Lavrov’s hidden threat. What can Armenia lose to the European aspiration?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov referred to Armenia’s European aspirations, stating that the European Union is pulling Armenia into its orbit, and Yerevan is in danger of losing all its privileges within the EAEU framework. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said during the press conference held in New Delhi on the results of his participation in the BRICS ministerial meeting that Russia has close but not easy relations with Armenia.

“Those relations are close, allied. But at the same time, they are not easy,” Sergey Lavrov said, asserting that the West is trying to subjugate Armenia, like some other CIS members, “to break Armenia’s mutually beneficial economic, trade, and investment ties with its partners in the CIS and EAEU.”

“It is true, I heard that Prime Minister Pashinyan mentioned that he is busy with pre-election affairs and will not be able to go to the meeting of the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union. It would be sad, of course, because this is a good opportunity to discuss the things that are hanging in the air,” the Russian Foreign Minister added.

Lavrov noted that EAEU member states will be able to discuss the issues related to attempts to bring Armenia into the sphere of influence of the West at the unification summit to be held in May.

“Now, I think, will be an optimal opportunity to discuss the problems that arise due to the fact that the European Union insists on bringing Armenia into its sphere of influence, including at the cost of risking the privileges that Armenia has under the Eurasian Economic Union. The opportunity to honestly and sincerely discuss all these issues will appear at the end of the last week of May, when the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, the summit, will take place in Kazakhstan,” Lavrov said.

Along with this discourse, the RA authorities claim that they have no plans to leave the EAEU, they do not want to be “extorted” from the Russian Federation. “If I were to conduct a policy contrary to the EAEU, the EAEU would be in a paralyzed state today, because decisions in that structure are made by consensus, and no decision can be made if I am against that decision,” Nikol Pashinyan said.

These statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New Delhi can be described as a combination of “soft power” and direct diplomatic pressure implemented by Moscow. Lavrov’s words that Yerevan “risks losing all its privileges within the framework of the EAEU” are beyond the scope of ordinary diplomatic rhetoric and carry the nature of a threat.

Economic privileges as political leverage

The “loss of privileges” pointed out by Lavrov first of all refers to energy tariffs, preferential customs regimes and access to the Russian market. This is a direct hint that economic mutual benefit for Moscow is no longer a derivative of political loyalty. If earlier the EAEU was presented as a purely economic project, now Russia openly uses it as a braking mechanism to curb the Western aspirations of the Armenian authorities.

The double-edged sword of consensus

If Pashinyan emphasizes that Armenia can paralyze the structure by using the right of consensus, Lavrov’s words suggest the opposite scenario. Consensus can also work against Armenia. Other EAEU members, at the urging of Moscow or out of their own interests, can block economic initiatives of vital importance for Yerevan. Lavrov’s review of the May summit allows us to conclude that Moscow is preparing to subject Armenia to a “collective interrogation” within a narrow circle of EAEU member states.

“Questions hanging in the air” and the inevitability of drastic steps

Lavrov’s wording, “to discuss the issues that are hanging in the air”, indicates that Russia has accumulated a stock of grievances that no longer fits into the domain of labor discussions. The “sadness” of the Russian Foreign Minister regarding Pashinyan’s possible absence is not a personal regret, but a political impulse. Moscow is no longer inclined to tolerate the policy of “and-and” or, as the RA authorities claim, the policy of balancing, but how Moscow will be able to block this policy is still a question.

However, one thing is obvious: Russia has decided to take drastic measures. This can be expressed in the form of “soft” sanctions, which can be legally formulated as a requirement of EAEU standards, but in reality will be political sanctions.

For Armenia, a situation is emerging where insistence on not leaving the EAEU may not be enough to preserve the economic benefits of membership, as Moscow now puts the question directly: either complete integration and rejection of the Western vector, or nullification of “privileges”.

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