Trump’s ultimatums, Iran’s responses and new uncertainties around TRIPP

The situation in the Middle East has reached a dangerous stage of escalation, where the events of the past days threaten to finally destroy the diplomatic agreements reached on June 17.

The ongoing military clashes between the US and Iran, expressed by a limited but painful chain of strikes, prove that the “fragile status quo” formed between the parties does not cope with regional challenges. US President Donald Trump threatens to attack Iranian infrastructure if Tehran does not negotiate with Washington.

“I’ll leave the energy targets for last, but eventually we’ll hit the energy infrastructure,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News, adding that next week will be very bad for them, because next week it’s the power plants’ turn, and next week it’s the bridges’ turn. The US president threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants “if they don’t sit around the table and negotiate”.

On the instructions of Trump, the United States restored the blockade of Iranian ports and carried out airstrikes on the territory of the country for the fifth night in a row.

According to Iranian state media, the port city of Bandar Abbas, as well as the southwestern cities of Howeizeh and the southern cities of Sirik, were hit. “More than 20 US Navy warships and hundreds of warplanes are operating in the Middle East,” the US Army’s Central Command informed.

The Central Command reported that the seven-hour long strikes on Iran were concluded: fighter jets, drones and warships were used against dozens of Iranian military targets and coastal facilities.

In parallel, the US allies in the region were once again the target of Iran, and the IRPC declares that the strait will remain closed “until the end of America’s misdeeds”.

According to the Iranian state media, the Iranian armed forces have announced that they have targeted the American facilities located in the Jordanian Azraq Air Base for the second time.

Jordan reported that it had shot down three Iranian ballistic missiles that invaded the country’s territory. The Kuwaiti army, for its part, has announced that it is trying to push back the Iranian drones. American military facilities were also targeted in Bahrain, an air alert was declared. It is announced from Tehran that traffic through the strait will be cleared “when stability and tranquility are restored”.

It should be recalled that US President Donald Trump announced on July 10 that the US agreed to negotiate with Iran, after Tehran requested to continue the negotiations. Trump added that the ceasefire between the two countries “has ended”. “Iran has asked us to continue the “negotiations”. We agreed to do this, but the United States has clearly stated that the ceasefire is over,” President Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

And even earlier than that, he announced that he no longer sees the point of continuing negotiations with Tehran, after the skirmishes between the USA and Iran. Describing the Iranian authorities as “insidious” and “crazy”, the US president claimed that the cease-fire reached with Tehran has already ended.

Russian analyst Vladimir Yevseyev considers that the situation in the Middle East has reached such a geopolitical milestone, where the boundaries of the diplomatic and military tools have become dangerously uncertain, and the dynamics of the conflict have gone beyond the scope of manageability.

According to him, the parties, having a low level of trust in each other, understanding each other’s intentions, try to preserve the positional advantage with minimal losses.

According to Yevseyev, in this stalemate, where each new strike is equivalent to the next larger escalation, no visible way out, stable settlement is indicated, because the crisis of confidence and the nature of one’s own agendas do not provide an opportunity to get out of the intensifying cycle of mutual threats.

He believes that this chain of escalation will most likely maintain its inertia until one of the parties faces an internal socio-economic or strategic situation that will force the cessation of hostilities.

“Currently, neither Washington nor Tehran is ready to back down at the expense of their reputation, which means that in the coming weeks we will witness a similar situation, where the intensity of strikes will vary depending on local tactical successes, and the actual cessation of the conflict will depend not on the efforts of the mediators, but on the decisions of the parties. Maybe the pre-election situation in the USA will also reflect on the dynamics of the situation, reflecting on the decisions made by Tehran and Washington.” 168.amYevseev said in an interview with

It is noteworthy that, parallel to all this, the Armenian government will approve the law on the ratification of the framework agreement on strategic cooperation between Armenia and the United States on TRIPP.

After the approval of the government, it will be discussed in the Constitutional Court in order to determine the constitutionality of the agreement, and then it will be submitted to the parliament for ratification.

Let’s remind that this TRIPP agreement was initialed during the US Secretary of State’s short visit to Yerevan, and the final signing took place on June 4.

The Armenian side is taking interested steps to implement the project as soon as possible, but the geopolitical and military situation in the immediate vicinity of Armenia does not calm down with the participation of the USA, directly affecting the pace of implementation of TRIPP, as well as the decisions of the USA. Therefore, the ongoing military-political escalation in the neighborhood deepens the uncertainties regarding the implementation of the TRIPP project.

By the way, the British The Guardian wrote that Konstantin Sokolov will be appointed the head of the TRIPP trade project passing through Armenia. “Russian-born, Chicago-based private equity investor Konstantin Sokolov will chair the State Department’s new venture fund, which will oversee more than $200 million in investment in the Central Asian trade corridor, including investments in transportation, energy infrastructure and key minerals,” the authoritative newspaper wrote, adding that Sokolov has not previously held government positions.

The newspaper reminded that Sokolov is one of the 36 donors who allocated funds for the renovation of the luxurious ballroom of the White House of US President Donald Trump. This project is estimated at 350 million dollars. The amount of Konstantin Sokolov’s donation is not known, the latter refused The Guardian’s request for an interview.

It should also be noted that Sokolov is known in Armenia as the co-owner of Viva Armenia, one of the largest communication operators in Armenia. “Viva Armenia” recently acquired the shares of another operator, “RosTelecom”.

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