168: Pashinyan will lose power very quickly if he refuses to comply with the West

In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan’s guest is political scientist Hrant Mikayelyan.

in the USA protest wave has risen against the rapid construction of data centers serving artificial intelligence (AI) projects. These infrastructures power the operations of such tech giants as Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, and Elon Musk’s xAI. Activists claim that such facilities place an excessive burden on local resources, particularly the power system and water supply.

Protesters chanted “We need water, not data” and “Georgia didn’t vote for hyperscale AB centers.” According to the organizers, the movement has brought together people of different political views who are deeply concerned about the impact of these new facilities on their urban and rural communities.

According to a June Reuters/Ipsos poll, only a third of Americans support the current pace of data center construction in the country, and only 14% of respondents said they would like to see such a facility in their area.

And this is when, on the initiative of the Armenian government, Firebird cloud AB, an artificial intelligence company, plans to open a new 100 MW data center in Armenia in 2026. Thousands of Nvidia Blackwell graphics processors will be used to develop Armenia’s “tech industry and global partnerships” and “create new opportunities for innovation and economic growth across the region.” The government of Armenia plans to acquire $25 million in high-performance computing resources from Firebird AI over a five-year period for the purpose of developing modern artificial intelligence infrastructure in Armenia.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• To imagine, artificial intelligence (AI) data – Data-centers for how much electricity is spent, let’s note that in the USA they proposed to build one nuclear power plant for one data center. The same goes for water use. That is why the Americans are against the construction of data centers. The last one was not allowed to be built in New York. We need to understand what is our benefit from the construction of data centers՞what damages will we suffer? Don’t we need water? It turns out that the Armenian business spends the money, but the Americans will get the benefit, we are developing the American economy at the expense of our resources.: 

• In recent years, there has been a constant water problem in Armenia, including in Sevan. Now, with that program, it is planned to build the second data-center after Kotayk marz in Gegharkunik marz, near Sevan. It turns out that Sevan, which raised the water level of Lake Sevan with great difficulty in the last 50 years, is in serious danger. The construction of AB Data-centers is a threat, it will contribute to the drying up of Armenia.

• In 2026, the opposition is stronger than it was in 2021 in terms of financial capabilities and vote structure. Stronger opposition, however, is being resisted by a much harsher repressive regime. The political persecutions are primarily against the “Strong Armenia” and “Prosperous Armenia” parties. Now the level of repression has gone down. Pashinyan announced that those employees of Gagik Tsarukyan who will protest and go on strike will also be persecuted. It is clearly a repressive environment in Armenia.

• The Singapore Good Governance Index was released yesterday. Armenia took the 64th place in the “Good Governance Index”, after Georgia and Azerbaijan. Georgia took 43rd place, Azerbaijan – 57th, Turkey – 75th. Moreover, in recent years, Armenia’s position has been constantly decreasing. According to that index, the level of investments in Armenia is very low, at 1% of the GDP, which is an abnormal indicator, in contrast to the 5-6% during the previous authorities. The reason for this is that the economy has been politicized in Armenia, something that has never happened before. Property redistribution is also taking place, which is also an unprecedented phenomenon for Armenia.

• Making a political statement and taking money and property for the budget are different things. There are no budget entries. If any businessman, American or Armenian, learns that in Armenia HETC is being taken from Samvel Karapetyan, Araratcement is being taken from Gagik Tsarukyan, and he is offered to buy these businesses at cheap prices, let’s say for 100 million, what should that businessman think? Whichever country that businessman is from, won’t he think that after the change of government, that factory, that business will not remain for him? Only Turkey and Azerbaijan can threaten war and expect that the property taken from an Armenian businessman and sold to them will remain theirs. The only option is to sell to speculators. in which there is a risk that the equipment may sell out and that’s it. That’s why no normal businessman will buy the foreclosed properties:

• Pashinyan has always pursued an anti-Russian policy. Anyone with good ties to Russia is considered a traitor. The processes related to Gagik Tsarukyan and Samvel Karapetyan are purely geopolitical, related to Russia. there are no economic topics here:

• According to Pashinyan’s decision, Putin cannot come to Armenia because they ratified the Rome Statute, according to which Armenia must arrest Putin. Putin can see that danger, therefore he cannot come to Armenia. In that case, relations between the two countries cannot be normal. During the last Pashinyan-Putin meeting in Moscow, before the National Assembly elections, sharp disagreements came out into the public arena. Such shows should be avoided now. Pashinyan stated that their long-term goal is EU membership, Russia demands a decision: either you stay in the EAEU or you go to the EU. However, no matter how much Pashinyan declares that he is Armenian the people chose the European future, this is not proven by any election. The people did not make such a choice. It turns out that the consequences of Pashinyan’s decisions are borne by the Armenian people: 

• Pashinyan has put Armenia at the center of geopolitical tension, where the two are starting to compete for Armenia. The past wars are the result of it, and the theme of the Corridor. He has put Armenia in such a situation that we are starting to split, because Russia is pulling us to one side, Europe to the other. All of this comes at a price. Armenia should remove the geopolitical context from its politics and work with everyone, including third world countries.

• Nikol Pashinyan does nothing. what they instruct, it does. The self does not function here as a sovereign factor. Moreover, I must say, repressions are also managed from outside, including Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan also wants to change the Constitution so that we give up the national one:

• If Nikol Pashinyan refuses to fulfill the demands of the West, they will no longer turn a blind eye to Pashinyan’s repressions, and in that case, the latter will lose power very quickly. Now it is structurally and politically dependent on the West and Turkey. In almost all departments of Armenia, there are employees appointed from the West, who monitor the implementation of their instructions:

• The government of Georgia is pro-Georgian. They need relations with any country to be beneficial not to that country, but to them, Georgia.

• The example of Serzh Tankyan is the most shameful, who constantly made statements during Serzh Sargsyan’s rule, supported Pashinyan’s revolution, then, when Pashinyan handed over Artsakh, he did not reveal any secrets, did not accuse anyone, and as soon as Israel started a process regarding the Armenian Genocide, the same Tankyan woke up, accused and slept again. Being Armenian in itself is speculative, but if you are Armenian, you must protect the interests of Armenia in all circumstances. In such positions, the institution of shame should work:

• As of now, the alternative of the opposition not taking the mandates will be worse. The opposition should give up small tactical steps and think and act with big strategic approaches. Pashinyan solves the problem of maintaining his power every day. as long as he can, he will keep it. The opposition must conduct foreign policy with a completely different logic, abandon the “West or Russia” concept, get out of the geopolitical logic. The opposition must also develop a strategy and ideology for a long-term struggle, talk to the public with acceptable faces, and revise the personnel policy. Effective containment of power within the country must be done. A front of resistance must be created. For example, if the Catholicos is not invited to the inaugural NA session, let them organize NA hearings and invite the Catholicos to that session.

Details in the video.

—