Parliamentary elections are set to be held in Armenia on 7 June.
According to Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan, Russia is planning to gain control over Armenia’s state institutions. “We will not allow the Republic of Armenia to be turned into a ‘guberniya’ [a Russian province]. We will not be ruled the way Belarus is,” the speaker said.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Ministry claims that Europe is trying to “drag Armenia into an anti-Russian orbit” and says it is aware of plans to involve the country in “aggressive Euro-Atlantic standards”.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasised that there is an option for a “soft, intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce” – namely, putting the issue of EU accession to a nationwide referendum.
In practice, the 7 June elections are expected to play the role of such a vote.
Read more about the parliamentary elections in Armenia in the article by Yurii Panchenko, co-founder of European Pravda: The Kremlin’s new enemy: how Russia is trying to change power in Armenia and what EU has to do with it.
“The EU recognises the European aspirations of the Armenian people, based on the adoption of the ‘Law on Launching the Process of Armenia’s Accession to the EU’ in March 2025, which expresses the country’s intention to move towards the EU,” reads the declaration adopted at the Armenia-EU summit held in Yerevan on 5 May.
For the EU, this statement carries no concrete commitments. For example, the EU first acknowledged Ukraine’s European aspirations and European choice as far back as 1999. However, in Yerevan, the summit’s outcome was interpreted as a sign that the EU is ready for dialogue with Armenia on accession.
Among the reasons Armenia still maintains a “multi-vector” foreign policy and has not yet begun practical steps towards membership is the absence of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
Yerevan understands that closer ties with the EU would mean a final break with Russia. Taking such a step without lasting peace with Azerbaijan and, accordingly, with Türkiye, would be too risky.
A peace agreement has still not been signed because Azerbaijan demands that Armenia remove references to Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) from its constitution, which Baku interprets as a territorial claim.
The problem is that this reference is included in the protected part of Armenia’s constitution, meaning any amendment would require a nationwide referendum – something Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has so far been reluctant to hold. However, many believe that if his party wins the parliamentary elections again, the government will be ready to organise such a referendum.
That would remove the need to “mask” Armenia’s movement towards the EU and its withdrawal from Russian-led integration structures.
According to a May poll published by EVN Report, Prime Minister Pashinyan’s party can count on the support of 32.5% of respondents.
Three pro-Russian political forces follow behind, but their ratings are significantly lower.
Until recently, pro-Russian groups had much stronger prospects, but current polling suggests that Pashinyan’s team has a good chance of remaining in power.
Of course, fresh polls can be inaccurate; moreover, a significant share of respondents remain undecided (14.1%) or refused to answer (25.4%). Still, the likelihood that these voters will deliver victory to pro-Russian forces does not appear especially high.
In addition, unlike Pashinyan, none of the pro-Russian politicians can offer a credible vision for the future.
Now, after several perceived betrayals by the Russian military during Armenia’s confrontation with Azerbaijan, Armenians increasingly understand that Russia will not fight for Armenian interests regardless of who is in power.
As a result, it has become difficult for Kremlin-aligned actors to sustain hope among their voters.
The 7 June elections could become a turning point and launch a process that would bring the country into the European family of nations.
However, the stakes are extremely high. Russia is not hiding the fact that it intends to block Yerevan’s geopolitical pivot. Much will depend on whether the EU is prepared to help Armenia defend its choice.
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Disclaimer: This article was contributed and translated into English by Ophelia Vardapetian. While we strive for quality, the views and accuracy of the content remain the responsibility of the contributor. Please verify all facts independently before reposting or citing.
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