Problems arising in individual export markets may lead to a decrease in income in the RA economy, as well as the formation of an excess supply of individual products, containing mainly deflationary risks. This is reported by the Central Bank of RA.
In the conditions of current macroeconomic developments, RA financial market participants on average expect that the Central Bank will maintain the current level of the interest rate for a little longer, reducing the policy interest rate to 6.25% in the medium term horizon.
In the conditions of the discussed risks and existing uncertainties, on the one hand, the CB Board considered type A scenarios related to the possible increase in global neutral interest rates, the formation of excess demand conditions in the domestic economy and the risks of acceleration of inflationary expectations, which require a higher policy interest rate path compared to market expectations.
On the other hand, the Council discussed B-type scenarios related to the prospect of global economic growth slowdown, the formation of deflationary risks as a result of problems in individual export directions, and the fundamental reduction of the risk premium of the RA economy, which imply a lower policy interest rate path compared to market expectations.
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