Turkey. Will demographic change become a major policy factor?

The latest presented by Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet Bahceli of the report According to the report, the total birth rate in Turkey decreased from 2.38 in 2001 to 1.44 in 2025. For the last 9 years, the birth rate has been kept below the level of 2.10 children per woman, which is considered sufficient for the minimum reproduction of the population.

Turkey’s population increased from 70.6 million in 2007 to 86.1 million in 2025, but the annual population growth rate has declined to one of the lowest levels in history, amounting to only 1.1 thousand people in 2023 (5 thousand in 2025).

Among the most remarkable points of the report were the one-time, zero-interest housing loans and long-term car loans offered to families with 3 or more children. These families were also offered a 50 percent discount on electricity, natural gas, water, and internet bills. It was proposed to gradually reduce the income tax rates of working mothers and fathers, depending on the number of children, and to completely cancel these deductions in the case of families with 3 or more children. It is also proposed to increase the paid maternity leave of mothers working in the state system to 12 months for each child, and to two months for fathers.

In addition, it is planned to gradually reduce the age limit for mothers’ retirement and the necessary insurance length of service, again depending on the number of children.

It is also planned to provide free diapers and baby food to families in need, as well as to promote flexible and remote work formats for mothers. In addition, it is proposed to allocate an apartment to those young married couples who want to move from the city to rural areas, where living conditions will be closer to urban standards.

The concern of the nationalists (and not only them) is obviously well-founded. Turkey’s population is aging at such a pace that it is beginning to change the economic and social prospects of the country. writes The Nordic Monitor. The median age will reach 34.9 in 2025, up from 34.4 last year and around 28 in 2007. New data recently published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) indicate that these changes are mainly due to a steady decline in the birth rate, coupled with a decline in the death rate.

Moreover, the population of Turkey is still significantly younger than the residents of the European Union countries. The average age in the EU in 2025 was 44.9 years, compared to 34.9 years in Turkey. Citizens aged 65 and over make up 22% of the EU population, which is twice as much as in Turkey (11.1%). However, Turkey is moving in the same direction, and rather quickly. In 2007, children under the age of 14 made up 26.4% of its population, and in 2025 their share was reduced to 20.4%.

Over the same period, the share of people aged 65 and over increased from 7.1% to 11.1%. The demographic load factor, which shows how many citizens aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age (15-64 years), increased from 15.5 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2025. If current trends continue, this figure could reach 19.5 in 2030, 26.5 in 2040, and 45.5 in 2060.

According to the main forecast, if the current demographic trends are maintained, the population will reach 93.8 million by 2050, after which it will begin to decrease and will fall below 77 million by 2100. Thus, the immediate problem is not the reduction of population size itself, but the combination of slowing growth rates and rapid aging.

The older population is more in the north and the younger in the south and southeast, including the Kurdish regions, which may entail ethnopolitical risks. It is interesting that the “demographic” report was presented by the nationalist party itself, whose leader has previously made famous initiatives to solve the Kurdish issue.

Thus, in 2025, Sinop on the Black Sea had the highest average age of 44 years, followed by the northern provinces of Giresun (43.5 years) and Kastamonu (43.3 years).

Meanwhile, the average age of the population in southern Şanlıurfa remained the lowest at 21.8 years, in neighboring Şırnak at 23.3 years and in Siirt at 25 years. This gap shows that in some northern regions of the country demographic aging has already reached a higher level than in the younger south and southeast.

According to TurkStat forecasts, the period of relatively favorable ratio of working population to dependents (demographic load) will end around 2030. According to the same forecasts, the average age at that time will be 37.1 years, after 10 years, in 2040, it will reach 41.4, and in 2060, it will reach 48 years.

so shortens the period during which Turkey can use the large potential of its working population to expand its economic advantages before the aging population begins to put more pressure on public finances.

As the number of pensioners increases relative to the number of working-age citizens, social security and healthcare systems will face an increasing burden.. As the proportion of older adults increases, spending priorities will shift toward chronic disease treatment, rehabilitation, and long-term care. The European Union is already on that path.

Demographic aging also affects the compulsory military service system in Turkey․ the smaller the generation of young men, the smaller the reserve from which citizens can be drafted. This does not necessarily mean a reduction in the size of the army, as the importance of professional personnel, technology and unmanned systems is increasing, which is fully in line with modern trends.

Almost the opposite trend is observed in the field of education. For decades, new schools, universities and other educational institutions have been built in the country, often to the detriment of the quality of education. Falling birth rates will gradually reduce the number of schoolchildren and potential students known for their libertarian sentiments (especially in large megacities). This may lead to the need to consolidate schools in economically depressed regions, as well as to review the requirements for teachers and educational institutions.

Economic factors play an equally important (though not absolute) role in the birth rate, which is also paid attention to by the relevant structures of the United Nations. A shrinking workforce could make economic growth increasingly dependent on increased productivity: Turkey still has a demographic advantage over most EU countries, but the structural gap is narrowing as the birth rate remains significantly below the population reproduction rate.

It can be assumed that the demographic problem, one way or another, will come to the public’s attention as the next election cycle of 2028 approaches, which, it is not excluded, will become extraordinary. The partners of the “Justice and Development” party, which is part of the ruling coalition, have perhaps made a competent political-technological step with their report and the proposals contained in it.

STANISLAV To Kotyolkin

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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