2020-2023 after severe upheavals, Armenia is experiencing a profound transformation of both its foreign policy direction and internal state narratives. Official Yerevan is increasingly moving away from traditional national concepts in favor of a new, often painful “peace agenda” for society.
Where is the fine line between forced diplomatic pragmatism and the actual adoption of the political theses of Baku and Ankara? What will the lack of clear “red lines” by the Armenian authorities lead to, and how will the radical change in rhetoric affect the country’s sovereignty and internal political stability? On these and other acute issues VERELQThe editors of the political scientist talked Davit Harutyunov with.
In the interview, the expert analyzes in detail the hidden motives of the current authorities, warns about the risks of concessions and makes predictions about the future of Armenian statehood under unprecedented external pressure.
Photo: Davit Harutyunov, source: Yerevan Today
VERELQ. How do you assess the current transformation of Armenia’s official rhetoric regarding peace and the Karabakh problem in general? In your opinion, where is the line between the pragmatic search for a diplomatic compromise and the actual borrowing of the political theses of Baku and Ankara?
Davit Harutyunov. In one way or another, the revision of approaches to the interpretation of the Karabakh problem, a number of events in the recent history of Armenia, was inevitable after the events of the last five years. Moreover, the driving forces of such revision are the pressure exerted by Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as the factors of the intra-Armenian agenda. Maintaining the previously existing rhetoric and approaches would largely mean the continuation of the conflict, for which Armenia does not have real conditions and opportunities. At the same time, the authorities of Armenia are clearly not trying to find, even at the cost of a possible freezing of relations, the border that will limit the concessions on this topic. The absence of such “red lines” is fraught with the continuation and expansion of the demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey and their further interference in the Armenian internal agenda.
VERELQ. Many people notice that the rapprochement of Yerevan’s positions with the narratives of neighboring countries causes an ambiguous reaction inside Armenia. In your opinion, how will this factor affect domestic political stability and social cohesion in the near future?
Davit Harutyunov. There are a number of factors that strengthen the negative impact of the said review within Armenia and discredit that process where it is even objectively inevitable. First of all, the conjunctural nature of this trajectory of the Armenian authorities is obvious, that is, it is not about their consistent and clear strategy, but situational actions carried out under external pressure. Then, through changes in the official narratives, an attempt is made to “whitewash” and justify a number of mistakes made by the authorities in the past. And finally, this process itself is carried out without contact with society and is closely integrated with internal political processes, often subordinated to them, which also creates tension. I think that theoretically there was a possibility of a more subtle implementation of these concessions, which would combine the satisfaction of certain demands of Baku with a more cautious attitude towards certain layers of the Armenian society, as well as the start of a real, non-conjunctural public discussion in the country about the events of the recent past.
VERELQ. If the current political direction of the current government receives a mandate of confidence in the elections, what long-term changes can be expected to traditional Armenian national concepts in the context of the advancing peace agenda?
Davit Harutyunov. It is clear that the current trajectory will continue in one way or another. At the same time, it is difficult to predict its specific manifestations, because the main factor here is external demands, and the previous experience shows that Baku and Ankara can change and expand their demands, especially in the absence of Yerevan’s attempts to draw “red lines” in this matter. At the same time, the possibility of weakening the positions of the authorities due to the peculiarities of their social policy can play a certain limiting role in this matter.
VERELQ. In the conditions of the formation of a new state foreign policy line, the question of freedom of debate arises. According to your forecasts, how will the relations of the authorities with the opposition and that part of the civil society, which conceptually do not share this path, be built?
Davit Harutyunov. The answer to this question will strongly depend on the results of the elections. In case of a convincing victory of the current authorities, the course of pressure on the opposition will most likely continue. At the same time, the assessments about the possibility of complete suppression of dissent also seem doubtful, that is, rather we will be dealing with the development of the authoritarian system formed under the previous authorities of Armenia and modified by the current prime minister. And the weak results of the ruling party in the elections may lead to a weakening of the pressure on the opposition. At the same time, it should be noted that the motives of maintaining power are a decisive factor in the actions of the authorities against the opposition, and the issue of new ideological approaches remains secondary for now.
VERELQ. From the point of view of realpolitik. How effective is adapting the terminology of neighboring countries to prevent escalation? At least, that’s how many see the situation. How will such a strategy affect Armenia’s foreign political subjectivity in the long term?
Davit Harutyunov. The package of certain concessions and the reduction of Armenia’s subjectivity were inevitable in 2020-23. after a series of defeats. The “peace for concessions” strategy also has the right to exist. At the same time, the actions of the Armenian authorities raise questions precisely from the point of view of the lack of a strategic aspect in them. The limits of these concessions are unclear, and it also seems that the authorities’ course is generally based on trust in the good will and pursuit of peace of the other side rather than on real factors. Naturally, all this raises concerns about the stability of the security situation and the possibility of further limiting Armenia’s sovereignty.
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