Verelq: Elections, TRIPP and minerals. How is the USA strengthening RA?

On the eve of the parliamentary elections, the internal political agenda of Armenia is closely intertwined with the unprecedented dynamics of the foreign political vector. The signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with the US, as well as the acceleration of initiatives on the ambitious TRIPP logistics project and the memorandum on critical minerals, bring Armenian-American relations to a fundamentally new level. Washington has a clear interest in the long-term strengthening of the South Caucasus, the development of regional transport corridors and access to resources. viewed not only as an element of a peaceful settlement, but also in the context of a global confrontation with China.

However, such activity of the Western power centers inevitably disrupts the established balance in the region, causing the open caution and opposition of the traditional players, first of all, Russia and Iran. In the conditions when large infrastructural projects become not so much a tool of economic development as a lever of harsh political influence, Yerevan faces a complex existential problem.

Will Armenia be able to gain real economic benefit from the competition of world powers by ensuring the safety of new transit routes, or does the country risk being in the epicenter of a geopolitical conflict? About whether there is an attempt to support the current government before the elections in the actions of the American administration, how the TRIPP Development Company will actually work, and why Armenia’s diplomatic avoidance field is rapidly narrowing, VERELQpresented a political scientist in an interview Davit Harutyunov:

VERELQ. How would you interpret the signing of agreements on comprehensive strategic partnership and TRIPP project on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Armenia? Is there a pre-election context in it, is it perceived as support for the current government?

Davit Harutyunov. Two factors are most likely present. It is both the pre-election aspect, that is, the attempt to support the current authorities of Armenia, which was later announced by the US president. But this is also a component of the continuation of US activity in the region and particularly in Armenia, as well as the development of the TRIPP project. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the document on strategic partnership was signed by Yerevan and Washington during the time of the Biden administration, and it is obvious that the current US authorities have decided to renew these commitments, which reflects their interest in the region.

VERELQ. Given that the TRIPP route is considered a key element of a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, how do you think the US plans to ensure the security and economic viability of this route in the face of potential geopolitical risks and opposition from other regional players?

Davit Harutyunov. For now, all aspects of the actual implementation of the project remain uncertain, as it exists in the form of documents. At the same time, the experience of conducting similar routes in other countries proves that they are combined with the active and multi-faceted presence of the USA in the given country. Whether this option will be implemented in Armenia also largely depends on the degree of priority of the project for Washington and the intensity of opposition to its implementation.

VERELQ. What role will TRIPP Development Company play in the infrastructure development of Armenia and regional geopolitics?

Davit Harutyunov. Judging by the available information, there is still no particular clarity in this regard, and the implementation of this document will most likely require studies and additional investments. Moreover, this memorandum itself can still be considered not so much in the context of concrete projects in Armenia, but in the context of the priority of the topic of minerals of critical importance for the US administration in the conditions of competition with China.

VERELQ. It is noted that the memorandum of cooperation between Armenia and the USA in the field of critical minerals opens up new opportunities for Armenia. Meanwhile, the question arises: what are the mechanisms that will ensure that the extraction and processing of these resources are carried out for the benefit of Armenia and its economy?

Davit Harutyunov. It is obvious that the activity of the USA and the EU is already causing a reaction. Iran is currently focused on the conflict with the USA, so, as we can see, Russia is showing the greatest activity in this regard. At the same time, Moscow’s criticism and actions are mainly focused on Armenia’s cooperation with the EU. This situation may reflect the current state of aggravation of relations between the EU and Russia, while maintaining Moscow’s contacts with Washington, particularly on the Ukrainian issue. However, it is clear that the activity of the USA also arouses the dissatisfaction of the Russian side, albeit more discreetly.

VERELQ. How does the strengthening of the US presence in the South Caucasus affect the balance of power in the region, and how do other key players react to it, particularly Russia, which warns of the consequences of Armenia’s rapprochement with the West?

Davit Harutyunov. At the same time, this situation reflects the systemic complications that Armenia faces in the face of intensifying competition between global power centers. Active rapprochement with the West provokes Russian opposition, but a sharp revision of that course and a possible abandonment of the agreements reached, including TRIPP, will cause similar pressure already from the US and the EU. It will also be difficult for Armenia to endure it. In this regard, it is noteworthy that the Armenian opposition political forces participating in the parliamentary elections practically do not talk about the termination of the TRIPP agreement, but rather point out the need to revise or change it. In general, in the current situation, the only option for Armenia remains to dodge between the power centers, but the field for such maneuvering is objectively narrowing.

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