What is really hidden behind Marco Rubio’s visit to Yerevan?

Of course, Rubio’s visit to Yerevan had several features that are worth paying attention to. However, it was not only that he did not meet the Prime Minister of Armenia. In this analysis, I would like to focus a little on the documents that were signed.

Minerals. The US and China are in serious competition over minerals, especially critical minerals. Washington’s main goals in this area are to reduce its own dependence on Chinese supplies and at the same time establish influence in resource-rich countries in the mining sector. For this purpose, the USA has signed similar agreements with Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia, Kazakhstan and dozens of other countries. By the way, one of the justifications for US aspirations towards Greenland is its mineral wealth, which the Trump administration has repeatedly talked about.

Classification of strategic partnerships. From the point of view of strategic relations, it is important to understand that the US classifies diplomatic relations with different countries as follows:

• Allied relations (UK, Canada),

• Strategic partnership (Vietnam, Kazakhstan),

• Comprehensive strategic partnership (India);

• Comprehensive partnership (Indonesia, Singapore),

• Main ally outside NATO (Israel, Australia),

• NATO member allies

• Other friendly countries.

In this context, it can be said that Armenia has raised the level of its relations to a certain extent, but naturally there can be no question of alliance relations.

TRIPP. The TRIPP factor is important for understanding the current approaches of the USA in the South Caucasus. The US has two main priorities in the region: bringing the TRIPP project to life and increasing pressure on Iran. An important aspect of TRIPP is often overlooked by the public. It is an important element of US regional strategy, but not the only one. Its purpose is to export energy carriers from Central Asia to Europe through the South Caucasus and Turkey, bypassing China, Russia and Iran. In fact, China seeks and has already partially achieved the strengthening of its influence on the energy resources of Central Asia. It needs reliable export routes to Europe, which can also be implemented within the framework of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The US, for its part, seeks to create difficulties for China by limiting its export opportunities, using various tools, from sanctions to the promotion of its own regional projects. In other words, if China largely controls the energy resources of Central Asia, the USA, with competitive logic, tries to control possible transit corridors to Europe. One of the main obstacles to the export from Central Asia to Europe was that, in case of reaching Azerbaijan through the Caspian Sea, the transfer of resources to Turkey would have to pass through the territory of Iran (or more recently, Georgia), which was not in the interests of Washington. In the case of TRIPP, that corridor is secured through the territory of Armenia, bypassing Iran, while bypassing Russia and creating additional complications for China, limiting access to alternative logistics routes.

In other words, the Trump administration is quite effectively advancing American interests in the South Caucasus, and the Armenian authorities, naturally, do not create any obstacles for the US in this global competition and, accordingly, enjoy the support of Washington.

International scholar Suren Sargsyan

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