Is the Kremlin moving to practical warnings? What is expected of the Armenian business?

For two days, it has been actively discussed in the Armenian mass media that a large batch of “Jermuk” was blocked in Russia, violations were found. The other day, it became known that the state marking system “Honest Mark” (“Честный знак”) suspended the sale of the batch of Armenian “Jermuk” mineral water in offline and online stores.

As Revaz Yusupov, deputy general director of the Center for the Development of Prospective Technologies, told RBC, there were 338,000 bottles in circulation, which are now blocked until the end of the inspection.

The reason for the suspension of circulation was the letter of “Rospotrebnadzor”, in which the agency pointed out the need to “immediately take measures to prevent possible harm to the lives and health of the citizens of the Russian Federation”. The reason for the blocking was “violations of mandatory requirements”. 2026 was banned. February 17 and 2026 products with production dates of March 5.

The SATM referred to this information, noting that the inspection body has not yet received any official information, a letter, from the relevant bodies of the Russian Federation, “Rospotrebnadzor” or “Rosselkhoznadzor”.

The department informed that measures are being taken to clarify the situation and take appropriate steps, the results will be published. There is no clarity on this issue, whether the product contains violations, or whether a political decision was made in Russia to send another signal to the RA authorities.

It is no secret that the European integration agenda adopted by the RA authorities is of great concern to the Russian authorities. At the meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin on April 1, Vladimir Putin announced that they see that a discussion is underway in Armenia regarding the development of relations with the EU.

“We treat it completely calmly, we understand that any country strives to get the maximum benefit from cooperation with third countries. However, it should be obvious, it should be honestly stated in advance, as they say, from the beginning, that being in the customs union with the European Union and being in the EAEU is impossible. It is simply impossible,” Putin said.

He noted that the issue is not even political, but purely economic in nature. “Because some issues require a lot of joint work, which should be carried out for years. It is the difference in the evaluation of individual product groups, the entrance of these groups to the market. It is the phytosanitary control for all products. Phytosanitary requirements in Russia and European Union countries are completely different, significantly different.

After the Pashinyan-Putin meeting in the Kremlin, there was also an interview of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. By the way, Overchuk is the figure who constantly talks about the decline of Russian business interest in Armenia due to the RA-EU integration decision, the incompatibility of EAEU-EU standards at a certain stage, and business problems.

In his interview, Overchuk noted that Pashinyan openly stated that Russian business in the republic is not under threat, but the facts speak otherwise. “Last summer, we asked the Prime Minister of Armenia a direct question about the prospects of Russian investors in Armenia. A direct answer was given to our direct question: nothing threatens Russian business in RA. The facts say the opposite. We see ourselves being told one thing, but in reality something completely different is happening.

First, the property rights of a Russian businessman who had interests in electricity purchase and retail trade were violated, and now an offer was made to the Russian state company to sell the concession,” he said, referring to the situation surrounding the national philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan, as well as Pashinyan’s proposal to transfer the Russian concession of the South Caucasian Railway to a third party.

As Overchuk mentioned, Moscow realizes that, in addition to pro-Westerners, there are people in Armenia who want to reduce relations with the Russian Federation and remove Russian business from the republic. Therefore, according to him, conversations about the undesirability of the presence of Russian companies in Armenia will raise the issue of the work of Armenian businesses in Russia.

“The reality is that the Armenian railway, if it is preserved, should remain a road serving the needs of its own economy, the real prospects of which are connected with the EAEU. Our interest is to increase trade with Armenia, as well as with all the states of the region, but if we are told that the presence of Russian companies in Armenia does not correspond to Armenia’s interests, then, based on the principle of reciprocity, it would be fair to ask: if Russian companies and businessmen cannot be present and earn in Armenia, then why Armenian companies and businessmen can be present and earn in Russia,” he said.

The Pashinyan-Putin meeting was followed by Pashinyan’s meeting with major Armenian businessmen on April 13. At that meeting, among a number of other issues, according to reports, Pashinyan tried to dispel the concerns of Armenian businessmen regarding possible business problems in the Russian Federation, noting that they are temporary, as the already established peace will open new opportunities for Armenian business abroad in the near future.

Perhaps, many people understand that the prospect of lifting the blockade with Azerbaijan and Turkey promises a dim prospect for Armenian business, to put it mildly, especially when the so-called Yerevan-Baku peace is not documented, and the Armenian cultural and religious heritage is under attack in Artsakh, which is a unique form of war. Therefore, the Russian market will be a key market for Armenian business for a long time.

However, it is important to understand that, if earlier Russian displeasure was expressed exclusively at the level of diplomatic statements, then the blocking of a large batch of “Jermuk” mineral water proves that the Kremlin is already moving to the stage of practical warnings. The blocking of Armenian products by the Russian federal authorities under the pretext of quality control is an element of the “trade war”, which Moscow has repeatedly used in the case of a number of other countries.

The targeting of “Jermuk” does not seem to be accidental, as it is one of the most recognizable brands of Armenian exports, so by creating a problem for this brand, Russia is sending a message to the entire Armenian business community, showing that any sector of mass consumption can come under attack.

The official claims of the Russian side that EU membership is not compatible with EAEU have both legal and political implications. The EAEU single customs zone implies common external tariffs, and any rapprochement with the EU may lead to the elimination of existing preferential regimes. Moscow openly hints that if Armenia adopts European standards, Armenian products will immediately lose confidence in the Russian market due to technical inconsistency.

The suspension of the “Jermuk” batch should be considered as a clear signal that the Russian market is no longer guaranteed. In the near future, Armenian business may face new sanitary barriers, detection of “sudden” deterioration of the quality of agricultural products by “Rosselkhoznadzor” and other problems. All this proves that the Armenian business is facing a new reality. If Armenia continues the policy of rapprochement with the EU, and it most likely will continue, the case of “Jermuk” may become a precedent. Therefore, the Armenian private sector should be ready for surprises in Russia.

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