168: “Putin’s Way” – South Caucasus transport connectivity infrastructure

In the 2020s, the South Caucasus again became one of the key areas of competition for external actors. After the change in the balance of regional forces, the aggravation of the question of the post-conflict structure of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, and the activation of the USA, Turkey, and Iran, infrastructural connectivity began to be considered as a tool for political influence, strengthening presence, and forming new dependencies.

Transport corridors touch on issues of sovereignty, security, market access, transit control and symbolic leadership, turning the South Caucasus into a theater of competing models of regional order.

One of the most notable was the TRIPP project. In parallel, the Azerbaijani-Turkish “Zangezur Corridor”, the Armenian “Crossroads of Peace” project, the Araks Corridor (from the main part of Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan, through the territory of Iran, bypassing Armenia, with a possible exit to Turkey and the Persian Gulf), the Trans-Caspian or Middle Corridor, the “North-South” International Transport Corridor, the Persian Gulf-Black Sea are being promoted in the region. Corridor along the Iran-Armenia-Georgia route, and the EU-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania-Hungary Black Sea Energy and Digital Corridor, which provides for the transmission of electricity and data from the South Caucasus to Europe.

The analysis of these projects shows that the main competition is not so much between the roads as between the principles and procedures of their management: sovereign control or external mediation, exclusive access or mutual open communication.

This panorama requires Russian initiatives, including the “Putin’s Way” project, which has been submitted “Russia and the world. dialogues-2026. “New reality” at the international conference. The route should connect Russia to Armenia via Abkhazia and Georgia, restore direct transport links and provide access to wider South Caucasian and Iranian infrastructure.

The concept of “road” itself means not only a transport route, but also a movement towards a new model of regional communication, restoration of trust and reconciliation of the interests of the South Caucasus states. It reflects the Russian approach to regional development through dialogue, interdependence and joint perspectives, as well as the geostrategic and political-communicative meaning of the initiative. The initiative received a great response in the mass media.

Some foreign experts began to see it as a countermeasure that symbolically challenges the American TRIPP and is aimed at maintaining the Russian presence in the regional transport architecture. Without entering into a debate, let us mention two circumstances.

First of all, the Russia-Abkhazia-Georgia-Armenia route existed long before TRIPP. Railway communication through the territory of Sukhum ensured the connection of Moscow with Tbilisi and Yerevan.

It was stopped after the collapse of the USSR and the Georgian-Abkhaz War, including the destruction of the Ingur Bridge in 1992. That is why the “Putin’s Way” initiative is not related to TRIPP, but has been modernized based on real experience.

Second, Russia is considering the restoration of railway communication with Georgia through the territory of Abkhazia as part of the unblocking of transport and political communications in the Caucasus.. After the resumption of air traffic in 2023, the Russian Foreign Ministry approved the further regulation of relations with Tbilisi the willingness and in February 2026 A. Overchuk spoke About the possibility of restoring the railway route through Abkhazia.

Thus, the initiative corresponds to the Russian trajectory of gradual restoration of transport, humanitarian and political ties between the countries of the South Caucasus and the neighboring states.

Geostrategic significance

The “Putin Way” initiative is interlinked with such Russian strategic interests as maintaining cooperation in the near abroad, developing Eurasian transport links, strengthening economic security and countering external monopolization of the South Caucasus infrastructure agenda.

In the concept of foreign policy of the Russian Federation for 2023, the near abroad is defined as a priority direction, and Russia’s goal is to turn the region into a zone of peace, neighborliness and prosperity.

The geo-economic significance of the initiative is related to the problems of the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 (forecasted until 2035), which envisages the development of international transport corridors, transit potential and logistics services.

For Russia, this route could reduce dependence on a limited number of southern destinations and expand access to Iran and the Middle East.:

While TRIPP is primarily aimed at including Armenia in the East-West route, the Russian initiative proposes a North-South route linking Russia, Abkhazia, Georgia and Armenia with a potential exit to Iran.

Integration with the North-South International Transport Corridor (NCT) could strengthen the role of participating countries as Eurasian transport hubs and provide them with additional access to Middle East markets.

For Russia, the project means maintaining direct contact with Armenia. Strengthening of positions in Abkhazia, involvement in Georgian transit policy and formation of parallel Western-Turkish-Azerbaijani logistics configuration.

It shows that the unblocking of communications is possible not only in the Western or Azerbaijani-Turkish format. In this sense, “Putin’s way” is a means of adjusting the regional balance of forces and corresponds to the logic of the formation of a multi-vector and multi-polar world of the countries of the South Caucasus.

Moreover, it is understood that the practical implementation of the project is limited by the political status of Abkhazia, the position of Georgia, balancing interests of Armenia and the competition of external actors: But these contradictions can become not only obstacles, but also the subject of agreements, because the common infrastructural interest can create additional space for dialogue.

The political and communicative significance of the “Putin’s Way” initiative

Under the conditions of TRIPP’s advancement, the transport problems of the South Caucasus go beyond the boundaries of economic logic and become an area of ​​symbolic competition of external actors.  Infrastructure routes are seen not only as ways to transport goods and passengers, but also as political statements about who can shape regional connectivity architecture.

In this context, “Putin’s Way” presents Russia as an actor that offers mutually beneficial solutions and new opportunities to each participant of the project.

The initiative can contribute to easing the historically accumulated contradictions and the conflict legacy of the collapse of the USSR, which defined the relations between Georgia, Armenia and Abkhazia.

The main political and communication problem of the South Caucasus remains the lack of trust. The force scenario can change the positions of the parties, but it does not create stable order and lasting peace, but only transfers the contradictions into a latent form. For example, the Karabakh case shows the risks of perceiving the outcome of the situation as the final solution. And in reality, collective injuries, mutual concerns and the feeling of historical injustice are preserved at least among the two parties, the Karabakh people and the Armenians.

Therefore, today it is necessary to think not in the categories of achieved excellence, but in the perspective of joint existence։

“Putin’s way” can become a practical tool for increasing trust and replacing the logic of division and conflict with the logic of mutual necessity and agreement. Regular transportation, agreed rules, mutual obligations and a common security interest will create conditions for predictable interaction. It is from such practices that peace is gradually formed, which cannot be established exclusively by force. Thus, the initiative turns the transport route into a tool for new political communications and the future peaceful construction of the South Caucasus.

Benefits for countries participating in the “Putin Way” initiative

Apart from its geostrategic importance, the practical implementation of the Putin Way initiative can create direct benefits for each participating country.

For Armenia, the project can become not only a transport route, but also a tool for strengthening foreign political subjectivity. The land link with Russia is highly dependent on the Upper Lars crossing, whose operation is subject to seasonal restrictions, snowfall and avalanche danger. An alternative route through Abkhazia and Georgia will reduce dependence on one direction and increase the stability of foreign trade.

Since 2008, the railway system of Armenia has been under the concession management of the subsidiary company “Russian Railways”, but the lack of transit communication through the territory of Georgia and Abkhazia limits its possibilities.

The restoration of the railway route would allow the transportation of raw materials, heavy cargo, industrial and agricultural products to be cheaper. For a landlocked country, this also provides an opportunity to become a link between the Eurasian north, Iran and the Persian Gulf.

«“Putin’s way” can counterbalance TRIPP and reduce Armenia’s dependence on the dynamics of American interests. The emergence of the northern route will allow Yerevan to maintain a multi-vector policy. The socio-humanitarian significance of the route stems from the facilitation of contacts with the Armenian communities of Abkhazia, Georgia and Javakhk, as well as the development of tourism on the Russia-Abkhazia-Georgia-Armenia route.

For Georgia, the initiative can become a tool for strengthening the transport and geo-economic role. Its territory is capable of connecting East-West and North-South directions, providing transit revenue, handling freight and passenger flows, and infrastructure development.

The creation of coordinated transit mechanisms in the Abkhazian direction is of particular importance.  If agreements are reached, mutually acceptable customs, legal and technical procedures can be established to ensure the safety and predictability of transportation. This would allow the route to be used not only as a source of income, but also as a mechanism for the gradual formation of transparent economic relations with Abkhazia.

Through traffic can stimulate the development of logistics centers, road services, hotel business, public catering, gas stations and repair infrastructure.

Tourist and passenger flows from Russia to Armenia will create additional demand on the territory of Georgia, and control over the key part of the route will strengthen its negotiating positions.

For Abkhazia, “Putin’s way” can become a tool to get out of the transport periphery and partly from international isolation. The republic can turn from a dead end into a transit section of the Russia-Georgia-Armenia route and earn income from transportation, passenger transportation and logistics services.

As the restoration of communications will require upgrading railways and highways, energy, digital and service infrastructure, it will create jobs, increase regional connectivity and support small businesses.

The inclusion of Abkhazia in the international route can also increase the tourist flow, including in the off-season sector, and expand the access of local producers to the markets of Armenia and potentially Iran. Participation in the project will strengthen the political subjectivity and political-communication significance of Abkhazia.

For Russia, the “Putin Way” means maintaining a leading role in unblocking regional communications and shows that the US, Turkey and other external actors are not the only architects of the South Caucasus’ future.

The economic effect will be related to the promotion of production, employment, trade and development of the border areas. Russian companies can get new opportunities in the fields of construction, modernization of transport infrastructure, logistics, insurance and transport services. The route can reduce the cost of supplying Russian goods to Armenia and expand access to the markets of Iran and the Middle East.

Conclusions

Ամփոփելով՝ Several communication architectures are proposed in the South CaucasusThe North-South International Transport Corridor, the US-Armenia TRIPP, the Azerbaijan-Turkey Zangezur Corridor, the Armenian Crossroads of Peace, the EU-backed Trans-Caspian Corridor, and Iranian routes through Armenia or along the Araks River. Although the same infrastructure segments may be included in different projects, there is competition between the management principles of these projects.

“Putin’s Way” has a meaning that goes beyond the usual transport and logistics project. It has a political-communicative and geo-strategic meaning aimed at creating conditions and opportunities for dialogue and trust between the countries of the South Caucasus.

“Putin’s Way” is one of the models of interconnectedness based on historically and geographically formed Russia-South Caucasus ties. It does not allow to monopolize the topic of unblocking regional communications by external actors in order to realize their interests, without a real effort to ease the tension in the South Caucasus.

Participants in the “Putin Way” initiative have their own benefits and interests, but they are united by a common interest in restoring regional connectivity and predictability of mutual relations. Therefore, there is a possibility that the basis of the agreement on the project (not the deal, but the agreement itself) will for the first time not be the coincidence of political positions, but the emergence of new non-political conditions for consensus, the search for compromises, opportunities for dialogue and, ultimately, the restoration of lost trust.

Vladislav Gasumyanov

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Director of the National Research Institute of Communications Development, Head of the Department of Corporate Security at the Institute of International Energy Policy and Diplomacy of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)

interaffairs.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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