The failure of the TRIPP project will freeze Armenia’s relations with Baku and Ankara

This is evidenced both by the statements made by Armenia and the general processes. The Armenian authorities actually linked the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations exclusively with the implementation of the TRIPP project, while Turkey, in turn, conditions the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations with the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. As a result, a chain consisting of three interrelated processes was formed: implementation of the TRIPP project, regulation of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations, which became a complete package dependent on each other. Under these conditions, the failure of any one of them immediately affects the others.

At the moment, there is no significant progress in the direction of TRIPP, which implies a slowdown in other processes as well. The project’s implementation prospects partly depend on Iran-US relations. During the last war, Iran has repeatedly shown that it can attack not only American military but also economic initiatives in the region, such as TRIPP. Therefore, the implementation of the project depends not only on the USA, but also on Iran.

As for Azerbaijan, if TRIPP is not implemented for various reasons, Baku will naturally follow its “Zangezur Corridor”. Whether it will be called TRIPP or Zangezur Corridor, its strategic objective will remain the same, but the moderator will be different.

Thus, the following logic is formed: if there is no TRIPP, it is difficult to imagine the progress of Armenian-Azerbaijani peace and the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. And if TRIPP is not implemented, the possibility of alternative, riskier scenarios increases. The lack of alternatives is another failure of the Armenian government’s foreign policy calculations.

Political scientist Suren Sargsyan

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