Zelensky’s visit to Yerevan is in the center of attention of Moscow and Tehran. ինչպիսի՞ ա

The 8th summit of the European Political Community to be held on May 4 will be followed by the first Armenia-European Union summit, which will take place on May 5. The other day, Nikol Pashinyan announced during a briefing after the session of the RA government that he is waiting for all members of the European political community in Armenia, including the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Earlier 168․am-ը, հղում անելով դիվանագիտական աղբյուրներին, գրել էր, որ Զելենսկին կժամանի Երևան՝ մասնակցելու Եվրոպական քաղաքական համայնքի մայիսյան գագաթնաժողովին: It is noteworthy that he was in Azerbaijan a few days ago. According to a number of estimates, the visit to Azerbaijan was conditioned by the need to maintain parity with the visit to Armenia.

It should be noted that on May 4, the 8th summit of the European Political Community founded by French President Emmanuel Macron will be held in Yerevan, which will be followed by the first Armenia-European Union summit on May 5. On those days, about 50 high-ranking delegations will arrive in Armenia, including the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

French President Emmanuel Macron will also be in Armenia on May 3-5. He will participate in the summit of European leaders, after which his state visit to the Republic of Armenia will begin.

The upcoming visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Armenia to participate in the summit of the European Political Community is beyond the purely ceremonial field and has multi-layered political significance, especially in the context of Armenian-Russian and Armenian-Iranian relations. Armenia’s acceptance of Zelensky in Moscow will most likely be perceived not as a neutral diplomatic step, but as a certain geopolitical impulse. In that logic, Zelensky’s presence in Yerevan can be considered as another manifestation of Armenia’s more visible integration into Western platforms.

At the same time, Yerevan is trying to demonstrate a “multi-vector” foreign policy, not severing relations with Russia, but activating and deepening political ties with European structures and the West. These aspirations of Yerevan have received a number of messages, impulses, warnings from Moscow, and now, steps similar to economic “sanctions”.

Russia is beginning to react harshly to such “multi-vector” manifestations, especially from those countries that have traditionally been considered in its sphere of influence. Therefore, if Yerevan tries to present the visit as a normal diplomatic contact within the multilateral platform, Moscow will interpret it as another manifestation of political alienation.

In recent years, a crisis of trust has already been observed between Yerevan and Moscow. Zelensky’s visit can deepen that perception, especially in the Russian media-discourse.

Russia has concrete instruments of influence over Armenia: gas, energy system, labor market, business, so pressures are possible, taking into account that Armenian business is already starting to face problems in Russia. Most likely, Zelensky’s visit to Armenia will not cause a sharp break in Armenian-Russian relations, but it will become another impulse in the process of deepening mistrust and collision of different geopolitical vectors.

Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to Armenia within the framework of the European Political Community will most likely be perceived by Moscow not as a technical episode of the multilateral format, but as an indicator of political position. In Russia’s foreign policy thinking, the issue of Ukraine has a systemic importance, and any diplomatic activity related to Zelensky is considered in the context of this broad contrast.

Under these conditions, Russia’s response can be harsh, especially at the level of rhetoric and political impulses.

It is also not excluded that this visit will receive some reactions from the Islamic Republic of Iran, because during the US-Israel war against Iran, Vladimir Zelensky stood out for his strong anti-Iranian positions and statements, appearing in the center of attention of the leaders of Iran. It is difficult to say what the RA government gets by accepting the pro-Azerbaijani Zelensky. Maybe the European officials will once again be convinced that the RA authorities are steadfast in their commitment to European integration.

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