Armenia will not want to leave EAEU. CSTO and EAEU: two structures, one demand. Moss

The autumn-winter political season for Armenia seems to enter the stage of open confrontation and tough decisions, where the issues of security architecture and economic integration are approaching the final conclusion.

Months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of the other EAEU member states, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, in a joint statement urged Yerevan to hold a referendum on joining the European Union or staying in the Eurasian Economic Union as soon as possible. The leaders of the 4 EAEU member states directly told the 5th member, Armenia, that this December, during the next EAEU summit, the issue of Armenia’s membership in that structure will be on the table for discussion, and the Eurasian Intergovernmental Commission will report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership.

The permanent representative of Russia in the CSTO Viktor Vasilev also said that the adoption of the decision to deprive Armenia of voting rights in the CSTO bodies will require consensus. “The regular session of the CSTO Collective Security Council will take place on November 11 in Moscow, and the heads of states will probably discuss this issue. The decision on it, if required, will be taken by consensus,” the Russian official said.

He emphasized that Article 25 of the CSTO Charter provides for the possibility of nominating citizens of the state in quota positions, as well as suspending the right to vote in the organization’s bodies, if the given country does not fulfill its obligations to the organization’s budget within two years.

“This actual situation has been in place for more than two years, because Armenia does not nominate its citizens for the quota positions of the Secretariat, and also recalled its representatives from the CSTO Joint Headquarters.” noted Vasiliev.

Let’s remind that Armenia has actually frozen its participation in CSTO from September 2023. After Victor Biyagov’s recall, Armenia did not appoint a permanent representative in that organization.

Back in 2024, Nikol Pashinyan made it clear that Yerevan does not veto CSTO decisions, but is ready to strengthen relations with its partners. According to Yerevan, the freezing of Armenia’s participation in the organization is due to the fact that the Collective Security Treaty Organization did not fulfill its obligations during 2021-2022. It was about the attacks of the Azerbaijani side on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia during that period. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on June 10 that due to Armenia’s failure to make payments to the CSTO, the CSTO will consider invoking the article of the charter that regulates actions against member states that do not fulfill their obligations.

It is obvious that the November CSTO session and the December EAEU summit will turn into a classic “moment of truth” for Armenia’s foreign policy. Against this background, it is noteworthy that Pashinyan was congratulated today by the President of Kazakhstan Kasim Jomart-Tokayev, who joined the EAEU statement against Armenia, as well as the President of CSTO member Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, on his appointment as Prime Minister.

Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the raising of the issue of Armenia in both the CSTO and EAEU is not accidental, because Russia, which is the core of these organizations, has put the issue hard. According to him, if in the case of CSTO the situation was more predictable before these developments, it already seemed that Armenia will not continue the work and is ready for any decision in this regard, as it considers cooperation in that area closed, then the situation is different in the case of the EAEU, because the mechanisms in the EAEU are working, the economies are interconnected.

“Naturally, it is difficult for the economy to be deprived of the working economic mechanisms of the EAEU, the benefits of its work, when there are no alternatives. On the other hand, it is clear to everyone that EAEU is not a purely economic integration structure, only economic integration is difficult to imagine, because economy and politics are interconnected, especially in the case of Russia and especially in the case of current geopolitical developments.” noted the analyst.

“The problem is that when making a decision in both structures, there should be a consensus, and especially in the case of EAEU, the statements coming from Armenia allow us to assume that the issue will be complicated and the processes will not be easy.” the analyst expressed a similar opinion, continuing that the Armenian side will probably choose the tactic of restraining tough decisions through veto or consensus mechanisms. However, according to the analyst, it is difficult to say how much it is possible to extend this period with such tactics, because this, in turn, will deepen the political resistance against Armenia.

According to Alexander Khramchikhin, it is also obvious that the West is still not ready to compensate for the possible economic losses that may occur as a result of the rupture with the EAEU.

“This is the main reason, perhaps, that Armenia will not want to leave the EAEU, because it has not resolved the issues of redirecting economic flows to other markets, and this is the most complicated process in this whole process.” said the analyst.

This autumn-winter political season is becoming a lucky milestone for Armenia, where Yerevan will have to finally clarify its position in the integration structures operating on the Russian axis.

While in the CSTO case the actual relations are frozen and decision-making depends on consensus, the situation in the EAEU direction is more complicated, given the deep economic interdependence and the lack of alternatives.

Diplomatic developments in the coming months will show how Armenia will be able to maintain economic stability and at the same time continue its adopted path of integration with the West without upheavals. At this intersection of economic ties and geopolitical orientation, Moscow is constantly narrowing the field of maneuver of the Armenian authorities and the opportunities to gain time.

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