Turkish motivations for increasing national defense spending

In September of this year, Vice President of Turkey Cevdet Yilmaz presented the economic plan for 2027-2029.

Accordingly, the republic intends to increase defense spending by 229 percent (more than three times) in the next three years. The purpose of this move is to strengthen the country’s independence and expand its influence in Eurasia. At the same time, it was emphasized that the financing is planned to be directed to the development of domestic technologies, meeting the needs of national defense and creating platforms with high added value.

It is noteworthy that the increase in the costs of the development of the military-industrial complex within the framework of the announced program is the most significant. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in 2025, Turkey’s military expenditures have already reached 30 billion dollars, which has secured it the 18th place. According to the analysts of the Swedish “think tank”, the increase is largely due to the necessity of spending on ongoing military operations in Iraq, Somalia and Syria. However, the primary motive remains the desire for the rise of the Turkish defense industry.

Some researchers believe that this shift in funding redistribution is the result of Turkey’s long-standing frustration with “unreliable Western allies” and its desire for greater strategic autonomy.

Instead of buying equipment from NATO partners, Ankara is using the funds allocated to increase the budget to develop its own industrial base, paying special attention to drones, air defense and radio electronic warfare. Others note that Turkey’s geographical position near the epicenters of major regional conflicts also forces the political elite of the republic to increase national defense costs.

Let’s agree that “geography largely determines the fate of the state”, but the conflict in the Middle East has already become a de facto geopolitical constant. Therefore, in our opinion, the instability along Turkey’s borders, although it is a weighty reason that led to a sharp increase in defense costs, can hardly explain the relevance of such a move at the current stage. As for the Western factor, let’s note that the arguments about moving away from “leaning on NATO” are not sufficiently valid, which was proved, in particular, by the results of the summer summit of the Alliance on Turkish soil this year.

Rather the opposite The increase in the rate of development of Turkey’s national military industry corresponds to the interests of the countries of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance, taking into account the maintained role of the republic as the “Southern buffer” of NATO. This is a clear proof of the doctrine declared by Washington, which acts as an auxiliary means to “delegate” the realization of its interests in various regions to its allies, among which Turkey is certainly included in the Middle East.

Among other reasons, one cannot fail to mention the factor of the Persian Gulf countries, which have been providing significant financial support to the “floating” Turkish economy for the first time. In return, they need reliable and affordable Turkish technologies that can justify their investment. It is not for nothing that we are currently witnessing the formation of Turkey’s full regional alliances with the Arab monarchies, which especially intensified the cooperation with the Turkish government and defense companies against the backdrop of the American-Israeli aggression against Iran.

Another undisputed driver of the growth of the military-industrial complex is the Association of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen, which is made up of businessmen from central and eastern Turkey who have conservative religious beliefs and mostly run small and medium-sized enterprises. Members of the association are an important component of the electoral base of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and a key link in the diversification of Ankara’s foreign relations.

In order to strengthen the positions of the “Anatolian tigers” (as the members of the association are sometimes called), Erdogan activates economic projects in the countries of the Middle East, Africa and Asia, where, based on Islamic values ​​and in the absence of obvious competition from other representatives of national business circles, they gain additional advantages in establishing ties with Muslim countries.

In this regard, the economic component of Ankara’s international activities plays an important role, and one of the special directions of Turkish exports is the products of the defense industry, the implementation schedule of which clearly shows that the two main buyers of Turkish military designs are the UAE (20.5%) and Saudi Arabia (12.1%).

It is also important that the strengthening of “national pride” due to the success of the defense industry is a significant element in the discourse promoted by the ruling circles to strengthen their political positions in the eyes of the electorate. This is especially relevant on the eve of the upcoming elections in 2028, in which Erdoğan can most likely be nominated again.

It is no coincidence that in his speech dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the formation of AKP, while listing the successes during the mentioned period, he made a special emphasis on the military-industrial complex. The Turkish president noted that “the country, which used to buy infantry rifles abroad, now produces warships, helicopters, tanks, missiles and submarines” and as a symbol of Turkey’s “new confidence”, he was one of the first to mention unmanned aerial vehicles, the KAAN national fighter and air defense systems.

It is interesting that such a speech finds a positive response among the people. A July survey by the major research firm Area Araştırma shows a rare unanimity. More than 80% of the supporters of all the parties represented in the Turkish Parliament are in favor of investments in the national military-industrial complex. According to the interviewees, these investments will contribute to the country’s economic growth.

after all increasing defense spending will allow Turkey to become a more influential global player. It will also increase the effectiveness of its military operations in the zones of its own interests. This decision of Ankara stems from its own national interests. After all, Turkey is oriented towards supplying western components and cooperates with European and American companies. In addition, he is systematically expanding military exports to countries bordering Russia, especially Ukraine and Central Asia.                                              

Maria Kolesnikova

interaffairs.ru

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