Iran’s strategic breakthrough. Why is Washington backing down?

The US and Israel have long claimed to have destroyed Iran’s air defenses, air force, navy and leadership, but the international press is discussing Iran’s latest strikes on the US-British military base on Diego Garcia Island, some 4,000 km away.

Iran has reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at the military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. Tehran called this a success, although it is also noted that one of the missiles fell into the sea, and an SM-3 interceptor missile was launched from an American destroyer in the direction of the second. In other words, as a result, none of them reached the target. However, the “Военный Осведимитель” telegram channel writes that this is an important moment in the course of the conflict.

“The problem is that for many years Iran maintained a unilateral limitation of the range of ballistic missiles – 2000 km. This was done in order to demonstrate the “absence of aggressive intentions”, “the absence of a global threat from Iran” and generally “not to complicate the negotiation background”. However, the former leader of Iran, who approved that limit, has been killed and is already going to war.

Iran originally had missiles capable of a range of 4,000 km. For example, missiles of the “Khoramshahr” family have a standard range of 2,000 km, but with a 1.5-2 ton warhead.

It is not necessary to develop a new missile. you can install a significantly lighter warhead, slightly change the mode of operation of the engine, and the missile will fly much further. Thus, the North Korean relative of Khoramshahr, the Hwasong-10 missile, demonstrated the ability to fly 3,400 km back in 2016.

And nothing prevented them from preparing something else in their warehouses, they could not test it, or test it and not announce it, so as not to “spoil the negotiation background”. They can also be used for space program needs rather than military. In any case, the geography of Iranian strikes is expanding, and the use of the existing technological stock is not restrained by various self-limitations,” writes the military telegram channel.

The analysis notes that, for comparison, the US has another similar base on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean. According to the publication, the same North Korea successfully tested the Hwasong-12 missile in 2017 to hit Guam in case of war, and created a nuclear warhead for it.

“It has also conducted multiple test launches over Japan at an appropriate distance (3,700 km) on a conventional trajectory (as well as a suspended trajectory to demonstrate that the missile can also fly further with a recalculated conventional trajectory). This was done in order to show the possibility of access and the determination to strike if necessary, without any self-limitation, even in order not to “complicate the negotiation background”…” the channel notes.

168.amin the conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the Diego Garcia base is an important target for Iran, because it is from there that the US bombards Iran and it is there that the key logistics point of the US Navy is located. Therefore, according to him, it will be difficult to overestimate the importance of hitting it.

“However, as of now, even without hitting that island, Iran has solved a problem for itself by showing that it has long-range missiles that many had no idea about. This is even more impressive in the background of statements that Iran’s potential has been eliminated. Therefore, even without hitting a woman, this is considered a success in Iran. In addition, this step shows the military determination and the policy of not avoiding the escalation of the war, which is no less important. This also introduces unpredictability into the war, because if there are missiles of such a range, they can be directed in other directions as well. Therefore, this is something that the USA and Iran cannot ignore,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

He also described another news in this war situation with Iran as very surprising.

“The US Department of Finance partially lifted the sanctions on Iranian oil for one month, allowing the purchase and sale of Iranian oil in order to reduce the prices of energy carriers. Because of the war, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, shaking the global energy market. As a result of all this, the US is lifting the existing sanctions against Tehran, something that Tehran demanded during the peace talks and could not agree to.

In fact, Washington was forced to make such a decision, and earlier it had made a similar decision regarding Russian oil. Everyone in the world knew about the consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz, why this was not calculated by the US is incomprehensible, because this forced step to lift sanctions against Iran during the war works against the US itself,” the analyst said.

He believes that the most important thing here is that the US initial calculation and hopes were not justified, after which everything went according to the Iranian plan.

“The American initial plan was a quick action with quick results, because the USA probably understood well that it is not possible to have a long war with such a country at such a distance. Iran is a country that has at least many levers in the region. I think that Iran’s attacks on the Qatar oil refinery were also important in this last chain. Everything shows that the US has lost control over the processes, as a result of which it is resorting to highly undesirable and forced steps,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

He believes that these developments in the region and neighboring regions still strengthen the role of Iran.

“This applies to the South Caucasus as well. However, the war continues, it is too early for final conclusions,” he said.

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