsk Group
co-chair is not on the agenda for the moment, a wider EU role is not
only desirable but in some ways inevitable now. The new EU special
representative for the South Caucasus, Philippe Lefort, has a clear
mandate to engage with the conflict and peace process.”
“Some commentators have recently dismissed the EU’s role in the South
Caucasus, saying that the union has interests, but not leverage. This
is only true if one accepts a narrow view of the region, its problems
and its potential,” Sammut argues.
“Whilst Europe has not yet fully developed its material sources of
leverage in the region, its engagement with the ideational factors,
particularly the aspirations of the elites and the youth throughout
the region, makes it a much more important player than first meets
the eye. This is even more so in the Karabakh context.
“European soft power is not a quaint oddity in the South Caucasus,
but a sharp instrument of diplomacy. As the EU special representative
argued in recent remarks at the European Parliament: in the region,
the European Union is perceived as the partner of choice for
modernization.”
In conclusion, Sammut says: “If the long expected breakthrough does
happen, then it is likely that the EU will be a key player in the
implementation of any peace deal: through peacekeeping, postconflict
rehabilitation and, overall, through the strengthening of democratic
processes and the rule of law, that are so essential if a peace
settlement is to succeed. If, on the other hand, the Minsk process
falters and requires re-designing, then the EU will undoubtedly be
part of any new format.”
Noting that inaction is not an option, he writes: “The only option
that the international community has is to persist and bolster its
efforts for the peaceful solution of this conflict, based on the
understanding that this will be a win-win situation for all sides.”
From: A. Papazian