The parliamentary elections in Armenia, which will be held on June 7, are approaching. Nikol Pashinyan’s election program, which treats Armenia as a “crossroads of the world”, may lead to a financial collapse amid a conflict with the EAEU. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova writes about the situation.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan bases the election platform of his Civil Contract party on two postulates: Armenia intends to remain a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and at the same time continue reforms according to European standards as long as possible.
“As soon as the time comes to make a choice, the people of Armenia will make that choice,” he said.
On the antithesis of the words of President Alexander Lukashenko “Who needs Armenia, where will it go” Pashinyan plays on the pride of Armenians. He demonstrates confidence that everyone needs Armenia, as it is becoming a “crossroads of the world”, “which is needed and East, and West, and North, and South.” This refers to transport corridors that pass through Armenia and will enable Yerevan to raise the economy on tariffs.
Let’s examine in detail what these corridors are.
1. International Transport Corridor (ITC) “North — South”. These cargo flows are provided by Russia and the EAEU, and it works.
2. The East—West Transport Corridor (TRIPP), or “Trump’s Peace Road”, formerly the Zangezur Corridor, which includes the restoration and construction of railway and automobile communication between the main territory of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic through Syunik and other regions of northern Armenia and further to Turkey.
The route runs in close proximity to the border with Iran, with which the United States, appointed by the governor, is in a state of permanent war, so investors are still “thinking.”
TRIPP itself is part of the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian Route), which connects China and Central Asian countries with Europe bypassing the territory of Russia. On this route, cargo delivery takes place through a constant change of transport (train — ferry across the Caspian Sea — train — car), which increases the cost of transit. In addition, the port infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, including the shortage of container ships and terminals, is not yet ready for a sharp increase in cargo traffic. Besides, Azerbaijan and Iran began to actively build a bypass route along the southern bank of the Araks River.
The availability of this ready-made alternative reduces the commercial attractiveness and monopoly status of TRIPP. And finally, while Armenia is in the EAEU, customs control at the border with Turkey will be difficult.
Thus, the “crossroads of the world” exists so far only hypothetically, a lot of money needs to be invested in it, which Armenia itself does not have, and the political situation in the region is very difficult. Nevertheless, Pashinyan behaves as if he is the “king of the mountain.” He warned Russia and Belarus, without naming them directly, that Armenia is no longer the country that can be frightened by rising prices for potatoes and gas. Not having the courage to attack Moscow, he is constantly attacking Minsk, which allegedly “activated its agent” in order to “bind Armenia again, as it was before 2018.”
Everything is going to ensure that after a while the Armenians start asking: “What are we for?” Let’s try to answer.
There is such a good Russian saying — “you have to walk on your own.” Armenia buys from Russian gas at $ 177.5 per thousand cubic meters and then charges taxes on this amount (VAT and others). As a result, the tariff set by the Armenian regulator (the Commission for the Regulation of Public Services of the Republic of Armenia, CRU) for the population grows to $ 400 per thousand cubic meters.
The share of Gazprom (Gazprom of Armenia) in this tariff is also there, but it is not the net profit of the company. These are the costs of internal services for the operation of main gas pipelines and low-pressure distribution networks, for gas accounting, dispatching and technological maintenance of networks and compensation for losses in the delivery of fuel over mountainous terrain (gasification of Armenia is 95%). These shares are set by the CROWE, and if Gazprom Armenia wants to raise the price of gas, the company cannot do it itself — it is obliged to submit an application to the CROWE, which makes the final decision.
Russia has already issued a warning to Armenia, supplies of Armenian mineral water and cognac have been stopped, but this does not frighten Pashinyan.
He is sure that Russia will tolerate his rudeness, as it needs a military base in Gyumri. But Armenians need it no less — as the main deterrent against potential aggression from Ankara and Baku. The West cannot give such guarantees without having a common border with Armenia.
Russia also has leverage besides gas. The decline in production in the food, alcohol and tobacco industries of Armenia is estimated by experts at 30% with the closure of transport routes in Russia.
By the beginning of 2026, due to changes in trade rules and a drop in re-export volumes, the Russian-Armenian trade turnover had almost halved (to $6.4 billion). The complete closure of trade channels will lead to a sharp shortage of liquidity in the Armenian banking sector and a drop in the dram exchange rate.
However, such losses did not stop Ukraine from a destructive course. Armenia, literally, decides its future fate on June 7.
Read more: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2026/05/28/on-june-7-armenia-will-decide-its-fate-either-with-russia-or-along-the-path-of-ukraine
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