Armenia putting more distance between itself and Russia

Pashinyan announced during a cabinet meeting on June 25 that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would soon visit Yerevan for talks focusing on expanding Armenian agricultural exports to EU member states. As part of a Russian pressure campaign to undermine Pashinyan’s re-election chances, Moscow threatened import bans on a wide variety of Armenian food products. The Kremlin followed through on its threat after Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party achieved a decisive electoral victory.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan recently traveled to Brussels to lay the groundwork for a deal in which the EU would pick up the agricultural export slack created by the Russian ban.

“There is a possibility that Armenia will have exceptional opportunities in this regard,” the official Armenpress news agency quoted Pashinyan as saying, referring to a pending agricultural export deal. “I hope that we will manage to finalize the relevant project with the President of the European Commission, and during her visit to Yerevan.”

The June 7 parliamentary election was widely seen as a referendum on Armenia’s future geopolitical orientation: Pashinyan since 2023 has steered the country westward, putting increasing distance between Armenia and its longtime strategic ally Russia; his main election opponents all held pro-Russian positions. 

In the security realm, a clear sign of Armenia’s affinity for Western integration is a rapidly improving relationship with Ukraine. Pashinyan met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Yerevan on the sidelines of an EU meeting in May. And on June 25, Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of Armenia’s National Security Council, was among the participants at an international gathering in the Polish city of Gdansk dedicated to promoting Ukraine’s recovery from its ongoing war with Russia.

Yerevan’s engagement with Ukraine has touched a raw nerve in the Kremlin. Yuriy Ushakov, an aide to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, denounced what he described as “Armenia’s political and foreign economic mischief,” as posing a threat to Russian-led economic and security organizations, specifically the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia’s refusal to uphold its CSTO treaty obligations to come to the defense of Armenia during its conflict with Azerbaijan is widely seen as sparking Pashinyan’s efforts to change Armenia’s geopolitical orientation.

Glossing over this fact, Ushakov tacitly threatened Armenia, suggesting that Yerevan could share the same fate as Ukraine, which withstood a Russian blitz in 2022 and has ground down the Kremlin’s military machine since then.

“Looking at the situation around Ukraine, it is clear that all this can lead to a tragedy,” the Interfax news agency quoted Ushakov as saying, hinting that Russia could potentially use its troops stationed in Armenia to try to halt Yerevan’s westward shift.

Emboldened by a strong showing in the June 7 election, the Armenian government shows no signs of bowing to Russian pressure. Armenian and French officials on June 25 discussed deepening bilateral trade and strategic ties, Armenpress reported. Earlier, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan said Armenia expects to fully normalize relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan by 2030, enabling the South Caucasus to become “a key connecting link between Europe and Central Asia” in trade routes that bypass Russia.

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