Poll points to landslide win for Armenia’s Pashinyan as Russia steps up pressu

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party is on course for a commanding victory in next week’s parliamentary election, according to a new opinion poll, even as Russia escalates diplomatic and economic pressure over Yerevan’s increasingly pro-Western foreign policy.

A survey conducted by Breavis between May 5 and May 11 among 1,551 respondents found Civil Contract would secure nearly 65% of decided voters ahead of the June 7 election, far ahead of a fragmented opposition in which no party exceeded 12%, reported Euronews.

If confirmed at the ballot box, the result would hand Pashinyan a powerful mandate to continue Armenia’s strategic shift away from its traditional ally Russia and deepen ties with the European Union and United States.

The poll comes at a time of mounting tensions between Moscow and Yerevan. On May 30, Russia announced it had recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations, citing concerns over Armenia’s growing engagement with the European Union.

“The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia, S.P. Kopyrkin, has been summoned to Moscow for consultations in connection with the steps taken by the Armenian leadership to move closer to the European Union, which are detrimental to cooperation within the EAEU,” Russia’s foreign ministry said.

The diplomatic move followed a warning from leaders of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), who said Armenia’s pursuit of closer EU integration posed “significant risks to the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union.”

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated sharply since Pashinyan came to power in 2018. Yerevan has accused Moscow of failing to provide adequate support during successive confrontations with Azerbaijan, particularly after Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh that triggered the exodus of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region.

Armenia subsequently froze its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and has sought closer cooperation with Western partners.

The geopolitical stakes surrounding the election have intensified following a Reuters report that Western intelligence and government officials believe Russia has expanded efforts to undermine Pashinyan’s government before the vote.

According to Reuters, Russian officials discussed transporting large numbers of Russia-based Armenians to Armenia in an effort to influence the election outcome. Five Western intelligence sources cited by the news agency said Moscow examined ways to physically bring voters to Armenia, where citizens living abroad are not permitted to vote remotely.

“Russian authorities calculated a cost of about $50mn to transport 100,000 voters,” Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the discussions.

Russia’s foreign ministry dismissed the report, accusing Reuters of publishing false information and promoting “anti-Russian rhetoric”.

The election campaign has also drawn unusual international attention. On May 27, US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Pashinyan, describing him as “a great friend and leader”.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Pashinyan “completely shares my vision of PEACE and PROSPERITY for Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region” and had his “COMPLETE and TOTAL Endorsement for Re-Election on June 7, 2026.”

Washington has deepened engagement with Armenia through new economic and security initiatives linked to a US-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Despite political tensions, Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner and dominant energy supplier. In recent weeks Moscow has imposed restrictions on several Armenian imports and warned that closer integration with Europe could carry economic consequences.