Zelensky’s visit is a risky symbol. even in the worst dreams of Kocharyan or Sar

Russian political scientist Sergey Markedonov referred to the 8th and 1st Armenia-European Union summits of the European Political Community Platform to be held in Yerevan on May 4-5, and against that background, Vladimir Zelensky’s expected visit to Yerevan.

Markedonov wrote on his Telegram page “Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to Yerevan. a diplomatic impulse or just a procedural element of the summit?” writes that at first glance, the significance of Zelensky’s personal presence at those events should not be overestimated. with or without his participation, the ideological direction of the Yerevan forums is obvious.

The analyst reminds that last year, while summarizing the results of the EEC Summit in Copenhagen, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated: “It is clear to everyone that Russia is a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to the whole of Europe.”

Of course, according to him, the leaders of EU countries do not represent the whole world, but it is important for Russia to understand and convey the general atmosphere of this political “networking”.

“Nevertheless, if Zelensky really visits Armenia, the importance of that visit should not be underestimated. Firstly, after the collapse of the USSR, high-level Armenian-Ukrainian contacts were quite limited. Leonid Kuchma, the second president of Ukraine, visited Yerevan in May 1996 and October 2022. Viktor Yanukovych was also in Armenia, but as the head of the government, participating in the events dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the Spitak earthquake. The third president of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, visited Kiev three times (once to participate in the inauguration of Yanukovych, then on an official visit, and once again for the purpose of negotiations and watching the final match of Euro-2012). Basically, this is the whole picture. In the post-Soviet period, Ukraine became a strategic partner of Azerbaijan. Let’s add to that his marked departure from Moscow (recall that Kuchma’s book “Ukraine is not Russia” was published ten years before the “second Maidan”). However, today, Armenia, which after 1991, unlike Azerbaijan, chose the path of a strategic ally with Russia, is on the path of revising its foreign policy approaches. Markedonov notes, adding that complementary policies and diversification have always been among Yerevan’s priorities.

Markedonov reminds that the idea of ​​complementarity was put into circulation during the presidency of Robert Kocharyan, and the “CEPA” agreement was signed by Serzh Sargsyan. However, according to Markedonov, there is a fundamental difference. at that time, other directions simply complemented the main Russian vector, not overshadowing it.

“Even in their worst dreams, Kocharyan or Sargsyan would not have thought of the formula ‘CSTO is a threat to Armenia’.” writes Markedonov.

Today, in his opinion, the RA authorities have other priorities.

“And although EU membership is not a real prospect for Yerevan (unlike Tbilisi, Armenia does not even have the status of a candidate country), the authorities are trying to get closer to Brussels, sometimes even ignoring the obvious economic advantages arising from the EAEU and cooperation with Russia.” In this context, Zelensky’s visit to Yerevan may become an important (and for some, risky) symbol of the new stage of Armenia’s foreign policy diversification. It can outline the future path of the country, in case of electoral success of the “Civil Pact”. It is not excluded that the situation reminds the lines of the famous song of the late 1980s: “you left your home shore, but you never reached the other”. After all, Ukraine did not become a full “European coast” in 2013-2026.․ In Brussels, it is seen more as a European border (frontier). However, unlike Armenia, Ukraine is at least geographically located in Europe. At the same time, by confronting Russia, Kiev is also trying to become active in the regions that are of particular importance for Moscow, in the Middle East and the South Caucasus.” writes Sergey Markedonov.

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