168: Is the return of Iran a global game? How will the US-Iran deal be affected?

US President Donald Trump has announced that Washington and Tehran have reached a framework agreement that will stop hostilities in the Middle East, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade of Iranian ports.

“The agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran is ready,” Trump wrote on his social network page, continuing in the next post that “this magnificent agreement will bring peace and security to the entire region.” Iran’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Kazem Gharibabdi confirmed the information about the agreement early in the morning, detailing that “an immediate and permanent cease-fire is declared on all fronts of the war, including Lebanon.” Iran’s Mehr agency has published the draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US, which consists of 14 points and refers to regional security, economic cooperation and the regulation of bilateral relations.

According to the document, the parties plan to immediately and permanently stop hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon. At the same time, the US undertakes not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic. The memorandum envisages the complete lifting of the naval blockade against Iran within 30 days, as well as the withdrawal of American troops from the regions close to Iran’s borders. The document also provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil. According to the draft, the US and its allies must present a program for the reconstruction of Iran’s infrastructure, in the amount of 300 billion dollars. In addition, a 60-day negotiation process is planned in order to reach a final agreement.

Iran, for its part, undertakes not to produce nuclear weapons. At the same time, the USA should not impose new sanctions during the negotiations and should not expand its military presence in the region. The document also states that Iran’s frozen assets of 24 billion dollars should be unblocked, a mechanism for monitoring the implementation of the agreement should be created, and the final agreement should be approved by the appropriate resolution of the UN Security Council. It said final talks would not begin until a number of preconditions were met, including the unblocking of at least half of Iran’s frozen assets, the suspension of oil sanctions and the lifting of the maritime blockade.

A high-ranking US official has denied the claims of the Iranian side that Tehran will receive billions of dollars in frozen funds before the start of negotiations on the final agreement, calling the formulation a “distortion of reality”. Speaking to Axios, the official denied reports that Iran would get unconditional access to $12 billion in blocked assets before the 60-day negotiation phase begins.

“This is completely untrue,” the official said.

“This is a pay-for-performance deal, and no frozen funds will be unfrozen until the Iranians fulfill their commitments.”

Iranian officials, for their part, have said that final negotiations will begin only after key commitments are met, including the release of some frozen assets and the lifting of the naval blockade.

The document has not been officially published, but the leaks show that both conflicting parties present the same draft document in accordance with their own political interests and audience. The actual text of the document (14 points) probably exists, but Iran emphasizes what the US is “obliged to do”, and the US emphasizes that Iran will receive all of this “only after fulfilling its demands”. However, international leaders are already welcoming the achievement of a framework agreement between the United States and Iran. London, Paris, Berlin and Rome expressed their willingness to ease some sanctions against Tehran in a joint statement.

Other countries and centers also made statements. Against this background, however, Israel declares that Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz noted. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have a clear policy that the Israel Defense Forces will remain in the security zones of Lebanon, Syria and Gaza indefinitely to protect the borders and Israeli communities from jihadist elements.”

The framework agreement to be signed between Washington and Tehran, despite the different interpretations at the moment, claims to change the logic of global politics. According to Donald Trump, this “great historical deal” not only lays the foundation for the new security architecture of the Middle East, but can directly affect the neighboring regions, particularly the South Caucasus. The quick reaction of major Western capitals – London, Paris, Berlin and Rome – and the willingness to ease sanctions show that the European superpowers have huge economic needs. The return of Iranian oil to the world market and the planned unblocking of transportation routes can significantly reduce the prices of energy carriers, giving a big boost to the world economy. However, according to experts, the weakest link of this agreement remains Israel’s tough position.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz’s statement that their troops will not leave southern Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria indicates that the Washington-Tehran agreement is still not strong, and a complete regional consensus has not been achieved. Israel views the diplomatic game between Washington and Tehran as an existential threat to its security, which means that even if the document is signed in Geneva on June 19, the risk of renewed military clashes will remain extremely high. The possible recovery of US-Iran relations and the gradual lifting of sanctions also radically change the geo-economic map of the South Caucasus.

Coming out of isolation, Iran, with its huge economic potential, will naturally look for stable and safe transit routes to Europe through Armenia. In this context, Iran may also be interested in the TRIPP project.

All of this is directly related to Armenia, because the de-encirclement agenda around Armenia is in the stage of active discussions and agreements, and at this very stage, the stabilization of the situation around Tehran significantly increases the latter’s weight in the South Caucasus as well.

The implementation of the US-Iran framework agreement will be a cornerstone for strengthening Tehran’s position, returning it from international isolation to influential global political and economic platforms, which will be especially visible due to the suspension of oil sanctions in the energy market and the legal legitimization of regional hubs.

This global geopolitical transformation will be directly projected on the South Caucasus, where Tehran, freed from Western pressure, will pursue a much more decisive policy, preventing the establishment of absolute hegemony of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem in the region. For Armenia, the possible rise of Iran can create various opportunities. It is able, most importantly, to balance the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region, which will allow Yerevan to conduct a more independent foreign policy. At the same time, this is not only an economic opportunity for Armenia, but also a geopolitical challenge, as Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel will try to advance their own agendas with even greater intensity against this background. Armenia’s success in this possible configuration around Iran will depend on the extent to which Yerevan will be able to use Iran’s emerging potential.

—