Yerevan-EAEU-EU. the “trade” debate is increasingly politicized

The RA government will make a decision the other day accept on establishing a temporary ban on the import of tomato paste. The relevant decision was approved at the July 30 meeting of the government. It is assumed that the restriction will be in effect for half a year.

The ban extends not only to the import of tomato paste from third countries, but also to its transportation from member states of the Eurasian Economic Union and transit through the territory of other EAEU countries. The government noted that the measure was adopted in order to ensure equal competitive conditions for companies engaged in the import of tomato paste and local producers of products from Armenian raw materials, as well as to regulate the process of buying tomatoes from local producers.

It is noted that the restrictions “imposed by a number of countries” on the export and transit of quarantined products of Armenian origin led to a reduction in the volume of supplies of fruits and vegetables, including greenhouse tomatoes. As a result, a significant proportion of greenhouse tomatoes previously destined for export is now sold domestically, which in turn has led to a decrease in demand for tomatoes grown in the open field.

Problems related to the supply of Armenian products to Russia began at the end of May. “Rosselkhoznadzor” has introduced (and continues to do so) step by step restrictions on the import of various categories of goods, explaining this by violations of veterinary and phytosanitary requirements.

Successively, flowers, vegetables, fruits, and fish products came under the ban (about 15 thousand tons of live fish accumulated in Armenian fish farms, which cannot be exported to Russia. Producers have already started selling it in the domestic market at almost the cost price, 1,700-1,800 drams per kilogram. announced Gor Grigoryan, President of the Union of Fish Breeders of Armenia.

He admits that it is impossible to quickly reorient exports to Europe.

“Closing the 30-year-old market and immediately entering a new market with the same volumes is an impossible task. And the problem is not only in fish, it applies to any product.” In addition to the EU, the markets of the USA and the Persian Gulf monarchies are being considered, but the solution to the problem will take time.

Currently, the Ministry of Economy is negotiating with potential foreign partners, but it is unrealistic to hope that new markets will be able to quickly accept the full volume of Armenian products), and then almost all quarantined products of Armenian origin.  Since July 27, Russia has also completely closed the Armenian dairy market.

Let’s remind that on July 27, without leaving the regular vacation, RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin.

By: “Armenpress”– the interlocutors exchanged ideas on the agenda of Armenia-Russia relations, in particular, the problems arising in bilateral economic relations… Pashinyan emphasized that the restrictions on the export of goods of Armenian origin to the Russian market contradict the legal basis of the Armenia-Russia contract and the regulations of the Eurasian Economic Union, and asked to take measures to resolve these problems.

As for holding a referendum in the Republic of Armenia on the issue of Armenia’s membership in the European Union, as mentioned in In the joint statement of the leaders of the four EAEU member states adopted on May 29, Pashinyan emphasized that “practically, this is possible only after Yerevan sends an official application to the European Union for EU membership, and when the subject becomes substantive.” At the same time, the Prime Minister reaffirmed “the readiness of the Government of the Republic of Armenia to solve the mentioned issues through an open, partnership and friendly dialogue”.

It is obvious that Pashinyan was forced to make an emergency call to the Kremlin by the mass protests of farmers who are suffering significant losses from Russian restrictions, which have already been extended to fish products, dairy products, etc. More than 90% of Armenia’s agricultural and food industry exports go to the Russian market, while the country’s authorities announce the search for alternative sources of supply.:

Thus, the European Commission recently allocated 52 million euros to support the private sector in Yerevan, and Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU market will be open to 99 percent of fresh agricultural products from Armenia and 90 percent of non-alcoholic beverages and alcoholic products. At the same time, even Pashinyan admits that he will not be able to take advantage of these opportunities quickly, because the current import procedures of the European Union for Armenia will hardly change with their statutory time.

The Armenian Embassy published a list of five grocery stores where you can buy fruit in Paris and some cities in the central region of Ile-de-France, but it is, to say the least, extremely insufficient and cannot be considered anything other than a not-so-skillful PR stunt.

It is no less important that the European Privileges for Armenian products also extend to 40 countries associated with the EU (according to the terms of association with the EU), for example, the Agro- and textile products of West Africa or the Maghreb, which have been associated with the EU for a long time, benefit from the privileges in the EU (and in most foreign territories, the Netherlands, France and Danish Greenland).

In Yerevan, they never get tired of announcing that they intend to continue working within the framework of the EAEU, while simultaneously developing relations with the European Union. At the same time, according to the results of the phone conversation between the leaders of Armenia and Russia, the Kremlin’s laconic message is noted, that “Vladimir Putin confirmed his loyalty to the joint statement of the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia adopted at the EAEU summit in Astana on May 29, 2026, regarding the actions of the Republic of Armenia aimed at joining the European Union.

In particular, it was emphasized the need to hold a nationwide referendum on Armenia’s accession to the EU in the shortest possible time frame or to be part of the EAEU in the future.”

In Moscow, it was invariably stated that the combination of participation in the two associations is impossible, considering that Armenia should decide the future foreign policy course by approving it through a referendum. At the same time, the other EAEU participants՝ including its associated Uzbekistan and Cuba, do not impose restrictions on trade with Armenia; it is another matter that its indicators fluctuate around zero.

We think it should not be a coincidence that Pashinyan, with his characteristic populist spirit, declares (perhaps not without prompting from outside) that the situation related to export restrictions within the EAEU is the problem of that association, which is allegedly paralyzed and does not perform its functions. Armenia has the legal right to form alternative directions of development for itself and intends to consistently move along that path, and the era when the country had no alternatives, according to Pashinyan, is over.

“If this issue is not resolved quickly, let me predict that this will be the beginning of the end of EAEU.” And on July 30, the head of the government introduced another prepared thesis, not excluding court investigations and an appeal to arbitration, on issues related to the South Caucasian Railway (a subsidiary of Russian Railways, “RZD”). Yerevan considers the transport network as its property and intends to manage it independently.

“For example, things may appear for which we have not asked for anything for 30 years, and now we will ask for 2 billion dollars a year for rent,” said Pashinyan, adding that he still hopes to reach an agreement with Moscow in a friendly way.

Bringing the SCR issue to international arbitration is fraught with serious economic consequences for Armenia and deterioration of the investment environment. thinks energy security expert Vahe Davtyan.

The concession agreement allows a unilateral solution, but in that case, Armenia will once again be at the center of another international economic scandal. That has already happened «Power grids» in the story that arrived is Stockholm Arbitration. In addition, Yerevan may have to pay compensation of about 270-280 million dollars to the Russian side.

by the way there is an assumption, that in reality Pashinyan did not allude to SCR, but to the Russian military base in Gyumri.

Alexey Baliev

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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