Suren Sargsyan
In recent weeks Russia appears to have become increasingly concerned about developments taking place around Armenia. While it is reasonable to assume that the Russian leadership has received assurances from the Armenian government that Armenia does not intend to join the European Union, Moscow seems to be growing skeptical of those assurances.
Russian officials understand very well that EU accession is not a unilateral process. It is a long-term undertaking that requires commitment from both Yerevan and Brussels. Nevertheless, Moscow is clearly irritated by what it perceives as Armenia’s search for opportunities to shift its geopolitical orientation.
Russia is also uneasy about the increased activity of both the European Union and the United States in the South Caucasus and particularly in Armenia. While the United States is pursuing its own state interests, Moscow believes that the EU is increasingly trying to draw Armenia into an anti-Russian political framework. Such a course does not serve either Armenia’s national interests or even the interests of its current government.
As paradoxical as it may sound, the interests of the Armenian state and those of the Armenian government are not always identical. For Armenia, abruptly severing ties with Russia and burning bridges could create significant security and economic risks. For the Armenian government, however, such a move could also undermine its political position both domestically and internationally. Therefore, it is unlikely that the authorities would take such a drastic step.
Armenia’s leadership appears to be attempting to balance the interests of both Europe and Russia, avoiding actions that would directly threaten either side’s vital interests. However, there are growing signs of concern in Moscow that Armenia is trying to sit on two chairs at once — a position Russia finds unacceptable and has increasingly stated openly.
In essence, Moscow is sending Yerevan a clear message: if Armenia chooses the path toward the European Union, Russia will begin to treat Armenia in much the same way it treats the EU itself — that is, as an adversary.
It should be emphasized once again that Armenia still has a very long road ahead before EU membership could become a realistic possibility. Nevertheless, Moscow may decide not to wait until that process advances significantly and could instead begin taking preventive measures at an earlier stage to discourage such a trajectory.
These tensions are further heightened by statements coming from the European Union suggesting that Armenia should gradually reduce its dependence on Russian influence. Such rhetoric only adds to the growing unease in Moscow regarding Armenia’s future geopolitical direction.
Moscow is taking very seriously everything related to the European Union and the prospect of its further enlargement. This is understandable, given the increasingly hostile nature of relations between Russia and the EU.
At the same time, the need for Armenia to deepen its ties with the European Union and diversify its foreign policy is also understandable. Efforts to diversify Armenia’s external relations were undertaken under all previous Armenian administrations and generally produced positive results.
However, the current situation is fundamentally different. Russia now openly declares that it is engaged in a direct confrontation with the European Union on the Ukrainian front, making all parties involved far more sensitive to developments than in the past. It is precisely in this tense environment that Armenia and the EU are attempting to deepen their relations, while European actors are providing direct political support to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Naturally, Moscow views these developments negatively.
As a result, Armenia may find itself under growing pressure to make a choice between competing geopolitical centers of power. Yet Armenia is in no position to make such a choice at this stage, because any decisive move toward one side would likely be interpreted as a hostile act by the other.
Consequently, the current circumstances require Armenia to exercise considerable caution, patience, and strategic restraint. Avoiding actions that touch upon the most sensitive issues for either side may be essential, as missteps in such a complex geopolitical environment could lead to serious and potentially far-reaching consequences.
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