Inflation is at a higher level than the target, making 4.2%. CB:

In the second quarter of 2026, 12-month inflation continued to be above target, standing at 4.2% in May. This was mentioned in the Central Bureau of Investigation message.

During that time, the 12-month normal inflation increased, making 5.1%. In the second quarter of 2026, amid geopolitical uncertainty and prolonged high energy prices, demand in the global economy continued to weaken and its outlook worsened.

At the same time, the risks of a higher trajectory for the US public debt, and thus a prolonged maintenance at high levels of long-term interest rates, have increased.

The risks of medium-term growth and weakening of demand in other main partner countries of Armenia are more objective. In particular, in the Eurozone and Russia, an economic recession was recorded in the first quarter, and the structural problems are gradually deepening, contributing to the weakening of growth capacities in these economies as well.

At the same time, in the conditions of the relative stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, a certain decrease in the prices of energy carriers is observed, however, the high uncertainty about the perspective of the prices of raw materials and food products remains.

In this context, given the high uncertainty surrounding the developments in the inflationary environment, the risks of the central banks of the leading countries maintaining the existing policy interest rates for a long time or increasing them remain.

—