Chain prerequisites. Is Armenian-Turkish reconciliation possible without Baku?

“The Armenian-Turkish dialogue is so mature that at any moment we can even have a complete settlement,” said Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan today.

He recorded that the Armenian-Turkish border still remains closed, but expressed confidence that “that border will be opened one day in the future”.

“The goods will already be imported directly, now in terms of customs, directly, but physically, transit will be done through Georgia and will enter Armenia,” said Mirzoyan.

Yesterday, it became known that Yerevan and Ankara have completed preparations for the start of direct trade between the two countries. Ruben Rubinyan, special envoy for the regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations, noted that direct trade between Armenia and Turkey has become possible in the customs sense, without reformulations. Serdar Kılıç, Turkey’s special envoy for the Armenian-Turkish settlement, posted on the “X” page about the start of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia.

He shared the message issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and noted.

“Another important step has been taken for the establishment of stable peace and stability in the region within the framework of the ongoing process of normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations under the instructions of our president. I want this to be successful first for the residents of both countries, and then for all the businessmen and people of our region.”

The USA and the EU welcomed this milestone in Armenian-Turkish relations.

On May 4, Nikol Pashinyan met with the Vice President of the Republic of Turkey Cevdet Yilmaz within the framework of the European Political Community Summit. As a result of the meeting, the protocol for the joint restoration of the historic Ani (Silk Road) bridge located on the border between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey was signed.

168.amin a conversation with Russian Turkologist, orientalist Victor Nadein-Raevsky said that the consensus formed in Armenian-Turkish political contacts is clearly visible, which leads to small steps towards the Armenian-Turkish settlement.

However, according to him, there is certainly also an idea and perception that the full Armenian-Turkish settlement will probably take place after the signing of the RA-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement.

“Otherwise, it is difficult to understand why this settlement has not already taken place, why diplomatic relations have not been established, and why the border has not been opened. Turkey is just waiting for the final confirmations in the Armenian-Adrijan process, because, firstly, economically, then politically, it is not interested in an early settlement with Armenia, and it also acts in coordination with Azerbaijan.

In other words, Azerbaijan has not yet given a “green light” for the final Armenian-Turkish settlement, when they declare that there is already peace in the region. I think that these small steps will be continuous, but the big records will be maybe after months,” said Viktor Nadein-Raevsky.

He believes that peace and open borders are positive especially for those countries that are small and have lived with closed borders for a long time.

“However, Armenia should also have a correct understanding of what is expected after the open borders with Turkey, after trade, independent research is needed, because the results may differ significantly from the expectations of people and political forces. Turkey has an extremely developed, cheap production, whose entry into the Armenian market will create a new situation, perhaps problems or opportunities.

I think we should be prepared for different scenarios, taking into account the strong Turkish capital, developed industry, whether there are relevant researches, as well as the Armenian market, the local producer should position himself, prepare for such a scenario, how the economy should work. This should be interpreted by economists, but it is wrong when we interpret the events from a political point of view,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, the assessment that the Armenian-Turkish dialogue has matured is perhaps correct, but the expectation that there can be a complete settlement at any moment is exaggerated.

“Why is it exaggerated, because Azerbaijan expects constitutional changes, after which only Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, only after that there should be full Armenian-Turkish settlement. These are the chain preconditions that are necessary for full regulation in the region. Therefore, without the solution of all the issues with Azerbaijan and the issues that Azerbaijan constantly raises, I think there will not be a complete lifting of the blockade in the Turkish direction,” he said.

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