168: Aliyev understands that Pashinyan is not forever, he can change at any moment, even

Satik Seyranyan on the air of “Pressing” program the guest is political analyst Hakob Badalyan.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• About the formation of nationwide consolidation by opposition forces. we must refrain from the old disease of the Armenian opposition field, having ambitions disconnected from reality. This will allow you to create a fairly good environment for further work. The format itself, which is being tried to be created, is necessary, but not sufficient, because it is not only the outlined agenda items that are important, but the work towards them. I also consider it important that the point of change of power is missing, which again is not realistic at the moment, but work towards those 4 points can lead to it. Working with the public is also important.

• It is very natural that the ruling power will try to target the established opposition format. It is very important not to give in to these temptations. They will constantly drag you into the field of the past, they will remind each other of the things they said to each other on different occasions. The question is, will that format be able to go beyond the past and discuss issues of the future and represent people? In that case, the opposition will not be trapped by the government. 

• The opposition cannot be guided by the principles of artificial equality. Real work must be built taking into account the real balance of forces. Otherwise, these works will be cut to pieces.

• In the past, the opposition was guided by “Consensus-1” logic, but I think today they should be guided by “Consensus 1” logic, where society should be 1. Society should be made a participant in the processes:

• To consider the realities on a broad, national level, you have to start by considering the realities of the opposition field.

• Nikol Pashinyan cannot go to the constitutional referendum without the opposition. Now either he has to usurp those 6-7 mandates, or he has to come to an agreement with the opposition in some way. If this does not happen, the matter cannot reach the Yes or No camps. Rather, there will be early elections. Now one cannot talk about those camps in general:

• If Pashinyan is in a hurry on any issue, it can only be on leaving power. Only then can he have the motivation to leave power safely, given the problems he has created for our state. His main task is to ensure his personal safety. In all other cases, on the contrary, he has a problem of gaining time:

• Aliyev is not guided by emotions and understands that issues related to Armenia are not only issues of Armenia and Azerbaijan. it touches on much broader issues. Aliyev seeks first to legitimize his ambitions in the international arena by taking advantage of Armenia’s vulnerability. 

• Aliyev understands very well that Pashinyan is not eternal, and this construction can change at any moment. That is why he is already laying many dangerous mines today, and the foundations for demining them must be laid today.

• The opposition should also talk to external forces, understanding that the “yes” of a political subject is “yes”, and “no” is “no”. The political process has no alternative. You have to relate not only to those who support you, but also to those who hurt you. There is no other logic:

• It is necessary to explain in detail to the public what TRIPP is, of course, taking into account the reality. If such a document is signed with the US, sending it to the writer’s lap means sending the writer’s lap to the US. Therefore, explaining to people what TRIPP is, it should be said that it is a Corridor given by the USA, it should be accompanied by the content of modernizing Trump’s path, including our interests and neutralizing threats. The public needs to be told that not everything is black and white, because big politics is not absolutely black and white.is

• I see that the political opposition forces reject TRIPP in this form, because it is really rejectable, because even during the parliamentary discussions that took place these days, the government did not give any articulate answer, but the opposition also points to the steps in which Armenia can also have balanced political and economic benefits. This is the way, we cannot ignore the US factor. This is an opportunity for Armenia to work, which the current government cannot do, because the current government is guided only by the mindset of fulfilling Azerbaijan’s demands without objection. 

• It is necessary to develop the concept of “peace without concessions” and present it to external players, because in this form TRIPP only solves the issue of communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, Armenia gets nothing.

• The fact that the government did not get a constitutional majority was a very significant change in the situation, although you don’t know why, it was puzzling that starting from June 8, various circles tried to downplay the value of that change, leading the issue to the fact that there was no change of government once again, and causing people to feel desperate. That is very wrong. It is necessary to show people that the work changes the situation.

• Let me remind you of an important episode. When the stack of papers was signed at the airport with Marco Rubio, the Armenian-American framework agreement was also signed, but… it was initialed in the Rubio-Mirzoyan format. That was on May 26. 2 days after that, a delegation led by Rubio, the deputy for business affairs, leaves for Baku. It was Energy Week there, and on June 1, word spread that an $8 billion US-Azerbaijani commitment had been signed in Baku. On the same June 1, but already in US time, Rubio alone in Washington signs the Armenian-American framework agreement, which was initialed here, “Zvartnots” at the airport. And 3 days after that, on June 4, Ararat Mirzoyan signs the agreement signed by Rubio alone in his office. Now the question is, well, why wasn’t it signed in Armenia… Because they initialed it here, then negotiated in Baku, got that 8 billion contract, and then just signed it. It’s just that they forgot to tell Mirzoyan early that they had already signed. They said 3 days late…

To remind: The United States has signed more than $8 billion in trade agreements with Azerbaijan, deepening economic and energy cooperation with Baku. Cooperation in the fields of energy, oil and gas exploration, supply of important minerals and rare earth elements is planned within the scope of the agreements. In particular, ExxonMobil presented a memorandum on new exploration opportunities, and Chevron signed an exploration agreement.

It is important to emphasize that the 8 billion dollars announced with Azerbaijan is the total value of trade agreements, not exclusively the volume of American investments. 

• Before signing the Armenian-American agreement in Washington on August 8, Wittkoff negotiated with Putin for 3.5 hours. I can’t imagine that there was any way that what was going to happen in Washington 2 days later could not have been discussed there.

• In the TRIPP document, almost all the main players have secured their rights, with the exception of Armenia, which only received the backbone of this government’s propaganda, the illusion of peace, and the European Union. Russia has rights there, first of all, by virtue of the right to manage the railway concession.

• Aliyev was able to disconnect point 9 from the document package of November 9, neutralize the other 8 points on the ground, where Aliyev’s favorable records were not made, and leave only point 9, moreover, with more favorable conditions for him.

• The US election could raise hopes for the European Union and reduce the chances of an agreement with Russia, because the TRIPP project was largely negotiated under the Democrats. Former US Secretary of State Blinken and his deputy O’Brien were busy with issues of unblocking roads for Azerbaijan, whose proposals coincided with European proposals. It is another matter that Trump was more gracious in that sense, who also took into account Israel’s interest, because TRIPP negotiators have close ties to Israeli circles. In other words, Democrats are not opposed to TRIPP, but have other ideas about its implementation.

• The guarantee of stability around Syunik, at least in this period, is the agreements that exist between Trump and Putin. Iran is certainly interested in stability around Syunik. Today, Iran cannot play a role on all fronts, because today it is focused on the events taking place around the Gulf and the Middle East, and being a guarantor means having a direct participation.

• It is very interesting that Velayati’s article is published alongside a very interesting communication. Putin first had a telephone conversation with General Rezaei, Secretary General of Iran’s Security Council, then a few days later Rezaei went to Moscow, they had a meeting in the Kremlin. First of all, this is unusual in terms of subordination, when the Russian president is having a telephone conversation with an Iranian official occupying a significantly lower position, which means that there were very important issues to discuss. 

• Velayati is an influential figure, his article gave the impression of a last warning to Armenia and gives cause for serious reflection. This is a serious and alarming impulse, especially if we take into account that in the background of the possibility of a new strike around Iran, their spiritual leader has ordered strikes without geographical restrictions.

• In the great Russian-Iranian agreement, the Caucasus and the Caspian region are considered as a zone of joint interests, and it is in this context that the behavior of both Iran and Russia should be considered. And in a certain sense, Russia can delegate the immediate work functions of the Caucasus to Iran, but politically, Russia is in the primary position. 

• If we are talking about a big regional war, it does not depend on what Pashinyan did or didn’t do. it depends on the Putin-Trump arrangements.

• Arresting oppositionists, showing loyalty to Azerbaijan’s narratives and ensuring the security of their government depend on Armenia’s weight. Nothing else depends on Armenia. Pashinyan has reached a point that this is all that depends on him, not regional events. For example, this attack against Samvel Karapetyan took place after Pashinyan’s visit to Brussels. Before the visit, things happened that the Europeans did not like. This is the well-known position on the issue of the nuclear power plant, which was expressed during the meeting with the head of “Rosatom” Alexey Likhachev, the approach related to the railway and the announcement of early elections. Europe understands very well that going to early elections is not a good day for Pashinyan, and it clearly worried the Europeans. Pashinyan has a problem of maneuvering and gaining time:

Details in the video.

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