The future of the “3 3” format. What does the real interest of Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi depend on?

Although Moscow has toughened the rhetoric towards official Yerevan, simultaneously applying economic restrictions, Russia hopes that the next meeting at the level of foreign ministers of the South Caucasus “3 3” format (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and their three neighbors Russia, Turkey, Iran) will be held in Baku or Yerevan. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin announced at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “As we understand, the negotiations on this issue continue between our Azerbaijani and Armenian partners,” he said.

RA Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan told the media last year that the next meeting in the “3 3” format could take place either in Yerevan or Baku. “The Republic of Armenia has expressed its readiness to host the regular ministerial meeting of the “3 3″ regional consultative platform. The Republic of Azerbaijan also expressed a similar willingness,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the media. To date, however, there is no exact information about holding the platform meeting in Yerevan or Baku.

“I would especially like to welcome the participation of the representative of Georgian expert circles in our discussion. For us, as for all participants of the platform, Georgia remains an important partner, without which the prospects of “3 3″ are unlikely to be complete. I hope that over time official Tbilisi will also join our work,” added Galuzin.

Official Tbilisi regularly announces that Georgia will not participate in meetings in this format. From Moscow, however, they continue to declare that the doors of the “3 3” format are always open for Georgia. In addition, Moscow has been announcing for months that the next meeting in this format will be held in Yerevan and Baku, but the meeting in this format never takes place.

Russian analyst Vladimir Yevseyev of 168.amtold that the Russian announcement on holding the meeting of the “3 3” platform in Yerevan or Baku once again emphasizes the discontinuity that exists in this format.

According to him, although the Russian side tries to present the failure of the meeting as a purely technical or logistical problem related to the choice of the host city, in reality the reasons are deep geopolitical. He also drew attention to the current situation in Armenian-Russian relations, as well as Armenia’s desire to join EAEU and EU.

Yevseyev believes that in general nothing surprising happens, the processes are a logical continuation of each other, the lack of agreement between Yerevan and Baku or the months-long negotiation on this topic is not the result of organizational incompetence, but the tactical steps of the parties, where each has its own calculations in the new architecture of the South Caucasus.

“With these delays, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are solving the problem of weakening or at least limiting the influence of Russia and Iran in the region in their own way.

At this stage, the “3 3” format is promoted by Moscow and Tehran as a tool to block the access of extra-regional powers to the South Caucasus and to solve all issues at the “local level”, where they have a decisive voice. Avoiding or postponing meetings in this format, Yerevan and Baku do not allow these two powers to fully control the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement process and dictate their own agenda. And the main reason is very simple, because there is active cooperation with the West, the USA and the EU,” Yevseyev said.

According to him, the postponement of the meeting for Armenia fits into the logic of diversification of foreign policy and deepening of relations with Western partners.

According to Yevseyev, Yerevan seeks to avoid platforms that are only under the influence of Russia and Iran, because they limit the involvement of the West in the region, especially in a situation where Armenia wants to maintain only the economic agenda with Russia, seeking to maintain membership in the EAEU, but having an agenda for EU membership. He clarified that if the West is actively working to strengthen its own agenda, isolating Russia and Iran, then why should it be interested in the development of a new format?

“Therefore, neither Yerevan nor Baku is interested in “3 3”, the Russian Federation understands this very well, but does not give up on that format, because at some stage it may be necessary, and at some stage positions may change.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan, although outwardly in favor of the withdrawal of extra-regional forces, is also not interested in the strengthened positions of Russia or Iran. Baku prefers direct, bilateral negotiations with Armenia without any mediator. Therefore, this diplomatic “dead end” created around “3 3″, although it is not accidental, it shows the changed geopolitical architecture in the South Caucasus,” he said.

Speaking V:about the lack of interest of Russia, the analyst said that the lack of interest in the “3 3” format in the case of Georgia has fundamental political grounds due to the lack of diplomatic relations with Russia.

“It is difficult for Tbilisi to imagine participating in a platform where Moscow is a key player, but this position can be transformed over time if Georgia’s positions are softened. Russia initially believed that Georgia would participate in the format and not be left out of regional cooperation, but Georgia began to strengthen contacts with Yerevan and Baku. Although I should note that this positioning can change,” Yevseyev noted.

The analyst believes that along with all this, the factor of Turkey should not be ignored, which, being one of the initiators of the “3 3” format, is more inclined to activate Ankara-Baku-Yerevan direct or tripartite connections than to act on a common platform with Moscow and Tehran.

“Ankara also seeks to maximize its own influence in the South Caucasus, and the weakening of the positions of Russia and Iran fits into the context of Turkish geopolitical interests. As a result, a situation is obtained where the freezing of the “3 3″ format, albeit with different motives, is beneficial to almost all the main regional players,” he said.

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