168: Refuse or take the mandates? This is not the time to be driven by emotions

In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest is political scientist, constitutionalist Vardan Poghosyan is.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• These elections were accompanied by shameful violations and frauds, were held in an atmosphere of unprecedented repression, abuse of administrative resources, hatred and threats by the ruling power, and if we had a normal Constitutional Court, it would have found that the elections were held in an unconstitutional manner and would have annulled the elections. At that time, we could also say in a legal sense that there was a usurpation of power by the CP, with corresponding criminal legal consequences. And in the political sense, yes, what happened is usurpation of power by the CP.

• If they do not take the mandates, from a legal point of view, our “Electoral Code” considers the boycott acceptable, and the respective mandates remain vacant. Let’s imagine that a party completely renounces the mandates of the National Assembly. If all 3 opposition forces that passed the National Assembly give up their mandates, and the parliamentary candidates on their list also express a notarized challenge, then the National Assembly will consist only of the ruling “Civil Contract” (CP) party, which will have 60 mandates. It is a legally debatable issue whether that Parliament has the right to act. If the opposition refuses of the mandates, the KP will go for the amendment of the Electoral Code, they will achieve that the forces that participated in the elections and are the forces supporting the KP will hold a National Assembly. I’m sure that in such a scenario, Arman Tatoyan, who got the next most votes, will not go for a deal, but KP proxies will gladly go for that deal. Only from that point of view, the call to give up mandates to the opposition is very controversial. Even if the CP does not go for it, it does not have a management problem. If the government pours its proxy forces into the Parliament, then the amendment of the new Constitution will not cause a problem for Pashinyan. In my prediction: The boycott of the opposition to give up mandates will lead to the fact that the National Assembly will be completely filled with governmental and pro-governmental forces.:

• If the opposition forces do not give up their mandates and agree to enter the Parliament, then two important problems can be solved. If the PAP succeeds in entering the Parliament, it turns out that the CP will have 60 mandates, the opposition parties – 45. In that case, Pashinyan does not have the necessary 3/5 or 2/3 power ratio, he will not be able to change constitutional laws. All this commotion and persecution related to PAP is done to take 5 mandates and have 3/5. Having a 3/5 is really important. There are many senior positions that cannot be appointed by the CP without that number of votes.

• Throughout the pre-election campaign, the CP talked about the fact that they would have a constitutional majority, and on the night of the vote, their faces showed that they were far from having that number. 

To remind, during the entire campaign, Nikol Pashinyan considered it very realistic to have a Constitutional majority as a result of the elections.

• The National Assembly has the right to put the draft of the new Constitution to a referendum if 2/3 of the total number of deputies approve the draft. If the opposition puts the mandates, the government after filling the Parliament with its proxy forces can have a 5/5 majority to change the Constitution. That’s why I think that mandates should be taken:

• Let’s suppose that the opposition forces refused and put down the mandates, generated a street fight… then?.. How will that fight end if it does not have legal consequences in the Parliament? Article 115 of the Constitution says that the Prime Minister can be changed after one year with the votes of a simple majority of the members of the National Assembly. If the struggle in the street boils over, it is possible to change the Prime Minister by solving the issue of votes of 7-8 MPs, but if the mandates are dropped, it will not be possible to do that.

• Territorial demands, a demand to change the Constitution, a demand to make the territory of Armenia a Corridor, and without having opposition parties in the Parliament, it will not be possible to prevent them.

• All 3 opposition forces entering the Parliament must make a joint statement that they will not cooperate with the ruling power under any circumstances, and their only goal in going to the National Assembly is the change of power. This is, of course, a moral obligation. 

• Regardless of everything, the Parliament will consist of 105 deputies. 50% 1 of 105 is 53. With the votes of that number of deputies, it is possible to carry out a process of expressing no confidence in the Prime Minister. If “Prosperous Armenia” enters the Parliament, then 8 mandates from the CP will be needed in order to change the balance of power in the Parliament.

• The dictatorial regime of KP will do everything to remove the political forces fighting against this regime and even ordinary citizens and public-politicians from the game. But after these announced results, we have nothing to lose as a nation and a state. we have to fight.

• The opposition forces that did not pass the parliament received respectable votes. They have a mission to work with voters. During the last debate of the public television company, the opposition forces showed how deeply they professionally know the issues and should cooperate with each other. The united external pressures of the opposition forces represented in the National Assembly and the opposition forces that did not enter the parliament, including those that did not participate in the elections, should be combined, and in this regard, the emotional appeals to the opposition forces that they should not take the mandates are really incomprehensible to me. From the point of view of political struggle, it is unacceptable to give up the most powerful lever: I understand everyone’s emotions, but we should not be guided by emotions…

• According to the law of the Republic of Armenia, no enclave exists in Armenia, and if any official calls that the issue of enclaves should be resolved, it is a criminal offense because it is an encroachment on the territory of Armenia.

Details in the video.

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